Member Info for Savage_KeyboardR

Untrue Velo... I think you'll find that I gave a thorough explanation/opinion/analysis of BT.

I explained why I had sold out the ~93% of my holdings i.e. because BoE is holding rates too high, for too long, thereby causing consumer demand to collapse, much too rapidly. Market confidence has been dented significantly by the overly high UK rates and this shows with investors selling off UK equities and bonds, to move their investments elsewhere.

There's still another few weeks until the next Nov BoE MPC and the very most they're likely to offer is a token 0.25% cut... It won't be enough IMO and so markets will keep on falling, until they do something more significant in their Dec meeting.

"It could also be that markets will be pleasantly surprised by the budget"... Interesting thoughts and I'm relieved the sensible Labour leader and his cabinet of grown ups are in charge at No 10. However, I think few will be pleasantly surprised by this budget because I think the true scale of the fiscal black hole is going to shock the markets.

"I’m gutted they didn’t decide to release a trading update this year as I was hoping to get rid of a fair majority before the budget."

markthemango1 - Looks as though everyone has been having these thoughts, except they all acted on them before you've managed to it seems :-/

Pokerchips - True, certainly the case some will sell their existing holdings because they think they can follow a market trend and then buy back in for a better rate of return... but it's also true some holders will be members of the public holding bonds and after yrs of Tory austerity they can find themselves needing to release the money that's been hoarded away in order to pay down any debts they've worked up or support their spending so as to maintain their desired living standards which they have probably found have been falling and which have been consumed by high inflation levels too.

Pokerchips - Except that Gilt Yeilds are simply determined by 'supply v demand' of gilts being traded i.e. Yeilds are rising because those holding UK gilts are selling them and because too few investors are currently wishing to purchase gilts.

UK pensioners who lend the UK Govt part of the Pension cost money (through gilts ) that allows the Govt to then pay them back a Pension...

Bit of an oxymoron because it's the case the UK has a global reserve currency. It can simply print/devalue/destroy banknotes, whenever it deems is necessary/required. The Bank of England can just issue such notes to pay pensioners their pensions and it's not necessary for the Government (well the Treasury) to 'borrow' from it's pensioners, in order to then pay it's pensioners.

Stupmy - I agree with you on the prognosis of a big drop looming. 10% correction of the FTSE 100 from ~8400 right down to ~7560 points by my reckoning and EZJ won't escape this drop as it'll be broad based. All IMO...

Pokerchump - When I explained my logic a few weeks ago I gave a thorough explanation of why I had sold out the ~93% of my holdings i.e. because BoE is holding rates too high, for too long, thereby causing consumer demand to collapse, much too rapidly. Market confidence has been dented significantly by the overly high UK rates and this shows with investors selling off UK equities and bonds, to move their investments elsewhere.

There's still another few weeks until the next Nov BoE MPC and the very most they're likely to offer is a token 0.25% cut... It won't be enough IMO and so markets will keep on falling, until they do something more significant in their Dec meeting.

There she goes! Sub 140p, which I've been calling for a while now... I think the fall will accelerate quite sharply now down towards 134p perhaps, unless strong buying occurs around the 135-136p but... I do not think buying will be on a scale strong enough to meaningfully prevent the fall here for very long.

So true, I mean just look at how strong this stock is performing today! Incredible profits to be had here today, oozing confidence!

I was invested here back in early 2023... since I sold out back then I'd believed the SP had been too rich to take out a position. My opinion validated, given today it's possible for me to buy back in for a lower price than when I sold out all of my holdings at end of March 2023...

I'm now watching this stock but not yet ready to dip my toe in because I think it probably has a little further to fall yet.

It's coming 👍

Casapinos - except that you've only counted pensions when you claim the cost of older people is low... when there's many other costs which are drawn down as benefits for older people...

You said: "so roughly 9 million of working age are NOT working(and hence adding to the benefits bill)which Ex-pensions is £241 billion, ie almost double the cost of pensions."

i.e. you've taken off pension costs and have said the other £241 billion is only paid out as benefits to working people, except that's not correct because there's many other 'welfare benefits' which pensioners receive - many of which I pointed out in the list I gave.

Anyone else sick and tired of all the UK's problems being wrongly attributed to migration...

BielsaBall2021 if you're dissatisfied with what the Tories delivered with your vote then maybe you should address your complaint to Tory HQ and their newly elected leader?

Fortunately, Labour will process the applications so those eligible can go about their lives, work + pay their taxes, just as everyone else does, and those not eligible can be sent on their way... as it's not rocket science.

Labour will win the next election because no one will wish to return to Tory ineptitude and because Reform are ideological nutters led by three passports Farage whom trots around the globe meanwhile pontificating about how awful migration is for the UK when in fact it's migration that is propping up the UK economy right now, without the money landing into treasury coffers from working migrants then there would be economic chaos as UK would be unable to service it's debts.

Casapinos - You've conveniently dropped out from your calcs many other costs like; free bus passes, pension credits atop those state pension payments, NHS costs of healthcare for the ageing population, social care costs paid by councils for older ppl, free prescriptions for over 60's, free TV licenses, mortgage interest support for older ppl and housing benefits too... to only count pensions misses the true costs.

It's also the case with 7million waiting for NHS treatment that many of those could be in work if they had their treatment expedited, yes shock horror there's a massive economic hit from pointless austerity which has ended up locking in low economic growth too.

UnluckyInvestor9 - yep, completely agree with you that taxation musy rise to ensure such payment obligations can be met. It's the Tory & right wing narrative which has completely and utterly failed because they sold the nation a lie... they tried to cut key services including by underfunding NHS, child benefits, youth clubs, police transport, councils... you name it they cut it... and simultaneously they claimed they could continue to grow the economy and cut migration too. When all this has led to is a ageing & unhealthy population who take take take from a smaller working population. They've racked up mountains of debts and have bubbled up asset prices like housing to insane levels. Completely unsustainable and yet those like fleccy incessantly whinge about how hard done by they are and how overpaid public workers are. The wealthy older generation in this country have led the decline of the UK by voting for populist self interested Tory politicians and thankfully they're now out of power.

UnluckyInvestor9 - You forgot to mention the vast majority of UK welfare spending is attributed to paying pensions.

Fleccy- lovely prose and all that but... it's not true that public sector workers are not accountable. Some do get fired for poor performance. Also are you saying that well paid public sector jobs shouldn't exist? Or should everyone working for the public sector eternally work for miserly paychecks? in pursuit for 'the greater good'? -

Just interested in really getting to the root of what your gripe/issue here really is? Do you feel hard done by? and are you of the opinion you should be being better rewarded and earning more? Or... is it just that you think everyone else is being greedy, and you think they should all be earning less?

The SP came pretty close to heading sub 140p a little earlier. Expecting another attempt today at sending this stock below 140p.