Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

"better than expected results" - Trisor what you're saying is delusional! The results say revenue is going to decline by mid digit single figures on the next set of results and it's becoming clear there are tough economic times ahead, so CPI is going into this already significantly weakened and I suggest that it in my opinion it will not survive, even with a good captain at the helm.

Revenues down 9% & anticipation is there's yet another mid single digit fall to come! That'll mean CPI shrinking to an annual revenue of approx 2.2bn... and that's being on the optimistic side!

Half the profits in this update have been booked on the back of the Capita One sale. A good move to offload that profitable part of the business to provide support but it is most definitely temporary support.

Most alarming looks to be the contract win shrinkage. Now it says that's down to "reflecting a lower level of bid activity"... really? 🙄 goes on to say "Contract win rate of 48% versus 63% last year" and then "focus on ensuring contracts are bid at an appropriate margin in line with the Group's medium-term operating margin target"... Well yes, its true there is no point winning unprofitable contracts... but that's just stating the obvious and does not help the underlying fact that CPI is just uncompetitive.

What's even worse is this lands as the 7th year of straight declines and... before the recession that's coming soon has even arrived.

if AH manages to pull off a turnaround here for CPI it'll be something near to a miracle!

I won't be buying CPI

Pokerchips - I'm not so sure the USA is going to feel the pain/contraction/recession... business is booming in the states and globally too but the UK has a major crisis with the many thousands of cuts into the patient courtesy of ongoing brexit blood letting...

The EU got a cut in nice & early and has been benefittimg from the weaker Euro currency these past few months too, it's just that it's yet to show in the data.

Also UK is about to be hit with several big scale insolvencies... water companies, TalkTalk, and others on the way too. Used home sales have tanked, uptick in unemployment on the way and yet the bank will find it hard to make cuts because inflation will persist nonetheless.

Rizzel - thanks for the insight, really interesting and I have not ever flown with Wizz, have flown with EZJ many times though 👍

I saw news on the poor state of TalkTalk few weeks back and it raises some really interesting unknowns...

If they go bust will their customers be dished out to one or several of the other telecoms providers (in similar way to when Bulb went folded)?

Is BT owed much money by TalkTalk (Will there be write downs for BT)?

Will TalkTalk receive a buyout bid (even for £1)?

Less of the insult there my dear bashed... yes, I've interest in futures and the macros... there's one future which does not look quite so rosy, that is the Patourel case, for which we still don't know the full details and outcome of.

Thanks for sharing fleccy.

Probably more about how full the flights are than the timing schedules for each one, perhaps?

Interesting about that IAG announcement and what implications will that have?

Well it hit the lower end of my forecast there... although I was wrong about the BoE decision.

Wizz down 18.6% - Wowsers! I'm so glad I sold my TUI lot back on 2nd Jan.

Avocet123 - I didn't buy any Squeezy shares because my wife told me not to buy them ;-) - I was previously invested in TUI until 2nd of Jan 24 when I sold the lot.

However, that has been the case due to the Capex... which is now past the peak and will be reducing going forwards... as the expenditure consistently falls the sales are set to consistently rise , as pickup in the takeup of new services on offer accelerates.

Fleccy - I quizzed you on the pension changes and you admitted that all G.Brown did was reverse a tax perk (albeit a long held one many had got used to having, perhaps even taking for granted). It was a simply tax relief rescindment. Nothing more. Thank yourself lucky you had it applied for some of your pension pot... many working now will not ever get a state pension and many private pensions have been watered down so as to be insufficient to meet retirement needs.

As for BT, the rate cut today means inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable - likely no second cut until early 2025 and the pledges for new home building plus FTTP + 5G rollout mean more sales of data packages! At these prices BT is a superb long term investment and dividend reinvestment is a smart play for some too... speak to fleccy as he can tell you all about that approach.

I am not surprised...

This summer needed to be rip roaring, revenues needed to be v.high for airliner businesses to cope with soaring input cost inflation i.e. they needed to be booking massive revenues to service their huge debts and cover their higher costs...

A few travel firms have done well (TUI, Jet2, EZJ to a degree + OTB to a degree) but it's becoming clearer that some firms have failed to grasp what they needed to do (Ryanair, WIZZ, Luft)... i.e. they've not appealed to what customers now want in terms of pricing v service levels.

It appears value/no frills carriers and those operating in value markets have been especially punished by the combo of lower than anticipated demand from those demographics plus there must be a proportion of customers who now outright object to being taken for a mug by diabolical service (pointing the finger squarely at Ryainair here, as their results show them as being a blatant outlier).

Then add on atop the disruption by striking workers, the global crowdstrike IT outages, Spanish protests, ongoing troubles in the middle east (okay some of this is yet to be felt in the next quarterly results but... Share prices reflect forward expectations too).

