Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

IMO the £2.5b figure is not achievable for CPI unless they sell something else because they only booked £1.2bn for H1 - there's £180m for sale of Capita One but AH was clear that it's earmarked for cost cutting and investment into AI... so £180m for a business the size of capita to invest into cuts and AI investment is a fair wedge but will prove easily spent.

Additionally the prognosis for H2 is for further falls yet... AH has already said this because that's why there is cost cutting going on. Plus there's no longer any revenues coming from Capita One, so the rest of the business now has to make up that shortfall too.

Lets hypothetically say H2 books £1.1bn, add that to the £1.2 and assume all of the Capita One money gets spent or maybe there is around £40m leftover... you're looking at a figure around about £2.34m give or take a few tens of millions. So yep, I reckon £2.5bn is not an achievable figure.

All IMO and DYOR.

Sadly next payday is a long way off here, last payday was last week

NoFear - I don't short stocks - I've said that multiple times and although it might be surprising to you, as it seems the case, I really am just a mere joe public working class person who has done a lot of reading about stocks. It's that simple.

Trisor - Yes, I agree that is their expectation... except in the very same report they make that statement they booked just £1.2bn for H1 Revenue which is below par for the course and on all indicators things were continuing to decline further. So aside from the Capita One sale it's the case that if the income keeps on falling then it does not take a genius to calculate that it's not just possible they may miss their full year revenue targets but it's actually probable they'll miss them.

Big US news imminent... today is bound to get rather lively! Though in which direction?!...

Trisor - you state "single digit is 1-5."

So if you were doing CPI's books for sign off then how would you display 0.9%?

You'd round it to 1% right?

Trisor - and that's the difference between our outlooks - you're expecting CPI to make more money in H2 than H1 right?

However, I am saying CPI booked weak results in H1 and I think that H2 is going to be weaker still - the only difference being the Capita One sale injecting some cash but... I'm saying this will be rapidly gobbled up with AH's cost cutting and AI adventures leaving a negligable net benefit from the Capita One sale by the time the books need to be done, as he'll have spent all of the money by then or if there's leftovers it'll be set to be spent through into H1 25.

We do however appear to have made some progress here in our discussions. As you now seem to be accepting that CPI did indeed state the following: "2024 full year outlook: Revenue Overall Group: low to mid-single digit % reduction"

Yes, Trisor - I agree that Low to mid single digit means anything from 1-5 percentage (well it means 0.51-5.49% when taking rounding effects into account)... but that's using CPI's expectations... So I was seeking to demo that if it's worse than their expectations then it really could be very painful indeed for CPI's investors.

The massive constraint of course with CPI is they've only booked £1,201.5 for H1 - i.e. it's already looking like they'll significantly undershoot their own stated '2024 FY outlook of a Revenue reduction in the low to mid-single digit %'.

They do have the Capita One sale to help them out which is why I think revenue underneath £2,174bn is a rather unlikely outcome but... if the H2 is especially harsh for CPI and the cost reductions + AI investment get out of control then it's not an impossibility IMO.

Just to clarify that I used 1.5%-9.49% to account for the possibility of the CPI whole 2024 results being at the upper single digit percentage, as the ultimate worst case scenario for CPI. If using CPI's stated range then it's only necessary to use 0.51%-5.49% range.

I was merely seeking to demo that if the results for H1+H2 come in for revenue underneath £2,174bn then that will be absolutely terrible - it is not the case that I believe that is a likely outcome.

Trisor: So CPI booked the following revenue: 2024 H1 = £1,201.5

However in the same report it states: "2024 full year outlook: Revenue Overall Group: low to mid-single digit % reduction"

So even being very generous with applying Zero Revenue reduction then the absolute maximum Revenue for H1+H2 2024 can be said to be expected to be: £2,403

However, the report states there is expectation of low to mid-single digit % reduction and so the H1+H2 Revenue is close to certain to be booked as lower than £2,403 and the range is between 1.5%-9.49% below that level. i.e. the very lowest revenue should be £2,174 and anything below that can be said to be a terrible result because it would have been worse than the worst expectations at the time of the H1 report being released.

CPI's own financial results PDF presentation states:

"2024 full year outlook: Revenue Overall Group: low to mid-single digit % reduction"

That means revenue is set to fall by low to mid single digits - straight from CPI's own document!

You can search the document for the text I've quoted:

https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2024-08/hy-24-results-slides.pdf

Trisor - You said you like facts so here is one for you:

CPI's own financial results PDF presentation states:

"2024 full year outlook: Revenue Overall Group: low to mid-single digit % reduction"

That means revenue is set to fall by low to mid single digits - straight from CPI's own document! It's clear as daylight.

You can search the document for the text I've quoted:

https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2024-08/hy-24-results-slides.pdf

JG68 - I've got the evidence to back up my claims... you lot on here bleat on about bizzare conspiracy theories, stating I'm paid to post when actually I'm just a working class joe public PI investor and I'm not going to blindly put my hard earned cash into a dying dog of a share! I've done my due diligence on the CPI financials and I ask you yet again:

Where is the evidence to back up your claims? - Show me some evidence and then I might entertain the possibility that you could be right! but so far other than insults and speculation I still see no evidence as none of you are providing any.

AimMaster2018 & Polo Tang = Two cheeks of the same backside lol - meanwhile BT SP keeps on rising as neither have any credibility.

Trisor - Can you share the source to back up your claim that "They are expecting a comeback in revenue in HY 2"?

Really simple question here and if you genuinely believe this to be true then you better had have the evidence for supporting this bold claim.

My Source - direct from CPI itself:

https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2024-08/hy-24-results-slides.pdf

Speaking of Capita Experience - here's the terrible financials for this part of the business - shocking declines from 2023 to 2024:

Capita Experience Revenues:

HY24 £513.0m

HY23 £616.4m

Operating profit

HY24 £25.1m

HY23 £39.1m

Operating margin

HY24 = 4.9%

HY23 = 6.3%

EBITDA

HY24 = £52.4m

HY23 = £70.2m

Forgot to list my Source:

https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2024-08/hy-24-results-slides.pdf

Financials - here they are:

CAPITA Annual Revenue History

2024 H1 = £1,201.5 (taking simplistic method; doubling fig; H1+H2 = £2,403 - below Trisors claim of £2.5bn, not to mention I think H2 will be worse, with fewer sales volumes)

2023 $3,501 (£2,642.1)

2022 $3,729

2021 $4,376

2020 $4,269

2019 $4,697

2018 $5,230

2017 $5,458

2016 $6,653

2015 $7,393

(Millions of US$)

Other report highlights (or lowlights I should say) states:

"2024 full year outlook: Revenue Overall Group: low to mid-single digit % reduction"

"Medium-term targets: Revenue: low - mid single digit % growth p.a."

So even CPI's own expectations state they're expecting single digit % revenue reductions , right through till the medium term.

CPI isn't a growth stock, it's damage limitation, i.e. sell off the good component parts to keep the wheels turning and leave the PI's with the hollowed out carcass . AH has a track record on this too, selling off the good parts to net income for his paymasters then depart for greener pastures.