Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

BielsaBall2021 - True, I previously held the view BT would easily hit £1.60-65p but I think the wider macroeconomic situation has now radically shifted and it's looking dire for stocks.

The bigger picture landscape has changed and so with it there needed to be a rethink. Also when I commenced selling BT was priced £1.49-£1.52... I was correct to sell as it headed significantly lower. Yes, today it's up a fair bit but I just don't see it lasting. All IMO of course and yep, it's possible I end up being proven wrong. However, from the data I've been looking at (budget fallout, gilt yields, home sales, big ticket item sales, BoE rates, inflation figs and much more) it's all beginning to look like a broad based correction is inevitble.

Czql5v

1. I am not your mate.

2. Enjoy the small rise whilst it lasts because IMO the FTSE Indices are set to become a sea of red; the broad based correction is only 1/3rd done.

I see this playing out differently. Many have overbought speculatively; high rates are really starting to hurt now because many financially planned for a backdrop with lower rates than they currently are.

The rally yesterday morning was quickly wiped out and I think that'll be a common feature of trading days as over optimistic traders fight the financial hard realities... some who have overbought are going to be left booking bigger than anticipated losses.

Story here - DYOR:

https://news.sky.com/story/vodafone-and-three-merger-could-get-green-light-says-uks-competition-watchdog-13248644

Looking highly likely, and this will create significantly increased competition for EE especially.

AimMaster stated "I think James reason to sell is to buy in pru for the results which i think is out on thursday, he just needed an excuse hence got one."

One to watch there then!

There will be so many LOLS if them PRU results are terrible!

Observation of their Revenues and earnings: both appear on long term downward trajectories, if there's no significant change to direction of travel... Free cash flow rising of late (probably another firm selling bits of itself off, in desperation to remain afloat!)

Never did I think I'd find myself agreeing with Trisor, where T said about JO being a numpty!

Total douchebag that JO...

Professes thyself as some kinda big shot investor lol! Yet they'd be right at home 🏡 on sesame street

Fatprofits - I agree with you because of several colliding reasons which IMO are going to exacerbate issues for businesses, particularly notable for JDW are the following:

1. It's now far more pricey for firms to refinance large existing debts (as gilts have significantly elevated versus prior expectations).

2. JDW & many other firms have the 6.7% NMW hikes, the ~16% apprentice hikes and the extra NIC's to absorb.

3. Commercial property prices have taken a big hit so even if JDW opted to unload some sites it owns it'd probably raise much less cash than it may have done in past years gone by.

143.80 was the best it seemed to manage today... Slipping now though - unsurprising really, what with the Dow J on the way down & FTSE indices beginning to trim & reverse the temporary uptick seen this morning.

No doubt Trump will begin kicking off the 'Dems stole the election' rhetoric, as soon as things appear not to go his way; triggering a wave of turbulence & mayhem to break out too!

If BT results fall short & AK was prepping the press in advance, to stem the drop, then this week could get super interesting indeed!

AimMaster2018 - A matter of a few weeks back you were sharing on here de-ramping posts and also of the UBS & Polio Tang broker forecast that BT would drop to 110p... How you've changed your tune!

"You're clutching at straws." - BT is barely hanging on to 143p... IMO it doesn't bode well for the rest of this week ahead, since many FTSE stocks already turning red pretty rapidly. As US markets open up at 2.30pm I think they'll exacerbate the retreat + falls on many FTSE equities.

Some time ago I forecasted a FTSE 100 drop from ~8400 down to ~7560 and although there's been a little pause & small rally here it's my firm view there's little economic joy to help stocks right now. Widespread selling should easily resume here.

Looking as though it'll make the approach rather soon but... will it break through and lower?

Czql5v - As I stated. I've sold the entirety of my BT holdings - for chunky profits too🤟😎 - Meaning I have retained my unbroken record, of not having booked a loss since Dec 2022 when I first began buying stocks.

"Ryanair to quit UK??" - Considering O'Leary's track record... This probably means they're about to expand and launch a package holiday customer portal!

HHH81 - A frequent trait of JO - Says something and then rolls back on the words saying they meant something completely different. Ramps CPI and buys in... then a matter of weeks later commences selling (as the gravity of their error sinks in) saying they "will continue over the next couple of days until my Capita shareholding is £0"

Didn't JO claim they were a head honcho investor?! Given they appear to have merely bought in at 18-19p and have now been selling stock off for 18-20p; pretty clear that's something anyone out there could have done!

If Thursday's results are set to be stellar then why has AK opted to kick the week off with a flurry of press briefings on sell offs for parts of the business? 🤷

AimMaster2018 - You seem to have enjoy buying into businesses which actively opt to sell off their component parts. Yes, it may service those monster debts in the short term but the end result it becomes a smaller firm, with lower turnover & lower profits...

CPI has been doing precisely the same thing. Those who stay invested ultimately pay a heavy price because they buy in seeing a higher short term share price, and it's only later on down the line they come to realise they've been left holding a huge number of shares in a smaller and broken business.

Agree Phatz - One of the motivating factors for my having sold out my BT holdings is because if these results fall short on sales uptake (I think they will) then buyers for those component parts of BT which you've listed will be able to press a desperate BT on their price. Whilst the week has begun with a nice little rally I'm wholly expecting it to peter out quickly and resume the drop right down towards and possibly below £1.30p.

JO "@SavageKeyboard. Don't put words in my mouth." - LOLOL I literally quoted your own words... you can even read your post back to yourself and see precisely that...

If you didn't mean what you typed then why type it 🤷 - After all anyone can only read the words you actually type!

JO you stated: "I made my feelings clear as to why I will pull out of Capita."

And: "The market is not confident in Capita, and it will take at least 2-3 set of results to prove the Capita shop has turned around."

This is quite huge change in your stance! Previously you were heavily ramping CPI & critiquing me at every opportunity for my having called CPI a dog of a share which should be heavily shorted...

So both you and Aim appear to have both come around to my thoughts on this stock it seems! Most interesting!