Member Info for Sageman

Jim the more you write the more vacuous you appear. The assay results will be pivotal but if they were to be good a placing would not be inevitable. Banks lend on assets and JV partners can be found. However, if the results were exceptional any placing should be at a good price. You are clearly another deramper and not a very good one! I hold 30m of these with a B/E of 0.12 and am happy to hold. In contrast you are a loser hoping the sp will fall so you can buy your £5 worth!

Dave, a big doh . It is still winter not Spring! I said demand would return in spring due to vaccines thus increasing demand earlier than expected and thus adding to the impact of production cuts. If oil goes up or even holds current price Tullow are home and hosed and SP will re-rate.

Just revisited the CMD presentation. What leaps off the page is that the co has undertaken some root and branch restructuring. It was much needed. They were dead at $20 per barrel and trying to survive expected low oil prices for some time. Those cuts make a huge difference. BUT oil has lept in price. This is a fixed cost business. Thus this is a geared play on oil. The sp does not react on a daily basis to oil price changes since they could easily fall. Markets did not expect global,vaccines this soon. They did not foresee demand for oil returning to normal in spring. If prices hold Tullow sp must rise.

I was wondering if currency is an issue. Oil is priced in $. Our SP is in £. We have large debts. What currency is the debt in? $ has been weakening vs £. Just a thought.

Wozzer some good points. I would also add that investment, as opposed to gambling requires discipline. So set some portfolio rules . In my case I invest the bulk in well diversified trackers / retail funds. I have a rule not to invest more than 2% in one company and not more than 1% in an Aim stock. If you are “ balls deep” you become emotional and make poor decisions. I like to follow a share for a while before investing. I will buy in bites. If I average down and the share falls further I do not buy more once I have my limit. Then rather than look at my B/E overall I am happy to look at each trade separately and sell when in profit on the trade. If the share falls againI can buy again. This strategy saved me a lot of money on banks and house builders in 2020! Good luck all

Petrodollar, I am happy to see this rising but please do not describe this as low risk. Oil exploration co, no income , in Mongolia, Aim. Well if that is low risk I am a monkeys uncle! IMHO very high risk but prospects of very high reward. GLA

Angry truckers. FTSE100 started 2020 at circa 7500. Due to trade deal it did not participate in any rally of note. It is due a re- rate. NHS target is that each person doing vaccines does 300 per day. Imagine a team of 10,000 and do the Maths. By Easter things will look very different. The sp reflects the negativity and is way over done but DYOR. GLA

Holly, when you buy an investment trust a key element should be any discount to NAV. The discount is all about sentiment. Here the NAV is 67p and the SP only 38p. A massive discount reflecting that the bad news is in the price. Dwell on COVID if you chose but 2021 is about global recovery and vaccines. My view has always been that sub 50p this share is a bargain but that is just my view and I respect that others have a different one- hence the current SP!

FWIW I have always believed that Lloyds has been the unwilling poster boy for the U.K. economy especially since the referendum. It has suffered more than most due to government policies and perceived economic frailties. Indeed FTSE100 has been completely unloved since the referendum with FTSE100 currently being on one of its biggest ever discounts to the wider financial markets. My expectation is that a Brexit deal will see uncertainty reduce and a rise in FTSE100 back to pre referendum levels and beyond. This will be additive for our poster boy. Also FWIW very heavy for me means I am 3% invested here. I normally have no more than 1% in a single stock so my 3% weighting reflects my very positive view for 2021.

Financial Armageddon didn’t happen. Furlough saved jobs and PPI is over. We have vaccines. The U.K. economy will grow and inflation will rise. The cure for inflation is interest rate rises. 2020 was a perfect storm to destroy the SP due to fear , no dividends and interest rate cuts. 2021 is the precise opposite. I am very heavy in Lloyds with a B/E of 36p. I don’t post often and making SP predictions is a recipe for making ones self look silly. I will simply say that I am expect 2021 to be a good one for holders here. GLA

Lyndon , sorry mate but Oil is priced in $. Thus oil is not going up in any currency. What was it you said Geeze, lol!

Alba , Amur and Thor are my 3 gambles for 2021. I hold equal amounts of all 3 and expect one to 10 bag. I just don’t know which one. Alba has already tripled since purchase so on the trade overall I am ahead. All very high risk all could tank. GLA

This for me is a long term investment. The Sp is mainly a reflection of sentiment whilst the mine itself is a constant and demand for EV’s continues to rise. Essentially the fundamentals improve in terms of demand for our product. The question is will we ever get to market?I have bought another 500,000 this morning. GLA

Lyndon, too simples my friend. Currency is a very big deal where matters of debt are concerned. The U.K. did not join the Euro. Our debt is in £ and we can print £. In contrast Greece joined € and can’t print €. If your debt is in £ and receive $ you can receive 10% more $ but if the $ devalues 30% vs £ you are worse off.

Hi Torn, you are right to focus on currency issues and your point is well made that Tullow is priced in £. However, the real issue affecting Tullow is debt and servicing it. A rising oil price is key but the real question is what currency are the debts in? If the debts are mainly in $ happy days!

Hi Geng, good call on Barclays. I have done energy via Guinness global energy and Financials via Polar financial capital. I prefer the diversification. I bought both Barclays and Lloyd’s too soon so only just in profit. My best one has been trading Standard Life but like most I have some real bottom draw dogs that I hope still might come good. I don’t see Amur as a dog just a slow burner.

The bulk of my money is in boring well diversified funds some passive trackers, some managed funds. I have 10% that I play with in individual stocks. Some win , some lose but overall the portfolio gains and I have some fun in the process. It’s my way and suits me but each to their own . Normally when you lose it is through a combination of poor research and bad timing exacerbated by impatience. I have a B/e of 35p on Lloyd’s. A dog at 24p but at 38p it now looks a sound investment. Hopefully the same will apply here but much higher risk so hopefully much higher rewards. GLA

Amurisagogo, I don’t think that there is anything to be gained by speculation as to the size of my portfolio but I confirm that Amur remains under my 1% maximum. The point I was making is that I am not over exposed and therefore can be dispassionate whereas others get in too deep. They buy, it falls, they buy more, it falls. Suddenly they are 50% in and can’t sleep and dare not tell the Mrs! Been there, done that and learned my lesson. Luckily I was younger then and playing with less albeit the money was important at the time.

Just bought 500,000 at 1.77p. My lowest purchase price. Very happy to hold.

The stock market is a mechanism for transferring money from the impatient to the patient, or so I am told. The RNS of 25/11 heralds an unwelcome delay but does not alter the prospects for the company. The investment case has not been materially impaired. For my part I will be topping up. I never hold more than 1% of my portfolio in any aim stock and can be fairly detached as opposed to the balls deep brigade. My 3 gambles for 2022 are Amur, Alba and Thor. All of which can 10 bag. I hold equal weight in all 3 and just need one to come good. All IMHO. GLA. DYOR