Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

More asset fire sales🛒 - Sure, it's true this particular element of the CPI business was losing money, and has been performing poorly. Rather than embarking on efforts to streamline it, to work towards making it profitable, instead CPI's BOD's opted to jettison this part of the business.

Post sale yet again all CPI LTH's will be left owning more shares in a smaller business with much reduced revenues. Of course many will argue 'that's all part of the strategy' - However, the destruction of this business is clearly the root issue of why the SP has been struggling. Essentially, LTH's are being robbed of value and that's because this equity they've bought their stake in has reduced from being a £4.674bn revenue business back in 2015 to being a £2.421bn revenue business at FY2024 (and it's still falling today). The business is approx. half the size, over a time period which has also seen roughly ~40% cumulative inflation (further amplifying the pain). Also no divi in the meantime to soften or compensate for such critical fiscal damage either.

The drop is going to continue IMO here because the approach is all wrong. Targeting 4-6% margins during a time a belt-tightening is a grave error. CPI (34,500 employees) should be looking to bag contracts at competitive rates, and then backload efficiency savings to deliver on the contracts at lower than anticipated costs.

In contrast take Computacenter Plc (20,074 employees)... its 2015 revenues were £3.06bn and FY2024 revenues a whopping £6.69bn! Sure, it's seen 'costs of sales' increase but... along the way it's also grown revenues (and has made efficiency gains along the way), and so it's meant the firm has been very successful.

IMO - AH is leading CPI into ruin. DYOR

Pipe dreams of delusional grandeur... CPI cannot even manage to properly run Pension systems.

Letting CPI loose with running critical NHS healthcare systems would be reckless and mad.

This could have quite an impact?:

https://archive.is/20250818043654/https://www.ft.com/content/1c6ce97e-f358-4249-b264-67c71b764164

"If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything, deliver nothing."

Napoleon Bonaparte. Perhaps speaking about CPI's strategic approach? 🤷📉

On 4 Aug 2025 11:17 I forecast: "CPI should be £0.50p but.... I'll opt for £2.39p (15.93p in old monies)"

CPI got there in the end ✅ (okay, so yep... it took a while longer to do do so)

Perhaps this old Russian proverb may be comforting for some on here? It goes like this:

Не имей сто рублей, а имей сто друзей

Translates to:.Do not have 100 rubles, have 100 friends 👍😎

"Its frustrating having to wait but I think this shows that they have got a plan."

Oh I dont doubt they have a plan... I agree they do have a plan they're following, and the most dangerous thing about it is it sounds plausible... explains why some are buying the bs.

AH and the BOD think their plan will successfully work, whereas I think they're deploying an inappropriate plan for the current macroeconomic situation they're facing. That's why I think they'll ultimately fail, and so far their plan really is not working at all, and in fact it may even be speeding up the decline tbh.

There is another alternative, they know their plan won't work but they're going with it anyway -as a method of extracting as much value as is possible before things eventually reach a point of no return.

DYOR - IMO

JG68 - The abuse you dish out just demonstrates to me how you've ended up so far underwater here.

Maybe your anger got the better of you? Then as a result perhaps you dismissed my analysis, and refused to consider I might have rather valid points? - Look, I shared, transparently, why I thought this stock would severely struggle, and instead of digging out some sources of evidence, and then putting a counter proposal onto the table, you opted to just be abusive, incoherent and emotional.

Red bull - great sponsors of awesome sports (esp. winter sports & stunts) but... terrible as a beverage, nasty stuff 😬

Insult me all you wish too, it won't change the fact Capita is doing so terribly. Further falls yet to come IMO - DYOR

Brass0 thought Christmas 🎄 had come early...

Meanwhile back in the real world: ⬇️📉

Closing in on 230p

Ole Kipper 🐟... your buys at 300p sat at what might soon be a 70p per share loss 😬- Ouchie

FY2021 revenue was £3.1825bn

Since then there's been about 25% cumulative inflation and so for CPI to have remained a business of the same size then today it'd need to be booking around about £3,9781bn...

And yet CPI looks set to struggle to achieve £2bn...

So basically this business has roughly shrunk by 50% since FY2021... that folks is shockingly poor performance by anyones standards.

Many LTH's are now in so deep with their devout beliefs of 'jam tomorrow', and the AI 'rags to riches' story being served up by AH for his cult followers to chow down & choke themselves on...

I'll be frank, its just really very sad to see that even when confronted with the cold hard evidence, of financial facts, and pretty robust analysis of the figures, to derive a decent forecast, still some would rather buy into conspiracy theories (like mm's being to blame for 'manipulation' of this stock). The alternative is to face reality, and many just dont appear ready to for that. Honestly, it's just really sad to witness.

