Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Wowsers! Wizz down by 12-17%... looks as though EZJ has buyers fighting the drop but for how long can that be sustained? Previously I'd reckoned on 434-444p by COP but now I am pondering if the SP could fall sub 410p... the global Macroeconomics are looking very challenging plus BoE rate decision on a knife edge... I'd BoE plays hardball and follows the Fed (I think it will) with a hold there could be significant pain today.

Interesting Kiwitwo as best bank savings rates are ~5.1%... so with Core Inflation currently running at 2.8% when you subtract that from your return you're left with just a 2.3% real terms gain over 1yr period...

Compare that with BT Shares priced at £1.40p... annual Divi is 0.08p... i.e. a 5.7% annual ROI. It's worth consideration that BT raises it's prices in line with inflation annually. Then there is the continued 5G + FTTP rollouts, atop is Labours commitment to build 1.5+million new homes...

Of course important to DYOR and all the above is in my opinion but my money's going into buying up more BT stock, esp since its very undervalued atm too!

Ex-Div eve next week! BT set to benefit long term from Labour's home building plans as well as the strong support for the economy in their policy. Fortunately the money wasting gimmicks like Rwanda and the barge are ditched so that cash can now be diverted and better spent elsewhere!

Davidphilips - If their state and private pensions combined exceed a threshold then yep, they would not be entitled to benefits atop too... that's always been the case...

Mind you the Tories have not raised those thresholds to fully keep pace with inflation... the lost trade with the EU due to brexit means revenues into the treasury have fallen respectively, so therefore Tories needed to raise taxes via fiscal drag to make up the shortfall.

BielsaBall2021 - You posses a remarkably low IQ!

Migrant workers are essential for economic growth, without immigration the UK would not be able to service the enormous debt mountain which the Tories have amassed over the last 14yrs... cutting migration to zero would immediately bring about a shrinking population + economy, as well as a run on the banks probably. It's literally an impossibility for a Government in No.10 to deliver 'net zero migration', as insolvency for the nation would immediately follow (unless there were punishingly large tax rises) but... you're just to thick to grasp economics.

Affmaead - haha! My own forecast which probably means it'll be wrong! My wife would probably say a lower SP (than my forecast) for EZJ and also a hold on the BoE rate.

ForeverNever - I agree, I've observed volumes of homes for sale on the main platforms having lept upwards these last 3 months by ~17.5-22.5%... suggesting anaemic demand appetite is combining with an ever growing heap of unsold homes.

By the time a rate cut or two lands they'll not be sufficient to meaningfully provide relief.

Hold or Cut? What does everyone reckon? and how about forecasts of SP for COP Thursday too?

IMO we'll be seeing a Hold by BoE with SP somewhere around ~434-444p

BielsaBall2021 - Not sure if you've noticed or not but Brown and Blair are not the ones occupying No.10. as for 2008 banking crisis... the clues is in the name: a banking crisis caused by fraudsters within the banking industry who packaged up chunks of worthless sub-prime mortgages and sold them to various investors - Labour did not cause the financial crash.

Thankfully, Labour's massive majority guarantees for the next 5yrs both the ridiculous hard left + hard right wing cranks will continue to be kept out from No.10 - We can now all enjoy the rebuilding and progress which lies ahead. BT should do very well too because Labour recognises that high quality data telecoms is a top ingredient for delivering economic growth, prosperity and CO2 emissions reductions for the nation.

BielsaBall2021 - Gold can be both worthless and priceless... just as an ace card is both 1 and 11...

Fortunately, the entire globe has travelled a great distance since those olden days of the Gold Standard and of that long lost 'Great British Empire' (for which I'm sure you have a great many a wet dream yearning for its return/restoration?)..

Look it's quite simple really, you're presumably old... approaching the point where you kick the bucket... with your last whimpering few gasps... lungs filled with pre-ULEZ air... maybe even leaded four star... you pray for a return of the good ol' days when politicians had plenty of common sense...

Your prayers were answered... a minister with no sense in common, Esther McVey, was appointed... it lasted a short while... that is until... the rest of the nation convulsed violently from the unpleasant side effects of the disastrous Tory regime...

Fortunately.... Starmer/Rayner/Reeves began their ascent to power, to save the nation... and with their massive majority they fixed the vital services, grew the economy and made you comfortable for your very final days which you'll no doubt spend rocking back and forth in your chair parroting 'STOP THE BOATS' at random times...

Carved on your gravestone perhaps?: BielsaBall2021 - Missed the empire, Grieved the lost gold, had a passion for seafaring yet never sailed.

Labour (A. Rayner) announces mandatory housing targets will rise from 300,000/yr to over 370,000/yr - Many new data/telecom connections! Lovely jubbly! Given BT has ~32% market share that is approx. 0.45-0.56million new sales if being v.cautious with assuming only a single connection per household (there will of course be more).

BluePete - well politics is important when it comes to household stocks like BT and others... Tories presided over 14yrs of decline and chaos - each passing year saw conditions for businesses, stock market, housing sector and public services get ever worse.

Finally, they've been turfed out for their ineptitude and yet there's some who still want an even more extreme version of the Tory right wing madness - It didn't work so an even more extreme version will just see the nation experience even greater decline and chaos!

It's a huge relief the grown up centrist Labour Party has stepped up to steady the ship and begin the long road to recovery. BT and other staple companies have a bright future ahead, so long as a sensible and well balanced Political party remains in power inside No.10.

