Member Info for sasa43

I certainly agree that a share buy back would be the least appealing route to go down currently, Maverick, as it would be tantamount to a selfish 'cop out' but agreeing with this new poster that the BoD are a disgrace, given where we are today, is excessive criticism and unwarranted, bearing in mind the performance of the sp over the past year or so.

If you and SpArmada really think that, then why hold any shs in a Co. where you have such disdain for the people running it? - sasa.

So what 'fair value' would you ascribe to Serica, then, SpArmada? - sasa.

Fair comment, surprised, re: the present state of affairs.

Yes, most of the LTHs on here agree, I think, that the present offer from Kistos is well below what constitutes 'fair value' so where might that reside?

I've considered from the outset that to get to that level, any offer (all in cash, ideally but for the most part, anyway) needs to start with a '5' in front of it and if it takes an additional 150p cash boost to augment the existing terms proffered, to bring it up to some 575p, as NewK suggests, it would then constitute that on current stats and perceived prospects, I reckon.

Whether AA can / would run to that, either via bond issuance or temporary 'bridging' finance, remains to be seen but we'll know very shortly. It's also worth considering that, if he does, it would be very difficult for Serica's BoD to argue that its last offer still 'materially undervalues the Co.' at that sp level, imv, notwithstanding the Nth Eigg outcome, which could go either way.

Moreover, such a fulsome valuation would probably nullify Serica's counter attack of a substantial 'special divd' announcement from them, of say, 100p ps, as such a much enhanced cash element from AA, even reduced accordingly, would comfortably exceed that.

As much as I remain very supportive of SQZ, their 'radio silence' to date could well cost them their escape from AA's clutches if they're not careful / don't 'pull the proverbial out of the hat' somehow at this late stage.

Everything has its price, after all - sasa.

'So, who took BP's 5% stake, too, for that matter?' Yes, who was it and do they still hold it?

Well remembered that unanswered question, NewK - that holding could now be pretty crucial at this delicate stage, especially if the holder is aligned with AA's plans - sasa.

That made me laugh, NewK; your last para - spot on - sasa.

Yep, NewK - the pot seems to be being well and truly stirred now as the w/e and / or the 9th approaches - sasa.

If Serica has no acquisition plans of its own 'up its sleeve' to thwart such a final, cash orientated, improved offer like you've suggested, NewK (given cash is very much 'king' at present) then their only defence would be to announce a substantial 'special divd' / capital repayment proposal as many on here have been calling for.

Doing so would prompt AA to reduce his revised offer to that extent, as he's already stated he would so, unless another party enters the fray, that seems almost inevitable, unless they decide to recommend acceptance, of course... sasa.

Yep, am inclined to agree with that, NewK, as upping the equity element now seems exhausted.

Senior secured bonds or even a lesser prior charge like a convertible might suffice, given his charisma / deal making record, etc; whatever, the voting outcome will be the deciding factor, as you say. A 575p combo would be very difficult to defend if he upped the 'ante' to that extent.

Still find it puzzling, though, that Serica has kept 'schtum' since urging us shareholders merely to 'take no action' at this stage - Rothschilds are usually quite proactive in these situations, if memory serves but then they might yet be working on something significant to surprise us all!

So you never know - 'Hope springs'... and all that - sasa.

We should know whether the 'deal maker' or the 'business operator' wins the day here.

With the rash of RNS 8.3s coming thick and fast, it's difficult to know who'll come out on top, although the relative sp performances over the past few days, suggests to me that Serica currently has the edge as a steadier sp showing for them has been seen.

Let's hope that pointer culminates in AA walking away, given his revised terms are nowhere near enticing enough and Serica can now get down to gainfully utilising much of its surplus cash rather than just hoarding it - sasa.

Echo your comments, RELLIM, for NewK's continuing recovery and the effort / views he contributes to this BB - invariably interesting, imv - sasa.

If not BP, then maybe a better fit for Ineos? - sasa.

Hi NewK - glad you're okay with 'flying colours' post your 'brush' with Covid... sasa.

Yep, fair comment, Quintus - the offer certainly needs to be 'sharpened up', as you say.

Can't see AA using any more of the equity element realistically, so he needs to pony up on the cash side of it, if he's going to get anywhere, imv, rather than use Serica's own cash to succeed - sasa.

Precisely, flexmw - sasa...

Hi Maverick - well, I've tried to explain why I think that if everything is abandoned shortly, KIST is much more likely to be vulnerable to a sharp setback in its sp than Serica, 'cos it's risen so much beforehand to an ATH, through significant support ops on its behalf.

Serica, on the other hand hasn't, being some 11% below its ATH even now - hence my view that it should prove a good deal more resilient on the downside from here and I don't see why the MMs would necessarily 'punish' Serica for avoiding a 'chancy' T/O for it, in that event.

After all, AA instigated the approach and he'll be the thwarted party - I just hope that this experience galvanises Serica's BoD to be a lot more proactive in addressing the need to gainfully utilise their excessive cash hoard than just sitting on it, as many of us shareholders have called for on here.

Anyway, we'll see soon enough, ATB - sasa.

to be concluded, one way or the other, it's interesting to note that six months ago, Kistos and Serica were both trading around 330p - the difference now is quite stark; KIST's sp has jumped 65% since then to 545p today, whereas SQZ has only risen by 14% to 375p.

That's quite telling how much AA's outfit has been heavily supported to date whereas Serica's pedestrian sp showing, implies quite the opposite. Worth bearing in mind if both their 'indicative' bids for each other come to nought shortly; KIST's sp is odds on to retreat quite significantly if their efforts fail on considerable disappointment, in contrast to Serica's much more likely resilient showing in such an outcome.

Ergo, KIST's shareholders might want to bear this vulnerability in mind currently - just sayin'... sasa.

Yep, sensible post, simonL - I'm ex fund management / the City, too and my exposure here is similar to yours and, indeed, am also considerably 'overweight' in the NS O&G producers as well - for the time being, anyway, fwiw... GLA - sasa.

Agreed, CEObaib - Chariot has a considerable resource of what the world urgently needs right now and it'll be developed, regardless... When needs must, etc.,

Many alternative holdings involve discretionary spending considerations; not so here, though - sasa.

Much more likely that Kistos is being temporarily supported again, NewK - agreed.

With AA holding around 17% of his flagship, I can't see Serica getting any real traction with their offer, unless they bid an absurd price for it - perish the thought - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - Yep me, too, re: your closing comment; know the feeling only too well... sasa.