Member Info for sasa43

the daily NAV calcs does anybody know? Haven't seen the usual valns. for a few days and couldn't find anything about this on their website after a cursory look.

Useful, of course, to see where we stand vis a vis daily prems or discounts applicable - sasa.

Hi NewK - I'm with you about CHAR being seriously worth looking at, at this stage of their development, as we've touched upon before - massive top quality gas find identified already, amidst a seemingly prolific licence area (lixus) with other promising acreage held offshore Morocco, too.

They need the funding to develop it right now and who has abundant cash and the expertise to assist here on both counts? No guesses who...and yes, I hold shs in CHAR, as well, so trying to be as objective as possible.

Given Serica's traditional caution about acquisitions at the right price, etc., CHAR's current mkt cap is only £180m at present, so a decent offer could comfortably be funded by them and once producing / selling their output into a pretty gas starved EU mkt in two years time, another 'transformational' deal, as good as BKR has been for them, could be secured, I reckon.

I've always considered Serica's careful approach to such things as a sound attribute but sharks need to keep swimming to stay alive, as the saying goes... sasa.

But my initial reaction, as exemplified by the sp reaction so far, is disappointing, fwiw...

Those 'hedging' / swaps I feared yesterday might be a problem have turned out to be a much bigger 'fly in the ointment' than anticipated - okay, they've stopped doing them since last July and they'll gradually run off over the next year or two but they've clearly crimped the 2021 outcome, unfortunately.

The divd boost also falls somewhat short of what they could have done (eps of 30p v 3p last time provides cover of 3.3 x so it should certainly be sustainable) but the only other immediate positive I can see is that cash accruals continue apace which, in the face of rising interest rates ahead, is clearly a major plus.

I've always maintained that 2022 should be their bumper year with 100% BKR revenues coming in / extra contributions from Rhum3 / Columbus etc., and especially so if North Eigg delivers to boost sentiment, of course, so the shs still warrant a 'good hold' at this juncture, imv.

After this underwhelming outcome for last year, though, the present setback in the sp is unfortunate but understandable for now, I guess - sasa.

Hi flex - holding shs in an ISA makes no difference on the IHT front. Once you've passed away, the ISA dies with you and the assets therein just form part of your estate for IHT assessment.

Most but not all AIM shs offer freedom from IHT if held for two or more years but you need to check whether Serica is one of the qualifiers if this concerns you. Enquiring of the HMRC in this regard, if you can't find anything on SQZ's website or Google about it might help, although the former don't seem to be too forthcoming in this regard, I've been told.

Failing that, a good IFA should know or HL might highlight it on their website? Personally, I still reckon the advantages of a main mkt listing for the company outweigh the personal IHT saving aspects for a holder, even if it qualifies, imv - sasa.

Hi NewK - "Q4 this year and Serica might be in negative EV territory" - quite possibly or very close to, the way their cash accruals are rapidly mounting up with everything going for them right now...

The only slight 'fly in the ointment' I can think of currently is the swaps position which QuintusC also referred to earlier but anyway, we'll know tomorrow morning how things stacked up last year and how they look for 2022 - so GL to all holders - sasa.

They must know of our 'great expectations' on several fronts with Thursday's Y/E figs. and, more importantly, their forecasts for 2022 when just about all the 'goodies' will be kicking in.

The most encouraging, imv, would be a decision to seek promotion to Division one - being on the main mkt brings so many additional benefits for minimal cost, not least, of course, much more exposure to Institutional involvement but that's just my take, fwiw - sasa.

Polar Capital probably manages their fund under keeping holdings below a certain % of the overall fund size, especially where AIM stocks are concerned.

Since the 7/ 3 / 22, the sp has risen some 28%, so maybe more trimming of this very successful holding for them is to be seen shortly, as you suspect, NewK, notwithstanding the 2021 results being released a week tomorrow - the sp is holding up well ahead of them which is encouraging....

Clearly, Serica has outgrown the need to be on AIM - hope ACW / MF have something to tell us about promotion onto the main mkt next week which would materially stimulate interest in us
and provide a further significant fillip to the sp - sasa.

Cheers, Maverick - have done so - sasa.

Have to agree with that, TDT - I'm surprised that the regulator, both here and in Canada, don't take them to task over this; after all, their lax attitude creates a false mkt over here fostering arbitrage at London's expense and it's not the first time this has happened.

