Member Info for sasa43

You're welcome, chinch - you're right re: your last para presenting an additional risk, possibly, for the UK O&G operators which probably explains the drift back in SQZ's sp this morning in contrast to KIST's further rally in theirs... sasa.

If anybody's on here to be reminded? - sasa.

Hi NormaS - "This is hilarious" you say - you're quite right, 'cos the pathetic mood swings we've seen from some on here since last night's conclusion, not to mention the intense hostility towards our BoD for having made the right decision, imv, beggars belief but there you go...

'C'est la Vie', I suppose - sasa.

Hi chinch - well, at least Serica has helped you to retire early, despite their obdurate management which has been consistent throughout your long involvement with the co - so, presumably, you'll be grateful for that...

ATB with your retirement plans, anyway - sasa.

chinch - there are many assumptions here in your post, I'd have to say...

That AA is a successful deal maker isn't disputed; that was much of the problem, I suspect. He first approached Serica, if I recall, with a 'low ball, then reduced it on his second 'improved terms' if you work it out, rather than increasing it, which is odd, to say the least...

Unless, of course, you think it's a good idea to largely assist a buyer to buy your business, well below par, with your own money? Maybe, you missed that aspect of his novel approach, too?

How do you know Serica never discussed this deal with Kistos; just because AA said so? Also, you don't know whether Serica indicated a price they were prepared to consider doing a deal at any more than I do.

Perhaps, AA couldn't afford a realistic price to pay, bearing in mind they're half the size of us, in terms of Mkt cap, energy production, operator ship, CoH, etc., - apart from Serica's seemingly lethargic approach to their, almost forgotten, M&A policy and I do agree with that criticism, there was very little synergy to be gained from such a merger that I could see, anyway.

Might not you be better off selling this poorly run outfit then, in exchange for more 'go go' Kistos shs - maybe AA will be luckier next time... sasa.

Have always respected your views on here, dick but as you clearly dislike being 'ripped off' by the BoD in their selfish and extravagant LTIP awards, etc, (which I largely agree with, I have to say) why don't you sell your shares and reinvest elsewhere to ease your frustration?

Unless, of course, it's difficult to find better value / such financial utilisation potential elsewhere right now. If the latter's squandered via a share BB after all this, I'll be annoyed as anybody, though! - sasa.

The Kistos offer was indeed derisory, GeneralL and deserved to be rejected, accordingly.

What's the point of engaging earnestly with someone so undervaluing our Co? Would the disgruntled shareholders on here now been happier if our BoD had agreed to it this afternoon?

Had a realistic offer been made (ref: starting with a '5' again, as quite a few on here agreed recently) would have likely made all the difference about engagement on Serica's part - it would certainly have been difficult not to accept that, if put to shareholders but AA wouldn't, or more likely couldn't, run to that.

Am very surprised to see all the animosity now being aimed at our BoD by quite a few holders who'd previously railed against such an inadequate offer being remotely serious for acquiring our company and, anyway, how do we know they didn't engage usefully before turning it down again? We only have AA's views on that - possibly out of pique on his part?

Wish some of you on here would make your mind up... sasa.

Roger that, OilMan - no hard feelings here, I'm sure - sasa.

was a 'bridge too far' for the, albeit renowned, deal maker - but let's hope some of AA's dynamism rubs off on us, too! Good decision ACW / MF - sasa.

Echo that relief, NewK - now Serica is on its mettle, surely, to 'vigorously step up its renewed M&A search / proactively utilise its burgeoning cash accruals henceforth' rather than just let it accumulate as before.

Assuming KIST now walks away, I guess the BoD would have learned a useful lesson here and not let others attempt to exploit their financial strength without paying a realistic price for it - an invigorated Serica should become even more exciting looking ahead - sasa.

Fascinating read that from Palliser capital, NewK, re: Tullow's attempt to merge with Capricorn now they've got an abundance of cash on the balance sheet, whereas Tullow hasn't - well worth the link, thanks - sort of rings a bell with another situation I'm aware of!

Hope you're steadily recovering from your covid exposure and release from isolation is close at hand. ATB - sasa.

Agree Manuel, as sad and unjust as it is after all this time, the investment case here is finished - sasa.

Good riposte, TDT - it's so easy, too easy, to chortle about our short comings but against the totalitarian regimes in the world, they're so much worse, as many 'refugees' risking life and limb to get here would undoubtedly testify - sasa.

Hi Manuel, good to hear from you and hope you're well...

Yep, you win some, you lose some - fortunately for me, Serica has produced more than the £55k odd I'll lose here with, hopefully, a fair bit more to come from them - hope you've still got yours... ATB - sasa.

'blocking the deal was in respect of the despatch of the $ proceeds outside Russia after the 90 day delay, post agreement to it, not the sale itself - sasa.

after all these years of funding, hoping and waiting.

We're in the 'last chance saloon' now, folks, make no mistake and they're only two realistic choices available to us:-

1. Accept the 1.8p divd now in respect of the sale of the Irosta sub which holds the mining licence and run on with its parent, Amur Minerals, with some $10m cash in the bank currently, hoping they can find an alternative scheme outside Russia to invest in subsequently or, if you think the deal is 'Yes' to proceed but might not get approval from the RF even now, then:-

2. Sell your AMC shs forthwith for some 1.25p in removing that risk and have done with it.

That's my take on this denouement, fwiw - sasa.

Hi QC - just got back in and seen your post / question re: how an NBP mean reversion now would affect Serica's valuation / SP?

Well, all things being equal (which they never can be) it would be lower than today's price, obviously; maybe back to, say, 250p in todays circumstances as a pure guess but I don't see the point really in addressing such a hypothetical question until the LTA is with us and what the micro / macro backdrop would then look like.

We are where we are currently and it'll be some time before that reversion is seen, by all accounts. If, however, VP suddenly brings the Ukraine war to an end / the West resumes buying his gas, regardless, etc., it could occur much quicker than anticipated, I guess...

If that happened, maybe Serica would then strive urgently to go out and acquire something worthwhile with all their dosh to counter all the brickbats surrounding their desultory M&A record so far to surprise us all or, at least, hire a specialist to assist them, you never know! - sasa.

No probs, upomega - we're all in the same boat here, rowing the same way; at least the genuine LTHs are...

Still waiting to learn from SpArmada, btw, what value he places on Serica today, having pooh poohed my assessment yesterday and why? - sasa.

Yep, that, too, upomega - sasa.

So you think that Serica's still cheap, then, Maverick, despite the management's 'disgraceful performance' post their transformational BKR deal a few years ago - we agree on the 'value' argument, at least.

Not as much ambition as AA's deal making activities, granted; maybe they were too preoccupied in bedding down the BKR assets / staff transfers / sorting out several probs with maintenance / changing a long section of a waxed up pipe line / detaching a dangerous caisson / finally developing Rhum 3 / bringing Columbus online and now they've just 'spudded' Nth Eigg which may or may not, double their P2 reserves if they bring it in successfully.

Yeah, that's what running a successful upstream O&G outfit regularly involves rather than chasing deals, per se. Despite those preoccupations, they have been too cautious on that front with all their cash not put to work ('not overpaying / value not volume', etc., ) in hindsight, granted and have 'taken their eye off the ball' in that regard and now run the risk of being acquired by AA in consequence. They clearly didn't see him coming - that's also true.

I'm no 'flag bearer' for Serica, btw but given the facts of where they are now / their statistical appeal and concomitant desirability today, owes more to hard work than pure luck and any buyer should pay a realistic price for the shares and it starts with a '5' on my calcs... sasa.