Member Info for sasa43

All O&G companies, especially the gas producers have got very lucky, obviously, this past year or so with prices so high; none of 'em saw this 'blessing' coming, though...

Clearly beneficial for all of them but for nobody else - sasa.

Soder, I have to say that your utter disdain for ACW / MF and especially the former's efforts, whether by luck or judgment, is quite extraordinary, given where Serica is today and it's buoyant sp. The success of an investment, or otherwise, is all that matters ultimately...

Can't imagine how you would react if you were sitting on a big loss! - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - echo that...

Like you, I've been in the mkts for yonks (probably too long, some would say) but one thing I've learnt over time is that, provided the fundamentals remain sound / the potential is supervised by competent management, patience is all that's generally required over time...

Although the numerous facilities surrounding the investment game have radically changed since I was on the floor of the LSE in the 60's, those underlying requirements remain sound.

Many peeps know this anyway but find it difficult to exercise the required discipline beyond the short / medium term which, unfortunately, often leads to them missing out on a really significant outcome - sad but true - sasa.

With respect Ralph, a share buy back scheme is the least productive way of beginning to utilise our huge cash pile and many on here have railed against it and rightly so, imv.

The BoD is only authorised to shrink the float by 10% anyway and our Y/E eps is set to balloon, regardless - sasa.

Hi RELLIM - Thanks - just trying to regain some balance here vis a vis the numerous frustrations focussing upon our excessive cash 'problem.'

It's a nice 'problem' to have, of course, especially now with no borrowings to service, either, as interest rates move higher and quite a few indebted firms will be looking upon our financial health with envy, I dare say, like AA, recently - we're obviously 'on the same page' here in that regard...

It does need to be gainfully employed at some point, though, as we all recognise and I hope our BoD has that very much in mind now, post Kistos, as the interims approach. We might just be in for a nice surprise or two, who knows? ATB - sasa.

Hi Jimmy - thanks very much for your calcs. re: a possible 'farm in' cost for 25% of the entire as things stand, with CHAR as the operator as you surmise - very helpful.

Serica could run to that with some £500m in the bank already and a likely Y/e figure of, perhaps, getting on for nearly twice that if gas prices remain so elevated by then as they are now.

Amongst several variables are obviously current gas price levels and their sustainability, or otherwise, looking further out which'll affect the running npv, of course and what discount a prospective 'farm in' partner might ascribe to that.

Put another way, how urgent is it for CHAR to get going with funding the drilling / development programme in the present climate? Understandably, pretty keen by all accounts...

As you'll know from your experience with Serica in the past, ACW and now MF are quite conservative in their approach to such things (inviting much criticism from their shareholders of late) and they might prefer to be the operator, too, if they're involved, given their greater experience; in which case, they might even consider a T/O of Chariot.

With the CPR now to hand but with several drilling results yet to be determined, I imagine they'd be pretty cautious in such an approach, perhaps offering, say, 1 : 6 at 400p today + 20p cash = 86p or a bit more in the hopes of closing without any competition arising of 1 : 5 + 20p to get to a nice round 100p ps.

Pure conjecture on my part, of course and probably quite fanciful, too, given your much higher valuation but one thing's for sure, both are still cheap, imv and Chariot especially so - ergo, more than happy to hold both in today's climate and thanks again - sasa.

Hi Jimmy - a while back you mentioned Serica as a possible 'farm in' partner for Anchois - fancy having a shot at what cost that might be for, say, 50% of Chariot's share?

Am a long time shareholder in Serica which now has an almost embarrassing amount of cash on its balance sheet and such a mutual deal would seem a good fit to me. Am also in Chariot, too, of course...

Your further views on it would be welcome - sasa.

and they should not only be a dramatic improvement on last year's H1, for obvious reasons but also point to a hugely successful Y/E outcome in prospect, so I'd suggest the critics of ACW / MF defer judgment until then.

The recent 'scare' of Kistos nearly getting hold of much of our cash to acquire us won't be lost on them, surely? They may not be the most adventurous BoD around but they're not stupid and with Rothschilds recently employed to advise them on their defence, I don't doubt that they would have sought their advice as to how best to utilise their growing cash pile, too.

Such suggestions could range from moving onto the main mkt / genuinely stepping up the M&A search / declaring a 'special divd' and / or significantly increasing the annual distribution (all probably after October's Nth Eigg outcome) which shouldn't do the sp any harm from here...

A 'farm in' on a very attractive prospect would be my preference rather than an outright acquisition at today's exceptionally high gas prices and the likes of Chariot spring to mind here being outside the UK but close enough to supply Europe's increasing demand for non - Russian gas imports - if successful, that should comfortably address the reserves anxiety mentioned.

As flexmw says, there could well be discussions already underway in the background for all we know with the clamour of 'do something with all that cash' from many posters being uppermost in their minds now.

'Patience hath...' and all that, is my take, fwiw - sasa.

What chance was that, then, jaytee, pray tell? Helping Kistos to acquire us with most of our own money?

C'mon, AA wouldn't have sanctioned such a bid as that for Kistos, on the terms he proffered for Serica - he nor us are that gullible - sasa.