If Pure is to get back on its feet after this debacle, the new BoD need to be more cognisant of dual listing mkt requirements as well as improving their mining ops. Both are urgently needed - sasa.

Thanks for relaying this, portal - let's hope there's indeed a good deal more to come - sasa.

Thanks for that update on Eigg, NewK - the seismics look quite good to my untrained eye, so I'd think a 50% + CoS would be a reasonable shout and given Serica's cautious approach to everything, I'd guess they must think the same.

At least they can chance their arm with it now, given their abundance of cash - costing around £40m or so from memory, so 100% of a commercial success or a cash deduction if a failure, as you say. Let's wish them luck ! - sasa

Interesting that investor presentation coming up after the results; might that imply something extra to crow about? - sasa.

A fortnight to go, then, before we know what's what? Must take a while to count all that cash, as you say, flexmw - like it! - sasa.

"He's a bit slow in getting on board" - agree with that, D220 but 'better late than never,' I guess...

I remember the 1973 oil crisis very well when the price of crude rocketed from $5 per bl to $20 per bl in pretty short order! The mkts had already been declining since May ' 72 but plummeted on that Saudi move which led to the sharpest fall in the FTSE 30 (equiv. to the FTSE 100 today) since 1929. The index fell 73% from May' 72 to Nov. '74 and I was in the middle of it in our office and on the trading floor - quite alarming at the time!

Needless to say, oil shares benefitted quite considerably and although much is different today, the same appreciation potential for those producing what the world wants / needs, keeps the likes of Serica, debt - free / cash rich, firmly in the spotlight for the duration, imv - sasa.

That's a fair assessment, Jimmy, if the yield curve on bonds inverts (long yields being less than short term yields) which it's close to doing currently.

This is about the most reliable recession indicator the mkt illustrates, with growth shs generally being more susceptible to a sharp decline than value orientated equities and amongst the latter, energy stocks, especially now in todays climate, should prove the most resilient.

Just my take on that, fwiw, so I'm happy to continue holding CHAR throughout - sasa.

Hi viable - you're clearly more familiar with his 'following' than me and that's fine.

As Maverick pointed out earlier, greater exposure overseas is obviously a positive for us but I wish he'd got more genned up on Serica before trying to analyse it; he was clearly out of his depth at this initial attempt and was rather clumsy... sasa.

Hi Maverick - good point, agreed...

However, I couldn't fathom what he was going on about and I, like all the lths on here, are very familiar with the situation, so how any 'newbie' could gather what he was trying to say would be quite remarkable; hopefully though, they'd have the gumption to look at Serica's website themselves, as he didn't even know the ticker for it! - sasa.

What an utterly pointless vid! "I don't know anything about this company" - that was plain to see, so why comment on something that was way beyond his understanding? Complete waste of airtime, unless it was an April fool's joke?

If so, that was late and he wouldn't comprehend that, either - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - Echo your thoughts / hopes on the outlook here, too...

The 50% Rhum purchase opportunity from the IOC is certainly a possibility if the US does relent on its sanctions against Iran (albeit to the chagrin of the Israelis / Saudis, etc.,) a notion I alluded to a month ago, too, as you have, which would be very convenient for Serica, of course, as the existing operator, assuming a deal could be concluded with them.

However, given ACW's and MF's reluctance to overpay for deals, especially now with prices so high, that might prove to be 'a bridge too far' for them, price - wise, despite the favourable position they're in with it. But you never know...

I like NewK's suggestion that they might want to consider the likes of Chariot; okay, they're not producing yet but they're sitting on an humongous gas find off Morocco (top quality gas, too, according to their latest RNS this week) and with other attractive targets within CHAR's large acreage there, Serica's abundant cash intake, could well be put to good use here?

Widening their scope outside domestic waters again might not be such a bad idea if the IOC don't oblige / North Eigg doesn't deliver in the event - just a useful option for them to consider in such circumstances, I'd have thought. And yes, like NewK, I'm in both, so I guess I'm biased, tbh...

However, Serica remains 'pregnant with possibilities' given where they are today, regardless, imv - sasa.

I think the Y/E figs. are due to be released on or about the 14th April, Johnny, if that helps - sasa