Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Fatprofits - Completely agree things are turning V.ugly but at the moment it does appear limited to the consumer profile types of H,I and J... though the data is pointing to them being increasingly distressed and towards demand collapse... not whole market wide though imo, definitely limited to just those demographics.

You said "Ryanair believe it is cute and amusing to abuse customers"... EZJ are not far behind the terrible service which Ryanair inflicts upon its customers... trust pilot score for EZJ & Ryanair are both shocking:

https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/www.easyjet.com?sort=recency

Fatprofits - yep, it does seem to point to demand within some consumer demographics dropping like a stone... could be the first signs of consumer distress showing in the data.

TheRiflemans - I agree with your logic and when OTB reported weaknesses in the value sector earlier this year it made me question my thinking on the travel sector, I think its now clear that was a massive early warning sign. Entirely possible the upper and high end of the market turns out to be where the real boom and profits lie.

£1!... meanwhile in the real world CPI struggles with staying above 20p and hardly surprising, as the revenues continue falling!

Big short positions are still open. Results day should see them suffer some further costly losses 🤞

Just for fun - where do you reckon SP will be sitting by COP 25th?

I reckon £1.58p

Certainly is on the move again... just downwards innit

Completely agree fleccy, BT is a no brainer investment, I've been adding each time there's been a chunky dip of SP. Top performing stock, this financial year, is where I reckon BT is headed! All IMO of course.

Bulktrading - wife denied permission and fortunately I know to listen to her! She doesn't reckon EZJ SP will fayre so well these coming weeks ahead. Pickup could take longer. I reckon she is right and that OTB and Ryanair cannot be the only travel firms getting their pricings in the value market a little wrong.

Elllltelinv - wife said nope... she reckons it's going to drop some more yet 😬. Now I am really not sure, I think we all agree that EZJ is not Ryanair - the customer profile is different, probably even more so today than 5yrs ago... I think I need to re-examine the fundamentals, totally reassess my thinking on EZJ before making the final decision.

For clarity when I said "I was hovering over the buy button late last week... my wife advised me to hold" - I'm not currently invested in EZJ but I was wondering buying a first tranche.

I don't think I'll be buying in because although many are saying 'EZJ is not Ryanair'... it's also true businesses like OTB reported softer pricing in the value holiday range specifically earlier in the year... yes EZJ might well have busy planes but if Sales/Marketing have royally messed up by selling lots of loss leading packages (not helped by soaring operating costs) then there could be severe pain yet to come on Wednesday. The drops could even be worse that Ryanair?

I was hovering over the buy button late last week... my wife advised me to hold, I was so close to buying... Thankfully I listened to my wife though ;-)

Yes ianfm, massive spillover to EZJ and makes me wonder if those huge rises in operating costs could have been the spoiler... maybe sales/marketing departments of many airliners have been too desperate to see the load factors rise that they've been green lighting too many deals sold at loss making price points?

Ryanair profits after tax down by 46% and average fares for June down 15%. Brutal! Will this spillover into others like EZJ, or have Ryanair made some massive and costly mistakes in their Marketing/Sales/Service which is unique to their business?

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/ryanair-rues-consumer-caution-as-profits-slip-on-fare-discounts-13183107

I'm expecting Revenues to land a little above forecasted for these Q1 results. Several reasons though generally it should end up being true that BT, much like all other typical service businesses, will be seeing greater pick up of the baseline customer demand. I.e. those households which may have acted cautiosusly and over-cut their spending through Oct23-Mar24 months should have found they had a little more to spend than anticipated through Apr24-Jun24.

Stille - in practice will it be that 'easy' to recoup the cost damages?

GoCPI - I'm invested in BT which last time I checked is doing rather well for me... it should prove one of the biggest risers this financial year imo. Previously I did well from TUI, Currys and a number of others as well. I'm a small fry investor, I don't short stocks as I don't have enough trading experience and I've made some good calls. Yes, I'll not get it right all the time, of course, but I've a better than fair record so far.

Https://www.ofcom.org.uk/phones-and-broadband/bills-and-charges/ofcom-bans-mid-contract-price-rises-linked-to-inflation/

I can see this costing consumers more as all telecoms Co's will have to guess the necessary price rise to account for unknown future inflation so surely they'll all build in coverage for 'worst case inflation scenarios' into their pricing models?

Trisor - The recent sale of Capital One did catch my attention, in a positive way, and contrary to what you're saying... I believe I've done my due diligence on CPI's rather well as I flagged many issues and being frank I was wholly unsatisfied with the responses on here (justifications did not add up to reconcile, appeared built on blind hope/wishful thinking rather than fundamentals). Yes AH does appear to be doing well and I recognise things could turn out okay but... I have my reservations.

Trisor - Yes, totally true that I have no dealings with Capita and no investment in Capita either but... I have other investments and they've been doing rather well for me. I analysed CPI and did not like what I saw, it didn't pass the litmus test for me and when I vocalised that and enquired with probing questions instead of rational sensible answers on here I just got a barrage of abuse instead... which only served to reinforce my view that CPI has a deep hole in it's hull and it listing badly.