Should be quite something to encourage the faint hearted, being half way through this bumper year for Serica with everything going for it.

At that time, it's quite possible the BoD will reference any pragmatic change in better utilising their huge cash balance, either in terms of a deal they've lined up and / or a 'one off' distribution to shareholders and with the Nth Eigg drilling result being pretty close, too.

Notwithstanding that outcome, if gas prices remain around todays much elevated levels, the H2 results should be even more impressive to conclude Serica's best year ever, by far.

Just a cheerful reminder post the Kistos diversion - sasa.

Succinctly put LuckyL - sasa.

Wouldn't disagree with that probability, kign re: overseas based entities but the UK registered' Hedgies' / PE energy trading arms and the trading desks of 'Big Oil' operators here who also retail the stuff could /should contribute more than paying just 'lip service' to it at this stage.

Disincentivising the upstream Nth Sea O&G developers / producers all the more is the best example of the Govt. 'shooting itself in the foot' again, if Labour and the Lib Dems were ever to get their economic ignorance onto the statute book.

Increasing our domestic fossil fuel production, prior to the 'green' alternatives gradually 'helping out' in any meaningful way, is the only option open to a rational administration, it seems to me.

Just my suggestion on this sore topic - any other ideas welcome, of course... sasa.

Agree the points made in your post, BaysilHope - if a further tax imposition on excessive profits generated by the unprecedented rise in O&G prices is at all necessary, it should be levied on the commodity traders who contribute nothing in developing our own energy production but merely deal in these scarce resources currently, with gay abandon.

A 50% CGT levy on them would be more justifiable in these rare circumstances and would, doubtless, ease the pressure on prices tightening at this critical time. The upstream O&G producers already pay a gross 65% tax and even allowing for the 90% relief on their domestic development projects, still pay twice the corpn tax rate levied on industry as a whole...

One solution for the Govt. might be to arrange with the major suppliers (BP, Shell and the like) to keep the present consumer cap in place and render to the Govt. an invoice for the losses they incur in doing that on a quarterly or a six monthly basis in exchange for a short dated, low coupon, gilt of, say, 3 or 5 year maturity or even a 'zero' equivalent which they can then add to their balance sheet as a 'cash equivalent' item. A sort of reverse 'QE' policy for the duration.

Such a scheme would aid the poorest in Society the most whilst giving the Govt. time to redeem such energy bonds in more stable conditions later on; by then economic prospects should look a good deal better than right now one hopes! - sasa.

Hi D220 - agreed; Evans - Pritchard often has a good take on things, so his view is generally worth taking note of... sasa.

The investment management business let the side down again and some rationalisation here looks overdue to put it mildly.

However, the port / shipping activities of the combined group held up reasonably well in the circumstances, given the difficult economic backdrop making for the mediocre outcome overall, imv.

If the continuing drag of the securities management side of the group could be addressed to improve their contribution to group profits (fewer holdings / better management expertise, etc.,) the outlook would be much enhanced, with the sp reflecting that, I'm sure...

As it is, the shares remain rather 'stranded', despite their overt cheapness on the aggregate asset front, still affording a 50% discount on that with the divd maintained...

More could be achieved if management took a proactive interest in resolving their 'weak link' as things stand, to get the sp up to nearer their true worth as they once were, as I say.

Just my take, fwiw - sasa.

Wow! - that's pretty frightening, flex...

If it prompts the Govt. to step up its WPT, which it might yet do, even if Liz Truss gets into No 10, they should impose CGT on the commodity traders, who do nothing to provide for our National energy requirements, unlike the producers and, to a lesser extent, those with retailing interests, too. They merely trade the stuff with gay abandon in these conditions...

Serica might well consider gingerly step up their hedging / swaps activities a bit more at these record levels but would the counter party be brave enough to take them on currently?

If it's at all practicable, they should get it right this time with an eye to the eventual price reversion to the norm, surely? - sasa.

Let's hope so, Jimmy - sasa.

That's roughly about 10% off the gross receipt - ample downside to cover any exchange rate risk over the quarter and /or cover the the admin. costs involved it seems - sasa.

'Morning Manuel - yes, that's how the payment should be transferred following a 'yes' vote, in normal circumstances, agreed but these times are anything but normal, as we all know.

Salvaging something from this parlous state of affairs now is the best we can hope for - if the vote is 'No' again, then the end will come that much quicker, seemingly - not what us VLTHs ever anticipated that's for sure! Keep well, too - sasa.

it seems to me but will she? I guess so, if this final vote on retrieving something from the wreckage that is Amur Minerals right now, is voted down again.

If shareholders vote 'Yes' to this, albeit ' fire sale' on the 24th however, she'll probably sit down for a while but then the question arises of whether the 'divd' of 1.8p will be paid out, as forecast, end Nov time as intended?

Getting cash out of Russia these days is increasingly difficult as we all know. Ergo, what will be the situation in three month's time vis a vis the Ukraine / Russian war - better or worse? A classic Hobson's choice for now, I'm afraid, so anybody's guess as what's best to do.

Have just seen RY's vid. It's clearly taken a heavy toll on him and it's aged him considerably which is sad to see; he clearly wants to get this over and done with, asap - sasa.