RE: TFS - 'to realise vaue for shareholders'4 Dec 2025 16:12
Teac - I've re-read your comment (trying to figure out your calculation methodology) - I think you may have mis-calculated here? IMO a special divi could be worth much more than the 2p you suggest. I think you're linking the 12% of TFS, and working on an assumption this equates to 12% of the SSPG Market Cap when that will not be the case IMV....
TFS IPO was about £620 million for SSPG (~£1.2bn total value on floatation). However, that was the approx. valuation at the point of floatation which I think in the end slightly exceeded that figure once all the dust had settled, as there was healthy take-up (for the most part). Plus with SSPG owning 50.01% of the TFS stock it has increased in value since that flotation (i.e. SSPG has been netting this valuation gain on top of floatation valuation).
Today the TFS valuation is roughly equivalent to around about 45-55% of SSPG's total market cap of £1.3bn (assuming SP remains around ~£1.62-£1.65).
Lots will depend on the valuations of TFS & SSPG at the point in time when SSPG commences unloading it's shares of TFS in accordance with the rules they have to meet...
(All hypotheticals here) Given the TFS valuation has risen list float, and SSPG does have a need to pay down/service the debts it took on to accelerate growth (a really great strategy by the board IMV). Contemplating SSPG might opt to reduce their stake from 50% by half to 25%. If they did this they'd potentially release £310-£380mil (as at today £365mil but the range accounts for a certain degree of SP movement in either direction between now and when the sale occurs)...
So we are talking about a massive amount of cash bounty potentially incoming for the SSPG coffers. I'm not for one second suggesting all would go on a special divi. However, £365mil is about 27%-29% of the entire SSPG market Cap. SSPG would of course become a smaller business via selling its TFS stake, so that'd need to be considered by investors. However, that sort of cash inflow I'd imagine could be a 50/50 split between a debt paydown and Special Divi. If so I think 20-22p divi is plausible at the top end, 10-12p at the lower end (if they return half my approximates via divi or if you just halve all my calculated assumptions).
So personally, I think my assumptions are based on a possible scenario which could unfold but I think your suggestion of a 2p divi is way to low ball. What do others on here reckon on? Please share you views, be good to hear them!
DYOR - goes without saying but this is all IMO, pls feel free to check my calcs + assumptions!
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