Member Info for sasa43

Thanks for posting this assessment from Moram, flex - hadn't seen it myself.

Interesting that their eps forecast for this year is 50% higher than my guesstimate, putting the sp on a p/e of 2x versus my 3x multiple currently which is encouraging ...

The Nth Eigg outcome is due any time now, so fingers crossed for that and also hope ACW / MF really do have plans to put much of their burgeoning cash pile to good use, as all us LTHs have been advocating for quite a while now - sasa.

It should read 'If' Nth Eigg isn't a commercial prospect in the event, of course... sasa.

Yep, agreed, HBLU - I guess the current dull sp showing reflects the apprehension here over the upcoming Nth Eigg outcome; it it's not a commercial prospect in the event, the sp's drift back is likely to be quite shallow from this level I'd imagine but if it is successful, then a sharp re-rate should rapidly ensue...

Meanwhile, we're now in the last month of what should be Serica's best year ever in this high gas price environment, so much to look forward to, especially if ACW / MF are to react proactively to it accordingly, one hopes! - sasa.

Yep, that's pretty much it on the BKR deal, flexmw - revenues from them this year are 66.66% higher than 2021 (participation rising from 60% to 100%) and there's the Nth Eigg drill result upcoming next month which, if successful, should materially boost our potential reserves.

More detailed info. on the website, of course, BanburyB - sasa.

Roger, NewK - no probs... sasa.

The 100% BKR receivables only started this year, I recall, NewK - just sayin'... sasa.

Hi Mommur - Roger that, re: only 'trimming' your holding much higher up but still very timely, nevertheless, as and when a re-entry looks compelling...

I wondered, too, if the increased WFT might well stunt interest in the current licensing round? It might also prompt some of 'em to relinquish recent awards, since their applications were predicated upon info. prior to this latest imposition.

A dose of reality would do this Govt. a lot of good! - sasa.

Hi Mommur - fair comment about ACW / MF reinvesting their 'freebie' divd monies in further SQZ shs now to convey commitment at this stage, too. Maybe, the Hardys are thinking the same way as well...

Astute reduction at 443p, in retrospect, - nice one... sasa.

That 'deal with 'Mattresses r us' quip made me chuckle, NewK - with the Nth Eigg outcome only a fortnight or so away and this most successful year being ruled off in five weeks time, there should be something to latch onto very soon.

If Nth Eigg doesn't deliver in the event, the costs 'written off' won't be significant in relation to our burgeoning 'mattress' but if it's commercial and 'clean' to exploit, that'll get this going, at last, surely?

In these anxious times, with so much COH and selling a near recession - proof commodity, despite the politically contrived WFT increase from Jan1st coming in as things stand (still can't quite work out the net effect of this latest imposition on us, unfortunately) a share selling on a likely multiple of 3 x odd for 2022 and yielding some 6% currently is so cheap right now.

After we know 'what's what' with Nth Eigg, then ACW / MF will surely move onto the 'front foot', at last - perhaps utilising their 10% 'buy back' authority for starters to get the sp 'off the floor' as a spring board to something more profound in mind - 'hope springs', etc., - sasa.

I can't get my head around this investment allowance conundrum, either, Roth...

This 'Autumn Statement' merely panders to outdoing Labour on further penalising Nth Sea operators providing our domestic energy supplies and Jeremy Hunt purports to be an ex entrepreneur - what a sick joke, that is!

What other businesses would be expected to endure an aggregate 75% tax charge and remain committed to operating here? He's clearly given up on all that to save what's left of the Tories' re-election chances which look about NIL to most of the electorate henceforth - if ever ACW / MF needed an incentive to redouble their efforts to seek an overseas deal in utilising their considerable cash firepower, this must surely be it!

Relocating the Co. offshore wouldn't be a bad idea, either... sasa.

Thanks rivaldo for relaying this very useful assessment of Kape's outlook.

Hopefully, the shs will soon begin to re- rate to properly reflect the potential here, given this essential growth industry nowadays - sasa.

Put another way, it's like being offered £1 for 44p with a 6.25% yield to boot, I make it.
Talk about looking a 'gift horse', etc., but there you go... sasa.

Echo that sentiment, Mommur; best to 'hang fire' for a short while until some clarification is to hand...

Meanwhile, with interest rates rising, there must be an increasing array of leveraged targets / 'farm in' situations available on much better terms now for ACW / MF to ponder, given we're in the opposite camp, LARGE and earning quite a bit more on deposit while we wait.

No bad place to be really, while we wait to know what they'll do with it all: invest their cornucopia or return a good deal of it to us? - sasa.

Well, could be a possibility, I suppose, NewK but the addition of P2 is peanuts and with this Govt's ineptitude in stimulating our domestic NS developments, they're just as likely to curtail tax loss reliefs at this rate!

Better to go 'offshore' for the likes of Chariot as we've discussed on here before, I'd say - sasa.

Yep, agreed, graking but at what knock down price? Better something than nothing, though, I guess; at least this 'Chapter 11' was secured giving them some breathing space, otherwise 'Chapter 7' would have been 'curtains'! - sasa.

Hi Vestry - that this is 'cheaper than chips' right now, is a given - agreed.

Just need the management to get a grip on their investment arm to give this a decent lift from here, which might then stimulate some interest in this overtly bargain basement situation; meanwhile it travels unnoticed by all but a few... sasa.

'Hardy selling?' - unlikely chinch, given the size of their holding; they'd need to place a decent chunk with an Insto or two 'off mkt' to meaningfully lighten up on their position and there's no really substantial sales showing in today's trades into the close, so far at least... sasa.

Warrants a statement from the Co. to maintain an orderly mkt - could be a disappointing 'leak' from the initial Nth Eigg drill result or an operational problem as some have suggested; don't think the possibility of an increase in the WFT would prompt such a sudden decline as this...

Whatever the reason, Serica should put out an RNS without delay, if it's either of the first two, as it looks rather ominous at this juncture - sasa.

Agree, Mommur - the media, especially the BBC who claim to be impartial (laugh) in their news reports, never mention what the total tax take is already on the UK Reg'd NS oil operators - it would be too embarrassing for the Govt for that to be appreciated, I guess...

Maybe, Serica and the like, should advise Sunak that they're contemplating moving their registration 'offshore' if he increases the WFT rate any further, or invest outside the UK henceforth to protect their margins when fossil fuel prices decline again...

Whilst the world is sensibly concentrating all the more on 'clean / green' energy alternatives, it needs industry to build out that infrastructure and the factories which do are powered by oil & gas to produce it, quite apart from keeping the lights on / heating our homes in the interim...

As for Labour's commercial ignorance in all this, it really beggars belief! - sasa.

The sp hasn't downward adjusted by the 8p ps divd being 'xd' today so far, at least but encouraging, nevertheless, if it holds into the close...

Hope I haven't put the mockers on it in saying that! - sasa.