Member Info for sasa43

Should be out next week, apparently - sasa.

Yep, good points there, NewK re: the short term implications of this 'Trojan horse' type deal we're confronted with here, as things stand.

I've tried to look at what we know so far, as objectively as possible but just about every aspect of this deal is slanted in Tailwind's / Mercuria's favour to me, which raises the $64K question : -

Why have Serica's Bod agreed to such a one - sided deal and on such paltry terms for us shareholders who'll pay the price for it? Merely to 'feather the nests' of the senior outgoing Serica team? Surely not, after all their long and successful stewardship of this company!

DTP raises many of the same questions I'm asking myself and we can only hope that the major shareholders / Instos etc., will be doing the same, as they'll have a bigger say in the outcome here than us PI's, of course - otherwise... sasa.

Yes, Barry - as NewK rightly pointed out, a cash deal doesn't involve gaining near control over our company which Mercuria look to be after, winding up with having some 28% of the equity, as things stand - a very ominous sign that for the present holders - sasa.

Echo that 'surrender' implication entirely, NewK - sasa.

posters on here trying to decipher any benefits from this prospective 'horlicks' of a deal, as far as I can see, that we're being forced to consider.

The BoD (ACW / MF in particular) have an awful lot of explaining to do over what they're proposing here - effectively emasculating our company as far as I can work out. It seems they're prepared to secure their own retirements at their shareholders' expense and based on what perceived / spurious attractions Tailwind might bring to the party?

Their tax losses (assumed to be transferable) will probably be scrapped by Labour when they're in power in two years time anyway, so that risk to us is very real to say the least. The pro rata valuations placed on us v Tailwind must be embarrassing to the other Serica board members, if not to ACW and MF themselves, surely?

Their integrity is 'on the line' here, I'd say and thus their reputations, too, if that means anything these days - sasa.

Hi NewK - yep, I'm just trying to wade through it all - I did have an enjoyable break, thanks but this RNS on my return has been quite a shock.

Either ACW / MF have lost their way, in stark contrast to ACW's brilliant BKR deal a few years ago or they're exceptionally gullible today in contemplating this deal on what appears to be 'agreed' between them and Mercuria. At least, AA was 'upfront' about wanting our cash hoard!

If memory serves, Serica got authority to issue up to 10% of our equity a few months back, 'if need be' - does that mean their heavier dilutive plans now envisaged require further authorisation? If so, they might yet be scuppered on this aspect of the proposal, no?

Still trying to get my head around this 'dog's breakfast', tbh - sasa.

And am horrified at this proposed Tailwind deal as things stand. Haven't yet got a clear understanding of what's involved but intending heavy equity dilution for the owners of the company rather than using Serica's 'Ace' in the pack (huge cash pile) looks incompetent to me.

If the people backing Tailwind didn't want our cash, then 'tough titty' - walk away - simples...
With shareholders rapidly losing confidence in ACW / MF's latest decision, I suggest we pepper their website with what the majority of us LTHs think of it and the disdain they've engendered ; being so close to the Christmas break looks very suspicious to me, too - sasa.

Has global warming or climate change been cancelled, then? - sasa.

On the contrary, Serica's in an enviable position right now, profit and cash wise, with their unexpected 'bonanza' in 2022, on both counts. The BoD, however, seem flummoxed as to how best to utilise their / our good fortune so far but let's hope ACW / MF have something unexpectedly positive to announce shortly as this bumper year draws to a close.

'Hope springs'..., despite the lateness of the hour - sasa.

Yep, generally agree with that, Compooter - it's amazing how these 'Stop Oil' zealots haven't thought what their mantra would usher in if they succeeded in their warped agenda. Apart from peeps dying unnecessarily without heat / power, etc., the transition to 'green' energy needs oil & gas powered industry right now to build out the infrastructure for it - it can't be achieved in 'five minutes'...

