Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Well observed JO - round of applause for you sir 🙌 👏...

Yes, though it's especially challenging for any business in poor shape... that's why economic difficulties breed both amazing success stories and terrible collapses for those businesses which find that it's all too much for them.

CPI has entered this difficult economic period in distress (albeit sale of C1 has helped)...

Only time will tell whether CPI ends up being a success story, or not.

It's little surprise UK GDP stagnated over the early summer months... the only surprise for me is that it flattened and narrowly avoided contracting.

So we now have:

Falling house prices

Flatlining GDP

Interest rates still elevated so offering little support to businesses & households

Tax rises on the horizon

So far £ has remained remarkably robust as the perception has been of USA stalling and UK growing. When what's actually taken place is the complete opposite. USA saw unemployment fall and enjoyed both growth and falling inflation.

Could UK now be about to tip into deflation and demand destruction? Due to Tory ineptitude and BoE having been yet again been far too slow to pickup on the warning signs of this slowdown?

Cutting rates is no panacea mind you... UK doing so will restoke the smouldering past fires of inflation as in this post brexit mayhem it's clear the UK economy is far more sensitive/exposed to inflationary pressures than it was previously as a member of the single market.

I fail to see how any current economic news is beneficial for CPI... the macro situation only serves to exacerbate these ongoing challenges for AH.

Enjoy the bounty! To spend or to reinvest?...

US Fed will be cutting next week. Plus some interesting news Sky are reporting on: https://news.sky.com/story/planning-laws-preventing-faster-internet-bt-boss-marc-allera-tells-sky-news-13212339

Could Labour be about to unlock the shackles on 5G mast installations throughout the nation? This could well have massive coast saving benefits for the Capex rollouts which are still in flight.

Quote taken from latest set of BT results:

"Reported revenue £20.8bn, up 1%; adjusted

revenue £20.8bn, up 2% on a pro forma basis due to price

increases and fibre-enabled product sales in Openreach, increased service revenue in Consumer with annual

contractual price rises being aided by higher roaming and increased FTTP connections, partly offset by legacy

product declines and a one-off revenue adjustment in Business"

Quote taken from

AimMaster2018- BT revenues are growing, the last set of results clearly showed sales volumes accelerating and the forward look was for further acceleration in this vital area.

It's kind of obvious really, BT installs millions of FTTP new connections and many new 5G masts... it takes some lag time but after that connectivity has been installed then people will of course take advantage and connect up to it!

Phatz - yep, AimMaster2018 took a bitter dislike to my financial analysis of CPI's past results. I challenged some posters on their discussion page, who were aggressively ramping & saying CPI could soon hit £1 SP (currently trading at £0.18p).

The history goes some months back, as I was weighing up continuing to put my cash into BT or whether to put some into CPI as well. After asking some Q's on their discussion board, to which I got no reassuring answers, I decided against investing in CPI and instead I kept on buying more BT tranches.

So that's the real reason why Aim has come onto here deramping BT.

JamesOxford - I stand by my comment where I said "please take the time to examine cpi's financials properly as they're absolutely diabolical! - This is absolutely the case. However, this does not mean I think that CPI can imminently go bankrupt so to have extrapolated my comment is a decision which you made, and is not what I actually said.

I remain in the belief that the next set of H2 results will be poor and it's no secret that the sale of C1 has bought AH and CPI some time. I have always been clear that all it has bought them is time.

Most welcome czql5v - I've read a fair bit of the Patourel case content (from the official transcript pages) and I interpreted there to be a smaller total claim than it first may have seemed from the summary of the case at the starting outset. There seems to be acknowledgement of those having taken full packages (Line rental atop of other services) were getting reasonable deals (on averages) and it's therefore possibly limited to those who just took the line rental only, where they might have been a greater prices discrepancies (again on averages). Lots is still disputed by both sides though and with judgement being reserved there could be a quite a lot more time before we all learn of the final net outcome here.

Please if anyone thinks otherwise feel free to share your views on this case.

IMO Capita cannot imminently go bankrupt - Yes, I believe the next set of results (H2) will fall short of those expectations conveyed at the last H1 results but there's no imminent threat of bankruptcy for CPI.

It's definitely the case the sale of C1 injecting ~£180mil has propped the business up by buying about 5-10 months of breathing space.

It's what occurs once that C1 sale cash has been spent that will become critical and the H2 sales volumes and amounts should be a particular area of focus for those analysing the direction for CPI.

By his own admission AH has doubled down on two things, cost cutting + investment into AI. I'm not suggesting his strategy is flawed, it's rather the timing for CPI is especially poor as these investment needs are landing right at the terminus of the 9-10yr era of decline... CPI now generates less than half the revenues (and these are still falling) that it did in 2014/15 - not to mention that to have kept pace with inflation and have remained a business of equivalent size then CPI today should have revenues about 25-30% higher than it did in 2014-15... so today CPI is even smaller than it might appear at an initial first glance over the numbers.

For me, I still think CPI is going to run into real difficulty - the investments and cost cutting efforts will use up more cash than AH anticipates and exacerbating this are issues of competitiveness on the sales side of the business. There's a lot more pain on the way for CPI yet. All IMO and DYOR.

