Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Fleccy - yep, I've certainly noticed that sometimes this site does not display the correct open shorts so I've taken to going straight to the FCA site to check, as they're have to list the official take.

AbjectPerformer + BlueBuxton - For me I plan on continuing to buy up more tranches... Yes, I too have begun to tilt towards becoming over weight on BT but I have planned for the long haul here and I still have capacity to buy up a fair bit more yet...

Reason I've gone with the long strategy; to me it appeared obvious shorters were bound to double down, rather than accept their losses, + repurchase shares (at the higher prices) to close out their positions.

This battle over the direction for BT is going to be won by the long holders imo and the win is going to be a rather big one too, at the expense of these pesky short holders! DYOR.

Https://www.fca.org.uk/markets

Scroll down to the middle of the page - blue section named 'Short positions update' - Below that is an excel file you can download which comes direct from the Financial Conduct Authority itself.

I checked the fca and the 2.07% appears to be the correct figure

Casapinos - thanks for explaining, I'll read up about that - cheers!

Massive moves on the UK gilts markets today, presumably on the back of baileys comment:

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk

Immediately makes Mortgages pricier for banks and may cause some banks to backtrack/withdraw their better priced Mortgage products only recently made available!

Asleep at the wheel at the onset of rising inflation Andrew Bailey is today attempting to talk tough; Bailey suggesting pace (of cuts) in the UK will be slower... A position I don't think he'll be able to hold due to:

1. Falling property volumes & pre-owned asset prices. House prices only appear rising due to greater proportion of 30yr+ new build mortgages being written, with low deposits - wider market seeing many unsold properties backing up!

2. Rising debt defaults.

3. Fewer job vacancies + early signals of rising unemployment in UK.

IMO Sep should see the US/EU + UK all trim by 0.25% - with a pause by all to follow that round of cutting.

"You've 🤑got to be in it to win it"...

Anyone on here in profit on your CPI investments?

Agree fleccy + bobsbank - the tree shake was rather nice, snapped me up another large tranche! I've cash ready for another buy; if there's an attempt by some market players to push the SP down but... I'm not expecting SP to drop. I reckon it'll head gently upwards, for the foreseeable; US Fed rate decision 17-18th (should be at least 0.25% cut).

My take: Powell's reluctance to spell out magnitude of Sep cut was inevitable. He doesn't wish to trigger a speedy bull run + equities bubble but... equally does not wish to be blamed for exacerbating risks of inflation undershooting.

It's clear a US Fed Sep rate cut is now inevitable. Only question remaining: 0.25% or 0.5%?

EU looks poised to make one last cut before taking a pause. BoE is overseeing a resurgence of inflation but... a hold could cause asset prices to sharply dive (esp since house prices are already falling and unsold stocks growing substantially).

I think Sep could see 0.25% cuts for US, UK & EU all simultaneously and the only surprise will be the US not cutting by 0.5%. Given rate cuts tend to favour equities I'd suggest if you're looking for a home for your dough then equities should prove the most profitable home for your £/$ or EUR over these next 0-3months ahead. Bonds will be falling so only worth it if you can purchase sooner. As for property/assets, expect some more falls to come yet before there's stability and a long slow upward climb a long way down the line.

All IMO - DYOR

How's the £30k investment into Capita working out for you James Oxford?

Powell says:

"The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data."

Time for the buying stampede! Squeeze them shorters! 🔥

"We need to wait for new contract wins/renewals for the next big leg up" - You did properly read through the recent results right? Contract wins + renewals have been falling. CPI is using a hardball strategy of only chasing the top value contracts, which can work in the good times when there's plenty of business to share around but right now the landscape is shrinking and CPI has the wrong strategy for the times! IMO it's going to pay dearly at the next results.

I'm reckoning Jerome is going to play hard ball, he'll talk tough about keeping a lid on inflation i.e. he'll say something to indicate the most the Fed will drop rates by, at Sep meeting, will be 0.25% but... the tougher he talks I think the more likely markets will be to call out his bluff! The bulls assembling should quickly turn and break into a full blown stampede!

For shorters to close their positions. A bull run is beginning to form up imo. I reckon it'll push us up rapidly, to around the £1.64-£1.69 level maybe?

Conversely: 'pay peanuts and you get monkeys 🐒'

146.5p-151.5p by COP Friday imo...

I hink a global rally will start to pickup momentum ahead of the US Jackson Hole meeting. Plus gradually many are coming to realise this CF + SKY deal has changed very little on the big picture scene for UK Telecoms.

Many will look back on these current prices in a few weeks time wishing they had bought far more!

Sorry source link here: https://cityfibre.com/news/sky-and-cityfibre-sign-partnership-to-bring-sky-full-fibre-broadband-to-the-cityfibre-network

Most interesting two things about CF's announcement... source here: https://cityfibre.com/news/sky-and-cityfibre-sign-partnership-to-bring-sky-full-fibre-broadband-to-the-cityfibre-network...

1. "CityFibre has a footprint of 3.8 million today and is committed to expand its network to at least 8 million premises over the coming years." - Absolutely no commitment on timescales, very open to interpretation! does it mean 8million by 2030? 2040? 2050?... super vague!

2. "Sky’s Full Fibre Broadband is expected to be available on CityFibre’s full fibre network from next year. Longer term, this will include over 1.3 million homes in hard-to-reach areas" - Again, no solid timescales here... how long term are we talking?

Lets be frank here; if BT put out a statement this vague it'd be hit with a broadsiding of bad press critiquing the comms. However, as a smaller alt-net provider it appears CF can put out these wild/unrealistic figures without such scrutiny.

Note: supplementary to the below I should also have added this nice example:

'total no of FTTP connections' FYE 2022 = 1.8m

'total no 5G subscriptions FYE 2022 = 5.3m

Whereas:

'total no of FTTP connections' FYE 2024 = 4.7m

'total no 5G subscriptions FYE 2024 = 11.1m

Nicely demonstrating what I mean about the sales lagging behind the initial investment having been made.