Member Info for sasa43

Echo that, Jimmy - sasa.

Serica's Xmas party menu made me chuckle, NewK ... sasa.

Hi NewK - given that Serica is over 4 x the size of Chariot (current mkt caps) a share offer + cash top up could be quite easily arranged if SQZ so desired.

E.g A 1:7 share offer by Serica + £100m cash would equate to around 50p (at 280p for SQZ) and represent a sizeable premium over CHAR's current price, as things stand. However, a best case CPR validation of their gas resources could materially change that to possibly bring Total Eren into it, given their co-operation on the transitional power side and we all know how SQZ are not keen on 'overpaying' for anything.

If Nth Eigg delivers, that's the most cost effective way for Serica to double its 2p reserves and leave ample CoH to fund a 'farm in' to Chariot's gas assets if they're minded to, where they'd welcome that financial assistance at this development stage for them on good percentage terms, too, I'm sure...

All conjecture at this early stage for Serica, anyway - sasa.

Have just seen Jimmy's comments on the CHAR BB re: Serica's possible involvement with it after their previous interest, apparently; didn't know that, either, tbh...

Don't think SQZ will be doing anything, however, until Nth Eigg is determined one way or the other. If, as we hope, it's successful, then they'll probably line up Sth Eigg next door as it looks a very similar prospect on the seismics, although smaller, of course.

If it's non - commercial in the event, then they might possibly look at a CHAR 'farm in', post their PCR, if it's really impressive as implied, for they'd certainly look an appealing prospect to be involved with (a huge Moroccan gas resource, near shore, on the EU's doorstep) but anything more than that, would be too great a 'step change' for them, I'd say...

Just my take on it, fwiw - like NewK, I hold both, so 'fair disclosure' and all that - sasa.

Echo that, re: CHAR, NewK - on both counts - sasa.

Couldn't agree more, NewK - 'value always outs in the end', as they say...

Interesting that MF is now considering other acquisition / 'farm in' areas as well as the NS, presumably if Nth Eigg doesn't deliver. Such a policy revision looks commendable, imv and if Serica announced a decent deal, either domestic or elsewhere, it would surely wake up Mr Market and get the ball rolling at last! Hope springs... sasa.

as most seasoned investors on here will know.

The present inability (for now, anyway) of Serica to reflect anything near its true value owes more to peeps securing gains on the few remaining profits they'll have on the likes of this one to offset growing losses elsewhere. It's human nature to lessen the pain of it all by doing so, regardless of value; they just want to get into cash for the duration as they're scared, especially those who've over extended themselves / borrowed money to get on board the earlier 'gravy train' when it was so inviting...

Seen it many times before in my time but many newbies haven't and they panic. For the true investor, however, it's just a 'waiting game' for the inevitable recovery to get going at some point and when it does, the strongest growth situations, will be in the vanguard to handsomely reward their patience.

Serica must rank amongst the best of these, given its financial strength / burgeoning revenues this year and being heavily into the right sector of the energy market with the latest interim divd intention to usefully boost the yield clearly being a testament to that.

Finally, it's worth remembering that bear mkts savagely sort the 'wheat from the chaff' bringing many more acquisition targets / 'farm in' possibilities into view and thus Serica's, albeit frustrating conservatism hitherto, could yet pay off to major advantage.

So, no worries, me - just stick with the healthy 'tortoise' - sasa.

I'm sure that Rishi has had an 'ear bashing' about the WPT, Mommur, from dismayed, non super majors, like Serica / Harbour, etc., with the 'U' turn on it for political expediency to move the glare off BoJo back then. Politics, ugh...

Clearly, it was hastily put together / not sufficiently thought through in consequence; we might yet see an amendment to it if we're lucky but I'm not holding my breath.

Meanwhile, after today's presentation / the introduction of an interim divd and likely 'material' increase in the final for this year, Serica's prospective yield bounds into view to add to the other 'positives' en route, so I'd anticipate a strong sp recovery now the XD adjustment is out of the way - sasa.

Thought you might be 'well pleased with that interim announcement', upomega, putting the yield up to a prospective 5.25% at the current price, with the possibility of a 'material increase' to be considered with the finals, too - quite a pragmatic approach with earnings clearly 'on a roll' for this year - sasa.

Well, they might possibly do that, upomega - 'throw in an interim' - with the H1 results in September, who knows? Their earnings should be ballooning right now and if we get a positive drilling outcome from Nth Eigg around that time, too, well...

Lots to look forward to, imv - sasa.

No investment advice, upomega but unless interest rates rise dramatically from here to exceed the present rate of inflation (currently knocking on 10%) savings plans will still be offering you a negative real rate of return, so that doesn't get my vote, I'm afraid.

The total return from Serica, however, should easily surpass that this year (9p ps divd income + only 20p on the sp from here equates to it) given what we all know about on the enhanced revenue front for 2022 and other possibilities in this bumper year ahead.