Markets seeming a little edgy this week, on the back of the recent US jobs reports. However, it's clear the Fed will be making a cut W/C 16th, it'll boost all equities and the recent AI led drops for NVidia etc are beginning to tail off following their recent + necessary corrections.

Lots to look forward to here for BT; the stock is increasingly being seen as a safe haven to weather the turbulence, Drahi is on they way out with Bharti soon to have fully replaced him. Slim continues to buy up more and the FTTP & 5G investments keep on rolling out to the masses!

Christmas now just a little over 100 days time, many will be unwrapping new games consoles, mobiles, tablets, laptops + connecting up!

BT + EE's sales volumes for packaged deals are accelerating and with it's reputation for reliable high speed it means many are willing to pay the small change premium for those higher service levels. In the big scheme of things it's the case digital/data/telecoms services from BT + EE are offering decent value. Customers get a lot of services for their hard earned Englishes!

In 15x cities BT recently switched on AI supported technology further speeding up the 5G services to anyone in those patches and more is on the way, plus it's delivering energy savings as well as proving to be faster for customers.

AK explained at the last results that BT will soon shift it's sights towards further improving the sales and customer services offerings, I imagine this work has already begun and at the next update I think we'll be hearing more about that work underway.

Where next for BT this week and next?...

Yes, there will be some selling to take profits (always is) which may limit the speed of the upward trajectory. However, on balance I think many investors will experience FOMO with greater intensity (due to the many positives for BT now significantly outweighing the fewer downside risks) and for that reason I think there will be some small dips but each very limited in terms of selling volumes and on pence scale of such drops too; it'll make it difficult for day traders to offload with a gurantee of being able to buy back into this stock at a lower price point.

Within 1-4 weeks I think we'll be seeing £1.55-60p, mostly steady rises all the way throughout.

All IMO and DYOR!

Simpiles stated:

"I still feel we are being manipulated, we need to break free."

What does this even mean? 🤣

It's about as coherent as 'Brexit means Brexit' or as logical as appointing a minister for common sense, one whom has no sense in common! 🤣

No quality evidence put forwards here to support a positive case for CPI whatsoever... just a really bizarre set of emotive words, which do not have any logic underpinning the opinion being conveyed.

It's as though this discussion board is an echo chamber filled up with members of a 'pro CPI cult' who post self-reassuring and self-motivating words...

and anyone who dares to have the hard evidence suggesting otherwise becomes labelled & mocked as being either a paid poster or is part of the conspiracy to push the price down.

A disease the mind has deep roots on this board!

Everyone on here has lost the ability to examine the available evidence on CPI objectively.

Kiwitwo - If these USA market drops carry over into next week and spill into the FTSE you might get your wish, of being able to use your dividends to buy up lower priced BT stock.

Personally, I don't reinvest my dividends. I tend to draw them down for spending (don't think I've ever reinvested any come to think of it). However, this time is rather different because with BT we now have a credible UK Government which has pledged to support growth, plus BT now has quality investors with Slim & Bharti on board. IMO BT is going to spend the next decade slowly rising because the last couple of years have seen decade lows for the SP. Capex peak is behind us and the sales will keep on rolling into the coffers going forwards.

So IMO and for me it makes sense to accumulate a healthy stake in BT, to enjoy the ROI for the very long term. 10yrs from now BT will be trading at £7-9 a share and anyone still holding tranches at these £1-£2 levels will be doing rather nicely indeed! DYOR and all IMO.

Have an enjoyable weekend NoFear

PJT12 - It has plenty of relevance because some on here have been saying CPI can hit £1 SP. Yet CPI themselves are saying next set of results will deliver a low to mid single digit % reduction for revenues. That's not very supportive of a rising SP.

Broomtree - do enlighten me - which fact did I ignore?

As for rising stock prices - the rise that matters is the SP at the point when one buys in and the respective SP when one opts to sell... it's subjective for an individual's investment circs.

I've BT many tranches, different quantities at SP's between £1.02 and in the £1.30's

JO - for clarity since you seemed to query. No, I've never worked for CPI.

JO - I'm sure you may believe you're as cunning as a fox who’s just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford University... However, come the next trading update and subsequent H2 Full Year results thereafter I think you'll look back at your misadventure and wish you'd gotten out whilst you could do.

BadgerB - What I dream of is seeing the next results day, when CPI inevitably gets spanked. I can look on thinking 'I told you so' because when I raised genuine questions about this businesses financial I was treated really terribly by folk on here, many have made ridiculous conspiracy theory accusations and have attempted to incessantly talk up the direction of CPI, trying to convince folks into investing into this dog of a share!

Some are sadly going to lose out big time on their CPI investments but I've asked the right challenging questions here and I've forewarned you of the likelihood the results come up short. Look even CPI results themselves predict low digit revenues falls, so fundamentally that's why the SP is struggling and not because of so called 'paid to post de-rampers'.

I am just an everyday working class person, looking for a good growth business to invest few thousands of my hard earned cash into and see a return on - and this CPI stock is a steaming turd of a business + the people on this board are little better.