Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

"over the years, there's been alot of issues with the business" - 🤣🤣 there certainly have!

Mr Brian - i agree, very funny 😂

Trenners - fair play as that post did have me laughing!😆👍😎☀️ - have a jolly weekend all 👍

Richeyroo - Have you given consideration to going large on a select few FTSE 250 stocks?

Reasoning: UK BoE rates are likely to drop sharply at some point over the forward 0-16 months - exactly when they drop is challenging to predict but I am of the view that when they do so they'll rapidly fall to around 2-2.25% (lower than many economists project). IMV it makes little sense locking up cash into bonds when there's good odds on a big and long bull run for SME's here in UK in the not too distant future. It's why I'm busy snaffling up FTSE250 stocks, carefully and gradually mind you. I'm not buying into any market trackers, funds or commodities (the latter I think will see deflation soon and the former always have the fund managers taking a slice of your gains).

DYOR - IMO

I asked Google AI the following question: 'Is the capita PLC turnaround plan working?'

It replied: "While Capita's turnaround plan, known as the "Better Capita" strategy, is showing significant progress, its ultimate success is not yet guaranteed. The company has shown improvements in profitability, debt reduction, and client relations, but faces ongoing challenges in revenue decline and cash flow."

DrMaze - Firstly, thanks for sharing your calcs and thinking. Secondly, FWIW I broadly agree with the figs you've put forwards there - I can't see any are majorly out of line.

However, what I think is an issue though is the assumption of healthy and growing passenger No's beyond FY 2025. That's because it's clear to me unemployment is drifting upwards, vacancies too - that looks bound to shift consumers into a state of 'cautious spending' once these summer months have ended i.e. I'm expecting forward bookings for summer 2026 to fall short of expectations when those figures begin landing.

EZJ is hugely reliant on volume, all the budget carriers are tbh and I hold the view the forward volumes are going to be lacklustre... Meaning EZJ will be reliant on elevated ticket prices, something I think is going to come under increasing pressure, deflation, with consumers holding back, and rejecting high ticket prices - where up till now they've tended to tolerate those high prices. It will not be long before the European economies begin to see deflation hitting the headlines and a bitter war of attrition commences... between value hunting customers v.s. revenue hunting businesses. EZJ does have an edge when it comes to its debt levels but... EZJ shareholders may well get caught in the middle of that 0-3yr battle.

DYOR - IMO

Richeyroo - you neglected to mention:

In 2019 EZJ had a turnover of 6.4bn, a profit of 427 million, from 96.1 million passengers on 333 planes

i.e. more passengers on fewer planes back in 2019 - when compared to 2024. Plus all the downsides that have come with cumulative inflation over time.

I'm confident guidance will be met, SSPG booked spend on IT for the efficiency improvements in the latest results - demonstrating their actions are matching up with their words. Also there's the matter of 'buybacks in autumn' which was also mentioned in those results. The IPO went well too, £620mil raised and although the UK, France and USA appear to be having their myriad of political issues it equally seems the rest of the world is busy cracking on when it comes to travel, trade and doing business! Tendency for media sensationalism to be greatly exaggerating issues - when on the ground it's likely 'business as usual'.

IMO - DYOR

Ironknut - Most welcome. IMV the move to the main market is absolutely no guarantee of success for the SP here. Though the GBG fundamentals are solid and there's definitely ongoing growth in the ID market globally. Much will depend on how the BOD's navigate the new status and coverage that'll come with being a FTSE250 business. I currently believe they're doing a good job btw and hopefully that'll continue.

Macy - Thanks for sharing your thoughts there, interesting to consider the stance you have on the longer term view for this stock! Lots of course for the whole market hinges on what takes place in the White House with the Orange Man Baby.

Angelis - Maybe because you keep complaining? - After all if you were underwater here then you'd have cause to be frustrated and therefore vocal with your complaints.