Scallywag3 from your comment it sounds like you might be wanting a new job in the fruit picking industry? 🤔

Easy to pontificate your narrative from your ivory tower about your views on 'lazy brits' - however, tends to be the armchair retired folk like you who parrot such nonsense lines... critique others for turning down hard graft, yet shirk at hard the graft yourself!

Many folk like scallywag3 also fail to acknowledge the majority of people on benefits are actually in work but need benefits to top up their miserly wages.

Get in the bin scallywag3 - the nonsense you peddle may sound great with your Reform buddies in the local boozer... but falls apart on contact with the real world just like Liz Truss's failed economics.

Anyway buy some BT folks, decent price at this SP! Now that Labour are back in charge the economy can begin to grow again at last!

As for BT... FTTP & 5G rollouts keep on rolling onwards! Peak capex hill is now behind us. As fleccy rightly points out yes, costs will reduce from here onwards but... I disagree fleccy, BT is a growth business because the sales volumes of many services to new customers will grow considerably - especially streaming, sports, gaming and other data services...

BT offers good service standards for sensible prices too, customers get a lot of services for their monthly contract prices.

BielsaBall2021 - Rwanda scheme was not a deterrent and it cost monumental sums... it was a gimmick that deterred very few individuals because gangs and migrants knew the scheme was a complete failure... The Tories secured only deportation of 4 individuals voluntarily deported to Rwanda, at a cost of hundreds of £millions... oh and they also lost track of them too!

Anyway... UK relies on immigration because without it the UK population would be shrinking and many key businesses would find they have too few staff to function.

BielsaBall2021 - you sound like a bigoted Farage brown noser...

The secret few politicians will admit is migration is essential for a thriving UK economy, always has been. Farage spouts nonsense about how migration is a problem and yet if he achieved his 'net zero migration' the UK would become insolvent overnight.

The basis of the reform party is to endlessly debate and pursue their vision/ideology for a restoration of 'England for the English'... except who are the English? Roman?... From Italy? Anglo Saxon?... From Saxony?... Norman? From Normandy?... the list goes on!

Net Zero migration can never be achieved because the terrible economic side effects will be too painful a price for the nation to cope with... the moment such a mad policy is realised is the same moment the economy will implode.

Farage is a lying fraudster but the thing is it's far easier to fool a person, just as he has fooled many of his followers... than it is to help someone to understand they have been fooled.

As for your comments on violent criminals, all should face the full force of the law whomever they are.

As for your accusation/hypothesis that I am a migrant... you'll no doubt resort to whatever slanderous methods to justify your minds bigotry... I'm a Brit and thankfully we have a decent centrist Labour Government of grown ups back in power at last... thankfully the lying & incompetent Tories have been removed from office!

Basher - last time I checked I wasn't fleccy... they're invested in VOD & Lloyds, two stocks I wouldn't wish to buy. Also fleccy's a right winger... Thank lordy we have a Lab Government, the nation can now begin the healing process and it's looking great so far! Rwanda scrapped, Bibby Stockholm scrapped + Junior Docs 22.3% 2yr pay rise... lovely jubbly.

Aus3009 - Telecoms is a hyper competitive market, regularly there are waves of customers switching up their deals to leave BT and buy into a new contract with a different telecoms company... then 1-2yrs later there can be waves of customers switching back to BT again. The 185k number is not in the millions and is just part of statistical 'natural variation'... If customer losses significantly build YoY over many years then yes that becomes a different story as it would signal a decline trend.

Some data on 'Market share' here:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273412/market-share-of-uk-telecoms-operators-since-2007-by-fixed-broadband-subscribers/

Note: View the graph with just EE + BT selected (Pre 2016 both need to be added together to conduct a fair comparison as EE was bought up by BT)...

As you can see from the graph the market share for BT+EE bobs up and down between 32%(2008-2010)-36%(2014-2017) and so the current 33% is inside that 32-36% range.

Haha! Bashed... I've never worked for BT - Many many years back I did a 9month stint (employed by an agency) working in the office for a small time private telecoms business (they had their own engineers) but that's about as close as I've ever been to BT. I've done many jobs since those days and I know nothing at all about telecoms engineering. It is rather nice having a grown up Labour Government back in the No.10 Downing street office though! ;-)

"failed pop-up shop" - Well I have sympathy for you Bashed... what with you having purchased your BT lots at or around the £5 mark, no doubt given you're currently sit on massive paper losses that's probably a major stress for you and I've much empathy for your situation.

However, in defence of my reputation I've done rather well with my stock picks so far, since I began investing back in Dec 2022, despite this period having been a v.tough market. I've examined the Macroeconomic situation and I've called many

sound buying opportunities too. Currys, TUI, JDW, BT are just a few of the stocks I've made decent profits from and a while back I called this BT rally - yes, it dipped below my anticipations right down towards £1 but I also rightly called that as a sound buying opportunity too.

BT is still very undervalued, peak capex has passed - many returning from summer hols will be buying up their data, streaming, gaming & sports packages to see them through the winter days that lie ahead. The many newly installed FTTP & 5G connections are going to witness massive sales pickup going forwards. £165p-175p is easily achievable for this stock!

Bargain stock this! The shorters are set to feel more burning in the sprint towards Ex-Div next week!🔥

Mind the gap at ~128p... although it's possible we never see that price (not 100% the gap still remains or if it was filled).

BoE rate decision this week, on a knife edge between hold or cut but... I reckon in the end they'll opt to hold to follow the US Fed, an error imo as later on the cuts will need to be deeper.

Whatever happens BT SP is setup rather nicely for a sustained rally👌 - 165p-175p easily.