Not guaranteed the capital growth element, I grant you but it's looking odds - on to me unless the whole world falls apart - sasa.

Even more important for a sustainable recovery will be the calibre of the new management running ops. and their near term achievements to begin restoring confidence after the utter 'horlicks' the outgoing lot made of it.

It'll take some time to remedy Pure's much tarnished image over the past year or two but a 'bull' run in the AU price will certainly help, agreed - sasa.

Yep, weird that trading by Blackrock; in one minute and reduce the next - thought the day traders were bad enough being only interested in a small turn here and there...

However, can't think that the 3% odd yield was the reason for it really, NewK, since they knew that beforehand but, Hey Ho, the potential for a 'sea change' remains intact as ever at some point, imv. Ex the 9p divd tomorrow - sasa.

our huge and growing cash pile rumbles on and there are 'pros and cons' on both sides of the argument, as always.

Personally, I'd prefer to see the outcome of drilling Nth Eigg, possibly Sth Eigg and, maybe, skerryvore, too, if they prove commercially exploitable, before any major decision about the then net cash accumulation is undertaken.

Any successes here would significantly enhance Serica's potential production profile and our valuation accordingly to justify the acceptable cash expenditure / risk, etc., and ACW and MF seem to have this in mind, too. Quite sensible, imv...

If they are failures, though, we'd have to expect a temporary setback in the sp, of course but cash will still be growing apace and then an acquisition and not necessarily a current producer, gains more credence in such circumstances, surely?

I can think of one offhand but that's more to the liking of AA's Kist, I'd say and Serica's always adopted a 'Steady Eddie' approach to things apart from their very successful BKR deal with BP.

Meanwhile, back to the 'special divd' or share buy back alternatives. I'd much prefer the former, since the shareholders would then have the option of adding to their position here / elsewhere or spending the cash on something else and most have utilised their ISA's and SIPP facilities, I'd guess, so no personal tax worries involved.

Buying back a chunk of the equity to ostensibly boost EPS has always been a rather lame excuse for it in my book - shareholders know how best to look after their personal interests rather than the Co doing it for them and, anyway, if the group's successful, the eps will rise anyway...

The other reasons are for defending the Co. from a 'low ball' T/O attempt (which I recall was the inference, should it be required) or, perish the thought, merely enhancing any existing LTIPs for the BoD and other senior peeps - the latter not being very good PR really...

Just my take on this popular topic, fwiw - sasa.

Hi NewK - sentiment, as we all know, drives mkt prices, regardless of fundamentals, in the short run and for now, its pretty negative almost everywhere. Ergo, exasperation in these conditions is very understandable...

Equally though, most investors know that that human trait can turn 'on a sixpence' - often when prices have fallen too far deepening the value afforded and / or an event prompts the 'sea change' in perception.

As long as the fundamental case holds up for the duration (and it certainly does here, imv) then patience is all you need; a difficult discipline certainly but usually worthwhile ultimately...

That's my take, anyway, fwiw - sasa.

Agreed, NormaS - don't know what's the fuss about all of a sudden.

The WFT has only just come in this month and a good part of it can be offset by NS development allowances which Serica will be utilising to the max, as stated recently; whether RS amends the details or not, Serica is still raking in shed loads of cash in these conditions in contrast to many outfits now having higher debt servicing costs to contend with, unlike us.

The value here remains self evident; whether that'll be optimised by a T/O approach for us, post a successful Nth Eigg drilling outcome hopefully, or a long overdue acquisition by Serica, remains to be seen.

In the meantime, the one thing many seem short of now is patience - even some of the 'die - hard' LTHs on here seem to be wilting - try running the Nos for this year's likely outcome, even without Nth Eigg 'coming in' for us for encouragement, I'd say, which should reassure...

Blackrock significantly increasing their holding yesterday must be a positive, too, surely? - sasa.

Interesting this latest Board change; seems a more heavyweight NED is coming on board with 30 odd years with Total Energies - now where have I heard that name before? - sasa.

Good reminder there, NormaS...

It's easy to forget that mkt trends / swings are always the norm in this game and at the moment, stock selection and / or avoidance altogether, is particularly to the fore.

Bear mkts usually punish the over leveraged when demand subsides but Serica, amongst the very few, are devoid of such demerits, having no borrowings, an almost embarrassing and growing amount of cash in the bank with demand for their output still rising, as winter approaches to accentuate that squeeze.

Must be about the safest stock around in such conditions - sasa.

A sober assessment there of the short / medium term outlook for mkt sentiment generally, redeye, and the time requirement here...

Profits are invariably secured by peeps to offset losses incurred elsewhere in a bear market, so if one's not over invested here, look to the medium term for the considerable potential to be realised with this one and it does look considerable to me.

Ergo, 'Patience hath...' and all that, for now - sasa.

I agree with that, cowboy - some site staff will inevitably be required even in a 'hold' situation (contact points/ maintenance / site security, etc.,) so 17 in number doesn't surprise me at all - sasa.