Angelis - How deep underwater are you? Also, have you seen just how diabolical the CPI financials were in the FY2024 results? Plus the recent results update too?

Macy - FWIW, I've found our discussions good - you've challenged me to consider evidence you've put forwards and an alternative, and you've always done so politely to your full credit👍

In fairness, this recent dip - I did agree with you on it and it's why I've kept my powder dry these past days... because I think there's still a little further to fall yet IMV. Though what do you reckon Macy?

"Is this a question savage? Simple yes or no."

The answer is No - it was not a question. This was a statement which then after it had three full stops "..." as a seperator. Following which I then asked two questions and the explanations of those are below.

HHH81 - Demonstrating, through their use of expletive prose, how they lost all credibility long, long ago.

Copy of the text for your benefit Macy:

"Deutsche Bank have their own motivations for ratings, as do many of the big brokers... we shall see in due course who ends up being correct? Savage or Deutsche Bank? 🤷”

As you can see above there is clear separation here. The first part says "we shall see in due course who ends up being correct?" - i.e. I'm asking the reader 'is it the case we shall see in due course who ends up being correct?'

This is followed by the clause: "Savage or Deutsche Bank? 🤷" - i.e. I'm inviting the reader to consider the question 'who will be correct? - "Savage or Deutsche Bank? 🤷"

the... acts to separate the point made about agenda (which was a statement) - from the question about 'their (Deutsche Banks) current rating' versus 'my view of the direction for the SP for SSPG' - For clarity, my view on SSPG is this: "(as £3 a share within the mid-term is easily achievable for this business IMO)".

DYOR - IMO

Trisor - Just a correction for you there... as you stated "I wouldn’t recommend engaging with Savage Keyboard because he is a leftie, very unpleasant , wrong and a liar generally."

All these things are incorrect because:

1. I utterly despise the hard left as equally as I despise the hard right. I'm a working class centrist who just wants sensible regulated capitalism, with decent investment levels into quality public services. To achieve a wealthy correction the boomers need to be windfall taxed of course, as they're the only ones with substantial hoarded wonga... from having repeatedly voted to enrich themselves and they inflicted the damaging brexit on the nation too.

2. I've been perfectly pleasant to all - sure I may use jovial prose (along with evidence of course) to counter nonsense conspiracy theories but I never use offensive language and threats (something others have directed towards me).

3. I've always quoted sound sources of evidence and many of my forecasts about CPI's financial performance have been closely aligned to the published results. Yes, it's true I've not called the SP so well but it's an open market and the SP can be taken wherever buyers, sellers and shorters opt to take it at a given moment.

True, I'm not invested in CPI and I've never had anything to do with Capita. Also Tre I've invested since Dec 2022, and I've made decent profit all throughout this period of time thus far! 👍

When someone has a credible theory, and they can back it up with the evidence then I might well be inclined to be agreeable of course. It's just sadly the case on here that most of the time it's all conspiracy theories, and nonsense of £6 a share lol!

DYOR - IMO

"SK, by your very essence you are trying to manipulate the thoughts of others which is market manipulation."

makes complete sense when you think about it tbf 🤔- after all it's all just one big conspiracy to manipulate and financially ruin you 🙄

🤦😅

Q: Define: Conspiracy Theory

A: "a belief that some secret but influential organization is responsible for an event or phenomenon"

"Unfortunately for you conspiracy theories are usually proved right." - What you're saying is pure & simple incorrect. As a conspiracy theory is by definition a belief (one which you appear to hold).

"HS, they arent shorters, they are MM trolls." - More conspiracy nonsense from Angelis... "They are heavily manipulating the price, putting buys through as sell etc." - What a load of nonsense.

It's a free & open market - just because this stock is being sold and is dropping it does not mean there's some grandiose conspiracy occuring lol. It's just the case few investors are interested in buying and holding this loss making business when compared to those willing to sell and short it. AH's Turnaround plan looks as though it's failing.

IMO - DYOR