Member Info for sasa43

Hi Infor - now that we know that the interim figs. will be out in three weeks time, one should know by then how better to gauge whether Serica is 'losing its way or not'...

Not long to wait, then - hopefully, some reassurances / pleasant surprises will accompany the robust results anticipated.

As for regretting not accepting the Kistos cheeky T/O approach, you gotta be joking, bearing in mind much of our own cash was earmarked to finance it and that's history now, anyway, fortunately - any realistic offer put to the BoD would warrant serious consideration, I'm sure - sasa.

Echo that, too, Corriedog - sasa.

Hi NewK - on the acquisition front, I guess Serica will await the new PM's plans for 'encouraging' NS developments first off, by either cancelling the WPT or heavily diluting it whilst retaining the significant offsetting allowances; perhaps the latter might be more politically expedient?

As for their overseas searches, which Mitch has emphasised a couple of times recently, a 'farm in' to develop a deep value asset like Chariot's Anchois Moroccan gas find should be a safer bet if they're anxious about acquiring something at what might prove to be at, or near, the peak of the gas price looking further out.

Chariot's keen to get going with the funding of this huge discovery of theirs, post the recent CPR release and with interest rates rising to curb the relatively easy access to financing sources, hitherto, Serica could step in here with no probs for them on that score, of course...

I've mentioned this opportunity before and also that I hold shs in CHAR as well, so it's a biased suggestion, admittedly - sasa.

Hi Maverick - just seen your post re: the upcoming interims...

I'd expect them to provide a very positive forecast for H2 (pretty obvious, really, the way the gas price has remained 'centre stage' since end June) unless the new PM suddenly cripples sentiment towards the NS energy producers again, shortly after moving into No 10, like Sunak did...

If Liz Truss wins, that should be very unlikely by all accounts and Serica can / should pay out much more than the indicated 6p ps interim - agreed.

As for Kistos having another go at us, they can't come back for another six months after withdrawing their offer but it's 'open season' for others, of course.

Just hope ACW / MF are now well aware of the need to be genuinely proactive in respect of their M&A surveillance and really utilising their substantial cash hoard to major advantage at last - sasa.

Agreed, Investoroilgas - hope he finds it - sasa.

And you accused others of being 'turncoats' here, I recall, upomega - do make your mind up; these huge swings in the gas price will affect all O&G producers, including Kistos whom you now seem to warm to... sasa.

Yep, that's my hope, too, Infor, re: the forthcoming figs / forecasts and what might be decided as regards our rapidly burgeoning cash accruals - sasa.

Hi NewK - well, that's all I can think of, tbh, apart from a sizeable Serica holder or two, reducing their position somewhat but ahead of the bumper interims expected in a fortnight or so with other possible announcements to be made, would seem rather premature to me...

A possible negative 'leak' re: North Eigg, might explain it but even then, such should only be a temporary setback, if confirmed, given the dramatic benefit of the gas price upsurge on our existing profitability / H2 outlook, as things stand - sasa.

Of us yesterday and Kistos recently, might also be due to each unwinding their share accumulations in each other vis a vis their recent offer activities?

Both have retreated quite sharply; Kistos earlier last week and now Serica (more than most O&G shs on the sharp NBP decline yesterday, it seems) - just a thought... sasa.

'Don't look at the waves, look at the tide' - nice turn of phrase, there, bumpingalong - very appropriate in today's situation, I reckon...

Apparently, much of today's steep decline in the Uk gas price is due to Germany's storage tanks reportedly now being 85% full, coinciding with Ursula von der Leyen's comment about the EU devising a plan to separate power prices from the price of gas - interesting to see what they come up with, bearing in mind the onset of Winter getting inexorably closer...

Meanwhile, I'm still 'running with the tide', ahead of the upcoming H1 figs., fwiw - sasa.

Well, anything's possible, I guess, upomega but we're probably too small for them production -wise but if Nth Eigg comes in, that might change things somewhat as it'll surely enhance Sth Eigg's CoS, too. And then there's our cash, again, I suppose...

Should be an exciting couple of months ahead, anyway - sasa.

DRB83 - suggest you wait for Serica's H1 figs out in a couple of weeks time and then Nth Eigg's drilling results in October before reaching a conclusion. If the drilling outcome is successful / meets best hopes, it should double our P2 reserves; if it isn't, then the approx. cost will be minimal after development allowances when viewed against our £500m+ cash held.

Hope that helps and very much like HBR, too, after their figs. last week - SQZ and HBR are my best 'picks' in the energy sector right now, fwiw - sasa.

Quite right on that point, kign; trouble is they can operate from beyond our shores or arrange for their profits to held offshore - sasa.

Thanks Geng / ShadowLess - I had 1m shs at an ave. of 7.3p, so the painful decision wasn't taken lightly. In hindsight, I should have traded them quite actively to get my ave. down as you successfully did, Geng, &ors, so well done there; astute moves in the event...

I never trade my positions, fwiw, as it doesn't come easily to me - I occasionally add to holdings, though, either up or down, preferably the former, where the fundamentals remain intact, so there's probably a lessen there for me in future - sasa.

Hi ShadowLess - it's obviously 'Hobson's choice' to a large extent - the payout SHOULD go through within the ascribed 90 days and the residual 0.5p mkt price would render a sale now as being rather hasty, admittedly but it does remove the remaining risk which, with Mr Putin around, weighs heavily on such a decision, imv...

After more than a decade in this and very costly it's been to boot, I prefer to salvage what's left and try to redress matters overall...

GLA to the remaining stalwarts; hope it does turn out better for you than now - sasa.

Hi Mommur / raxfactor - very understandable about reducing exposure as the sp trades even higher due to the almost inexorable rise in gas prices - the decision will have to be made, though, for a reversion to the norm is almost inevitable at some point but when?

Judging by the impressive results from Harbour Energy out this morning, Serica (being much more heavily gas orientated) should also produce outstanding results next month.

Being on a possible p/e of around 5 or thereabouts even now, as as far as I can guesstimate for the full year, and stuffed with cash, it's still difficult to find better value elsewhere, with all the other possibilities we've discussed on here.

Keeping a lot of cash on deposit for a while as an expedient move, would be more appealing if inflation wasn't so rampant either; waiting for the mkt to oblige by dramatically retreating soon would justify doing so but again, guesswork.

Oh, decisions, decisions... - sasa.

Hi JEZZAC - yes, I hold my hand up as being one of the £1 value subscribers back in the day - that figure was based upon stats applicable in a markedly different state of affairs applicable several years ago where the potential was considerable / sentiment riding high, etc., - how different the world is now - if only one was clairvoyant!

I've now just sold my holding, fwiw, taking a sizeable 'hit', like most of the long suffering LTHs on here, no doubt, to bring the long running nightmare to a close at last and look to recoup the loss elsewhere over time...

'C'est la Vie', I'm afraid... GLA, anyway, for the future - sasa.

Agree with that view, hopeful - there's an old mkt saying - 'the short term trader is a long term loser', fwiw...

Nevertheless, fingers crossed for tomorrow's results - sasa.

HL always uses bid prices on their valns, Infor - sasa.

395p with their paper and cash - 462p using 67p of our own money to be precise - sasa.