Member Info for Sageman

Major factors regarding RBL and debt servicing are level of debt, production and Poo. We saw in January the cut in production from 75000 bond to 60,000 - 66,000 ouch. But poo is riding to the rescue. The forecast was $45 in November, $50 in January. Yes current price nearly $59 but RBL depends on long term prices. No one has mentioned the futures market. Oil now above $50 for whole year. I can’t find Brent but Wti which is normally lower than Brent is above $55 until July and above $53 all year. It is the futures market that will allow higher than a $50 poo being used in assumptions. Tullow is a geared play on oil .

The level of research shown by some posters is breathtaking. The reason the price dropped was delay to RBL coupled with a forecast cut in production of up to 20% with only a $5 increase forecast from CMD to $50. This drop is 100% to be expected. Previous values when oil was $20 were mitigated by hedging and forecasts. Note poo could have fallen at a critical time whilst RBL is being agreed. The reason for the rise? Very simple large oil price rise. This drops on the bottom line and in an instant cancels out the drop in production. All the rest of the stuff here about shorting is delusional fantasy in terms of current sp impact.

Torn - you are a joke. I have just read your posts. So transparent! You always win you say. Well good luck with your planned 24p purchase, lol! In contrast I was buying whilst you were selling....

The sp fell because we cut production from 75,000 to 60,000-66,000 with only a 5p increase in oil price expectations from 45p to 50p. It is rising because poo has smashed through those levels and has more than offset the impact of falling production. Basically Poo is digging Tullow out of a hole day by day.

A bit of research shows CMD oil 75,000 BOPD at $45. Now 60000-66,000 BOPD but poo is north of $55 and north of the $50 guidance for 2021 given earlier in January. The reduction in oil production is more than offset by the increase in poo. The oil price is rescuing this company day by day. I am very happy with my holdings and believe that with each day that passes the RBL position improves.

Harry what a load of carp. Suggest you do some research. The RNS’s show scenarios based on various POO. We are above those prices already....DYOR!

Trifle NAV is based on a number of things. Also the U.K. does not start and finish within the M25. House prices in UKPLC as a whole are very buoyant.

God this board is full of carp! Back in the real world the NAV of LLoyds is close to 70p. Sentiment is transient but overtime the underlying value is critical. We are profitable, eventually interest rates will rise and dividends will be restored. Timescales are probably less than 3 years. You can get circa 1% on your capital in cash over 3 years. If it takes 3 years for LLoyds to hit NAV that is a 100% return. LLoyds won’t go bust so I am happy with my 35p B/E. It’s called research and actual investment. Some people here should try it as opposed to using this board to vent their political spleen.

Singe it is you have lost the plot. Our issues are U.K. variant and population density. Our vaccine record is excellent. The discussion here was to do with vaccines- doh!

Shift, love it. Best post of yours I have read.

Timmy do you know what going long means?

Bit of luck, sounds like we both had a similar experience. Back in those days the money I was investing was small beer compared to now. Like you I was young then too. But at the time it was money that was hard earned and important. Lessons learned the hard way are seldom forgotten. I see comments of people on these boards and it makes me wince since I know what their fate will be but most people seem determined to only learn from their own mistakes! Good luck all

Timmy, sadly what I said was wasted on you. I wish you luck. But that is a saying that a fool and their money are soon parted and mr market takes no prisoners and has a wonderful habit of destroying both wealth and egos. I have been investing since the 80’s and learned the hard way. Anyone else remember Penny share guide? , lol!

Timmy, I read your post with utter dismay. If you made money then take the money and run. You are playing a dangerous game confusing a fruit machine with investment. The professionals will eat you alive over time. Your best chance of making a profit is to diversify, do some proper research , buy on dips and have an investment time horizon longer than a day! The regulator believes that less than 5 years is short term....

The bears will play but long term research is king. POO at $20 Tullow = major problems. POO at $55 Tullow = home and hosed. Everyday at current POO level is a day above the level expected . Check out the RNS’s last year. I have topped up on each of the last 3 days. A little nibble each time. Currently breaking even on the 3 purchases. Very happy to get this chance to buy.

I have a low B/e here and had sold some at 34. I bought them back today at 31.09. Looking forward to 2row

GKB47 much of what you say is true....WHICH IS WHY THE MCAP IS ONLY £9M. We get that. But the mcap takes little account of the future prospects. If you think the company has no prospects ship out but you cut a pretty sad figure refusing to move on haunted by the past. I have modest hopes ( circa 4p) compared to many. At present this is a dog share for me but I can see positives.

So glad I sold the bulk of my UDOG shares at 0.20 to buy Alba at between 0.11 & 0.15 - just wish I had sold the lot and never trusted SS. “ The train is leaving the station” , “ assets of national significance “. The guy is a liar , he makes my blood boil. I wish I could slap him. He owns no shares and pays himself a fortune.....one word ....despicable.

Jim, I just heard on the radio that there has been a car accident and someone has died. The police have issued a statement saying that the person was extremely ugly and from their tight grip on the wheel a ******. They also said that there was a book on the passenger seat called economics for idiots and fantasists. I’ve been worried about you ever since please post again so that I know you are all right.

As I said each post more vacuous!