Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

1x USA Fed Reserve cut could be made, to support jobs & unemployment. However, I cannot see the Fed making any further cuts so long as inflation remains hot and it's yet to get hotter over the Autumn months (due to Trump Tariffs).

Trump has been trying desperately to drag the USD$ down but I think we're about to witness it springing upwards rapidly IMO. Conversely the £ is looking primed to fall and BoE likely to be forced into some rate cuts too which may amplify that deflationary drop too.

DYOR

Core USA inflation looking hot 🔥

What is your USA inflation forecast? 🇺🇸 🌎

Just for fun 👍

I'm reckoning on 3.2%

"My advice would be to filter Avocet" - Done long ago, got tired of their boring drivel as never any evidence used to backup their nonsense. Definitely a bot IMV.

Dartron - Good spot. I'd previously mentioned them selling. They've dropped their stake quite considerably over time. Personally, I'm unconcerned mind, as it's a sound business with healthy financials.

DYOR

'Don't hate the trader (Aim), hate the game' Heatseeker77

Such low trading volumes on CPI (unless this LSE sight is failing to report the trades in a timely manner? - I see still no RNS on here for the UBS trade)

Explains the recent rise of the SP - Cheers for sharing

All eyes on the US inflation figs later this week now - Esp. so after those revised USA YoY jobs figures (down 911,000 announced today). If the inflation ticks up a lot there could be mega turbulence, and if not there could be a sudden epic bull run.

Trouble accross the channel & USA inflation likely to tick upwards later this week. Brace for much turbulence over the remainder of this week

Looks to be holding for the minute. Though for how long? USA inflation figs out later on this week will likely dominate the market moves in the latter part of this week.

DYOR

AimMaster2018 - I agree. Definitely the case the "fed has an issue, price stability or jobs" 💯

Trisor, if its lower debt figures you seek then holding rates higher is the best approach, as high rates discourages folks from taking out debts 🤷

AimMaster2018 - US inflation definitely has big potential to trend up, I wholly agree with you on that and yep- massive potential for turbulent week on those results which could shock tbf. I think the more inflation seen in USA will result in amplifying potential of sharp deflation for EU & UK.

DYOR

AimMaster2018 - I disagree, as cuts or raises typically take about 6-9months to fully filter through the system. Lots of cheap goods beginning to land into UK ports & airports, goods diverted away from USA, due to Trump tariff hikes. If BoE does nothing it'll be amplifying the incoming wave of deflation (by keeping rates on hold and therefore overly strong £).

BoE has to begin to act now, lowering rates at a faster pace, to ensure deflation, job losses and unemployment does not manage to take hold.

DYOR - IMO

My estimations are these:

UK - Sep 0.25% cut + Nov 0.25% cut

USA - Sep 0.25% cut + Oct 0% no change.

DYOR - IMO

AimMaster2018 - it's a totally fair point you make there, about the short term inflation spike towards 4%. However, looking at commodity prices (oil & other raw inputs) they're stagnant and even falling a little which means if £ drops a little in strength (sode effect of rate cuts) the net effect would be acceptable for BoE (as they target 2% inflation). Whereas if BoE holds rates they may quickly run into deflation territory. So I think there will be cuts soon. ✂️

DYOR - IMO

"with all the money labour are borrowing" - load of nonsense... Tories borrowed far more over their disastrous tenue. Labour now doing the hard yards of repair work, to fix all that cumulative damage done by the Tory economic vandals.

As for CPI, it's just uncompetitive and losing out to other businesses which have been growing whilst CPI has been shrinking.

On US rates, if there is a cut it may well be a one off cut to temporarily appease Trump, and v.unlikely to see any MoM series of cuts due to the inflationary effects of the tariffs.

Cuts likely incoming for UK though, despite BoE rhetoric to the contrary.

DYOR- IMO

Trisor - Tories were running the show for 14yrs and look where that got us all! Now many of those rotten Tories busy re-branding themselves as Reform. The Reform party isn't even democratic, just all about Farage and his failed ideologies of isolationism and nationalism. Farage would lead the nation to ruin.

Trisor - it'll be a huge mistake to let the gaslighting Farage in... after all Farage caused the immigration crises, and damaged the economy with his nonsense bexit ideology.

You say "Starmer knew about this on Monday and lied about it, the lying about the legal advice was the last straw."

There is zero evidence (so far as I'm aware) that Starmer knew every detail on Monday and lied about it.

Rayner has admitted she didn't seek specialist tax advice (something many working class folks will routinely find an alien system, one almost designed by the wealthy to trip up those less educated and with far fewer financial resources & experience to access sound advice).

Her situation is quite different from Nadhim Zahawi, who had failed to declare for over 1yr, and who had failed to pay a far larger sum to the exchequer. There was a long drawn out process before he was eventually sacked.

It's clear Rayner had to go due to her error, she could not sit as a senior minister and simultaneously duck paying monies owed to the exchequer but... Starmer boosted the power of the ethics advisor and rightly held the investigation rapidly.

The question now is can Labour manage to learn from this and come back even stronger?