Those idealists sticking themselves to the roads 'for the cause' need to be left there to unglue themselves with motorists seeking alternative routes around them and then they'd soon get the message and how did those activists get there to demonstrate, anyway?

Did they all walk or cycle to their demo? Somehow, I don't think so... Naivete just doesn't come into it! - sasa.

Echo that, Infor - 'tis sad but true right now but cash is King, regardless, especially in todays conditions and we'll yet have our day in the Sun - sasa.

Hi infor - your p/e estimate accords with mine, fwiw. There must be a very good chance that their earnings will treble this year to around 100p ps, hence a price/ earnings ratio of 3 x looks very likely.

A recent assessment relayed on here thought that 150p was quite possible this time, so if that transpires, it brings it down to a multiple of only 2 x and with todays yield of some 6% ahead of a possible hefty divd hike and / or a 'special' distribution being announced with the 2022 figs. in April, Serica remains statistically 'cheap as chips' currently, as you and I both contend...

The mkt just needs a positive announcement to get this going which looks well overdue, imv - sasa.

Yep, have to agree with that, TerryM1, especially the last para of your post, as both of 'em have a business orientated background, too.

Big let down by them pandering to expedient vote getting, being in the last chance saloon currently but that is surely a lost cause by now - sasa.

We need to see some action here to get the mkt's attention, pure & simple; just sitting on a fast growing enviable hoard of cash isn't good enough...

That Serica remains as 'cheap as chips' while inaction prevails is a given - sasa.

Yep, very disappointing outcome from that meeting with industry reps. Hunt was merely trotting out platitudes and he, purportedly, was once an entrepreneur who has 'nous' when it comes to business confidence - that's clearly been abandoned now for political expedience!

Serica needs no greater incentive after this to invest their massive cash hoard to fund an overseas 'farm in' or outright offer for a major asset holder yearning for development finance.

The likes of Chariot spring to mind here with their massive Anchois gas discovery needing a backer or buyer to get this into production which conveniently sits at the foot of the EU. It's of a small mkt cap right now to warrant a significant / justifiable premium to acquire it if Serica is serious and wish to be the operator and they have this experience, too, whereas Chariot doesn't.

A share offer + a 'cash sweetener' would surely do the trick and could well be another 'transformational' deal for them after all this time to complement ACW's 'swan song', before any other group muscles in on it.

C'mon guys, now's the time to go on the offensive - sasa.

Kistos abandoned its offer for Serica in August and can't come back again for six months, so February is the earliest for them to have another go at us, if AA's so minded...

A lot can happen between now and then and ACW / MF will be well aware of that remaining 'window' to do something beforehand to assuage our concerns, quite apart from the risk of another approach from elsewhere in the interim.

A significant increase in the divd or a 'special' lined up after this years bumper outturn must be 'odds on' if there's no target of their own to go at; the latter seems more likely to me, given the 'one off' doesn't require repetition. - sasa.

Echo that, Mommur - that's not before time.

Sense versus the popularity vote, then; difficult to call that one normally but with the election only two years away, I fear the short life of a Government running scared, / their seats on the line, etc., I suspect the latter will prevail - sasa.

Hi chinch - agreed our 'deposit' is not guaranteed but our cash reserve is substantially higher than any bank's \ building society's solvency ratio (remember Northern Rock last time?) so with no debt either, Serica looks a much safer prospect on this, albeit academic comparison, I reckon - sasa.

Serica's fast becoming the equivalent of a quoted bank deposit at this rate, given the minimal EV of the business as things stand. We're yielding 6% right now!

When interest rates begin to decline, though, our income will keep rising, given the burgeoning eps cover of the present divd rate which must surely rise after this year's record results are ruled off and reported in April.

What a weird but safe investment characterisation we have right now with all the other possibilities in the price for nothing! - sasa.

Echo your comment, NewK, re: "more action henceforth" now that the Nth Eigg outcome is known - the waiting for that result is now behind us - sasa.