Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Carrington - I agree on the sentiment that this is a devastating budget but... Lets not forget the facts that it's the Tories who recklessly spent reserves three times over, handed out dodgy contracts to their chums to line their pockets at the expense of taxpayers, and who wasted £700million on the Rwanda scheme even when, as Jenrick pointed out, they knew the scheme would fail...

The Tories have lied for their whole devastating 14yrs in power, the only Government to have finished their time in power with lower living standards than when they entered office.

Avocet123 - "Yes, Savage has not been back since the budget did not crash the EZJ sp as he predicted."

Looking like it's heading downwards on my panel here 🤔

Looking to me as though little will prevent this stock from falling below 600p in the foreseeable.

It's been my view for a while the BoE will not cut in Nov or at best will only deliver a miserly 0.25% cut (not enough to meaningfully support business/homes/equities).

It's also been my view for many weeks the main FTSE indices were looking set to undergo a 10% correction from ~8400 downwards to ~7560, and everything I've been seeing is reinforcing the views I already held.

Background seller?! - LOL that's a major shareholder that did have in their hands 14.96% of the business and they've reduced to below 14% - pretty significant decision there!

Actually, distant memory on a discussion a while back has been prompted by your words there lovelyhorsey - As a long while back along I had pointed out to someone else on here that this years interim had already been declared. Apologies just hadn't recalled that info

Does anyone have an opinion on the likely BT interim divi? - My guess is given increased input costs, from employer NIC's + Min wage increases, I reckon the board will opt to hold the interim divi at the current level (when beforehand they may have considered a small raise).

As I had mentioned before the high BoE interest rates are slashing consumer demand and simultaneously hurting all businesses + individuals holding large debts. Bailey has been too slow to take action, when compared to ECB and euro zone which just posted decent growth, supported by their summer rate trims.

Nicely spotted fleccy, cheers for sharing those details. Much appreciated 👍

Correct me if you feel I am wrong with my take on this Butmac - I did not see anything in this budget which tangibly supports either fibre rollout or BT specifically, and in fact the huge financial hits fromthe employers NIC's, Min wage rises plus BT's employees who over yrs ahead will feel the effects of significant fiscal drag (thereby somewhat demoralising them) are all pretty unhelpful for a business like BT.

The only positive I drew was the Fuel duty freeze for BT running many fleet vehicles. Interested to read other viewpoints.

TerryM1 - Under Truss 30yr gilt yeilds hit 5.06% and would have gone even higher had the BoE not intervened with emergency action! Truss almost caused multiple pension funds to become insolvent, which they would have had the BoE not been able to temporarily prop them up, to prevent their collapse...

My gosh... and then you have the audacity to state: "No mater how you spin it Gilt yields are now higher than under Truss at a time when inflation is significantly down." - simply delusional!

Today 30yr gilt yeilds are 4.7% and much of their recent rise has been due to media fearmongering by right wing gutter press!

Still no apology for the madness you and your like have inflicted upon the country by having voted and supported the Tory chancers! The very least you could do is admit they were rotten and acknowledge they ran the nation into the ground with their failed austerity and cash handouts to their mates.

My, my TerryM1...

You very clearly stated "Already gilt yields higher than Truss times when inflation substantially down, why is this not all over the BBC,"

Well I can answer this one very easily for you TerryM1... it's not on the Beeb because it simply is Not True!

Your words were supportive of Truss; you were claiming Truss kept gilt yields below those rates which they're currently trading at today. That's a supportive comment of her handling of the economy.

So curious that those like TerryM1 continue to lend supporting words for Truss and her lot who caused such utter chaos!

My, my what a state to be in to come out batting for Team Truss!

Incorrect TerryM1...

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/charts-liz-truss-resignation-uk-markets-gilts-pound-dollar-treasurys-2022-10

Aside from after help/intervention from the BoE, which gave support for the gilts markets, the yields were above the current trading rates. Only once her departure from No.10 did they meaningfully calm and that was with the BoE still providing stability support, which it did so even after sha had left office.

Not one to worry about here though, what with few having any Capital gains on their CPI investments!

Correct DarkBlue - I am not investing in toxic CPI because it's my view the next set of results will end up being a massive shock to current investors. I think sales will fall short, costs will be higher than anticipated and AH may search for ways to raise revenues. Atop of this the Budget today is unlikely to be supportive for CPI. All IMO.

DarkBlue... If only you could directly compare the SP from 2015 with today... which one cannot because there was an RI which took place and therefore it altered the share price of all CPI stock:

Sources:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/195539/capita-unveils-701mln-rights-issue-as-it-reports-wider-annual-loss-195539.html

https://br.advfn.com/bolsa-de-valores/lse/CPI/share-news/77232732/capita-plc-announcement-re-rights-issue

Buglet11 - Good point on the court case... I'd actually forgotten all about that!

JO - Capita is a sick patient... AH is severing it's limbs in a vain attempt to prevent necrosis from spreading to the torso.

I think you have to look back to when CPI was nearly a £5bn revenue business back in 2015... today it's barely scraping above £2bn, and that's been propped up by the sale of CapitaOne.

Since 2015 there's been very significant inflation... So in real terms £5bn revenue back in 2015 is roughly equal to £7.5bn today (source: https://www.hl.co.uk/tools/calculators/inflation-calculator).

So given CPI is onluy achieving ~£2.2bn revenues this easily demonstrates those who stayed invested now have many shares in a much smaller and struggling business.

Cheers Buglet11 - appreciate that and I'd never expect others to agree on politics. I firmly believe it's possible to share/discuss/raise different points of view, and not descend into blocking/insults and throwing toys out from the pram. I encourage you to share your take on where the SP could head here for BT.

Wow... I also just came across additional info about 16% pay rises for min wage for those 18-20, and 18% rises for apprentice's - BT will have many workers set to receive those uplifts.

FWIW I think it's right those see wage uplifts but these figures are much higher than recent inflation and unlike other sectors BT doesn't have a simple method to clawback these extra input costs, other than by raising prices for its brand new customers (which would no doubt put a dent in its sales volumes).

I don't think we'll be seeing the SP rally here and it reinforces my view that as the gravity of the budget sinks in the broad based stock market sell offs will carry on for many weeks long after today.