Especially because I'm just regular working class... I've been watching stocks & reading up tonnes of info for years, before finally taking the plunge to play the stock market with what little hard earned cash I've gathered up. As I've repeatedly explained I dont short stocks because I just cannot take those kinds of high risks, and I cant do that because i've the responsibility, to my wife, to be far more careful than that!

Look I may jest and throw jovial puns but... I've not been abusive to ppl on here (unlike hate directed at me for having rightly challenged nonsense). I simply came here looking for an investment stock for myself and I'm so relieved I had the sense to give this one a wide pass. I truly hope some here able to escape can do so 🤞before it all collapses for those who dont wake from the dream until it's all much too late 😬

DYOR - IMO

"I would remind everyone here these were trading at double and even triple todays price back in both 2023 and 2021 and the company (to quote @daltry) was a wounded elephant back then!"

The FY2021 revenue was £3,182.5m

The FY2023 revenue was £2,814.6m

And its fallen much more since then, I'm reckoning it could go sub £2bn for FY2025 though freely admit it may also just about cling on to remain a whisker above the £2bn threshold.

So if this was a wounded elephant back then... well today it's like Friesian cow riddled with TB and awaiting euthanasia 🐄

DYOR.- IMO

AdamWoodman has clearly been on the strong stuff to be having these wacky dreams of £6 a share 😂

"I've just bought a few more in anticipation of the bounce - hopefully upwards!"

Personally, I cannot fathom why on earth you'd wish to throw more good monies after bad? 🤷

Even when presented with rather solid facts, about the decline of CPI, there's still some who appear content to continue with buying into the PR prose. It's most strange... a little akin to how some ultra loyal soldiers of the 3rd Reich just kept on defending the motherland even after complete and utter millitry defeat. I suppose it does demonstrate the power of propaganda? 🤷

"Problem is Lordy , market doesn’t believe him and the tosspots take advantage." - Hardly justified to slander those who don't believe AH... it's not a crime to have the kahunas to 'call AH's bluff' - Look, if you also don't believe AH yourself then why not take advantage and join the shorters?

IMV your outrage here just further supports what I have been saying all this long while - As a while back now I'd considered CPI as an investment case for my portfolio, I examined the financials & asked some tough questions on here because I believed I'd caught out a rat! I made forecasts and have been remarkably close in my predictions of the financials (albeit much less close with calling the SP - Trump volatility has tended to make that more difficult).

So all in all... this CPI stock is a steaming turd pile - which I said it would prove to be. The long drop is far from over yet too.

DYOR - IMO

Calvinellul - I mostly agree with what you're saying and just to point out that I'd previously raised this issue about the ~9% loan which CPI had taken out as being a significant problem, when factoring in the continued falling revenues. Essentially, CPI is borrowing cash, paying high rates to do so, only to later on net even less money into the coffers (lower revenues) for use towards paying back those borrowed sums!.. It's clearly a sharp doom loop (I also think CPI extended the duration on some of those high interest loans recently too? Is your info there wholly up to date?)

Regarding your "In my personal opinion, the long-term plan is to take Capita private by the same investor" - I don't agree with this but hey, you're entitled to your view. Reason being that I cannot identify who that would be... in my view there's just no one with an obvious motive to make this move. Lack of motive suggests to me it's therefore unlikely?! - What do others reckon?

IMO - DYOR

No not Capita... CPI inflation in the USA! "With CPI coming in right around expectations earlier this week, markets had been pricing a virtual certainty that the Fed will lower its key interest rate when it meets next in September."

However, analysts will now have to recalibrate their CPI forecasts because PPI just "jumped 0.9% on the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain."

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/14/ppi-inflation-report-july-2025-.html

Dow Jones Futures have just responded by plummeting and I imagine this will drag the market down this afternoon. I think Capita could go sub £230p easily on a broad market drop, easy monies for them shorters IMO - DYOR

AdamWoodman - Complete conspiracy nonsense, as I only ever post under my Savage_Keyboarder name.

Calvinellul - TBF, you raise a rather valid point which I'd not considered about employee costs there: "35,000 employees, but most are based in South Africa, India, and elsewhere - yet Capita still can’t make a profit."

In this day and age with cloud computing, data warehousing and more automated processing it really is quite shocking just how far behind CPI is when directly compared to other businesses in the same/similar lines of work. I made the comparison the other day with Computacenter, and given they're netting £6bn revenues it really is shocking just how terrible a business CPI is... It's a sucker stock which should either be wound up or put out of its misery with a takeover bid.

IMO - DYOR