The late to the game Bank of England rate cut has certainly been unhelpful (although it will have brought down those pesky input costs, when versus if they had cut rates earlier in the year).

I'm glad I got out of my TUI investment on 2nd Jan though... I think another BoE rate cut will not be possible until early 2025 due to continued elevated inflation baked into the UK economy via Brexit... I don't think there will be a rally in airliner shares for a while yet as soon unemployment will be ticking upwards and yet the BoE will not be able to support with cuts to sufficiently ease that pain.

And another thing... Used Housing sales are in crisis with low demand and falling prices... yes the data says the prices are rising but imo that's because a fewer volume of higher priced new builds mean the data has a first glance appearance of a recovery market.

I agree

Erik9Haggy - There were those who wanted to forever trade/measure in British Imperial pounds, ounces, miles, yards, feet, inches, gallons, pints, fluid ounces... farthings, ha'pennies, pennies, shillings, the'penny bits, sixpence, crowns and pounds... and now today we now have Euro's + BitCoins --- forunately you cannot stop evolution, you cannot stop migration & movement of people and you cannot stop technological development. Those who try these things will always fail, whatever the narrative they attempt to use to justify the approach to their mad methods.

Interesting BoE opted to cut... Well there is a whole heap of inflation that's yet to be felt so enjoy this cut as the next one will not land until at least early 2025.

My dear Fleccy... if you stop to pause & properly think through your comment you'll realise your narrative is deeply flawed...

You said "how will transport accommodate nearly 200 million people when roads are already congested?"

You're not thinking innovative enough and 'outside of the box'... the answer is simple... far fewer people will drive in the future because technology will completely change the nature of work & travel over time... it's already happened with many now working from home but that's just the beginning!

If you have more people living in the country... then by default you end up with more builders, mores tradespersons, more doctors, more nurses... so the bottleneck you predict simply never occurs.

You say "My personal view is that a country should always be self sufficient"...

However, no country needs to be 100% self sufficient in every single economic area (primary, secondary, tertiary, quaternary industry)...

UK has focus and surplus on tertiary services... allowing us to sell those to other nations with shortfalls in that sector but they have surplus in another sector that we have a deficit of...

No man and no country is an island... else we all become like Kim Jong and North Korea.

Taverham - Very interesting comment there because what you're essentially saying is the very same as a theory Thomas Malthus proposed way back in in 1798...

His theory, called Malthusianism, essentially said population growth is exponential however, food supply is only linear and so food supply would fall short leading to widespread malnutrition & deaths...

However, his theory was completely & utterly rubbish because he failed to take any account for innovation💡 + technological advances!

What you and many others regularly peddle is his same debunked narrative, often to partially justify why the UK cannot house more people I.e. there's no room and we can't cope as we're a small island...

When in fact population growth, economic growth and scientific development all guarantee that more food will be produced in the future. One recent example is the beginnings of lab grown meat and the invention of Quorn too (grown in a big vessel in a similar way to making yoghurt).

So really the; 'there won't be enough food', 'there's not enough room' and 'we can't possibly cope' is just the same old luddite mentality that's been around for hundreds of years and the best thing about that having been peddled for hundreds of years??... Well it is that every single time it's been proven to be wrong! 👌😎

So as for BT which is just a network serving a growing population... based on the same underpinning theory it's guranteed to keep on growing 😉👍

Bad results from Wizz air look to have compounded troubles for Airliner stocks, OTB posted problems with value market sales many months ago. Later landed Ryanair with terrible results, EZJ with okay results and now Wizz down 12-17% today...

Why am I mentioning this... well BoE today has their rate decision on a knife edge... there's clearly plenty of trouble already brewed in the housing & leisure markets plus many businesses & individuals struggling under the sheer volumes of debts... these high rates are hurting but... cut the rate and inflation will return with renewed gusto!

I think the bank will attempt to follow the US Fed, they've tended to do this in the past when UK economy has been strong. However, the difference this time is UK has fallen down the global ladder, there's permanently embedded inflation as we're no longer globally competitive compared with decades prior when we were in the EU.

Whatever happens on rates is my opinion BT will do very well because BT its simultaneously a defensive and growth play; defensive as BT and telecoms services are far more vital for individuals and businesses than ever before, and growth because for any Government serious about delivering long term economic improvement then investment into data services infrastructure is essential.

I plan to keep on adding to my BT holdings!

Oh and as for the nonsense peddled by some on this board by Farage/Reform backing persons... well we just had an insight into what a nation governed by gammons would look like and it's not pretty... luckily there's 5yrs ahead of a sensible centrist Government to keep the cranks on the fringes at bay!

Fleccy there's plenty of room in the UK to double or treble the entire population! Many offices and retail areas can be near to completely bulldozed to make way for new homes as the high street and many offices are completely redundant!