Member Info for Sageman

Benny, your calcs were not inaccurate..actually conservative. I apologise for unintentionally making this disclosure as it does not add anything to the debate. The point was around risk and overall exposure as a % not actual money employed. I wish you well and hope that 88E makes you a handsome profit.

Benny I had not expected people to sit down and try to calculate my total portfolio holdings. They are irrelevant. The important part is the %age of portfolio and overall exposure to any one stock. I can confirm however, that 88e has never been more than a tiny part of my holdings and that allows me to take a fairly balanced relaxed view. Good luck all.

Benny, The 1% discipline applies to the purchase only. I would be delighted if a share went up by a factor of 30!. But yes to answer your question I had 10m and now have 1.5m so I have sold several. I read these boards with horror, The balls deep brigade literally bet the farm and risk their marriages. They view the stockmarket as a casino with zero concept of "investing" and zero intention to research. The bulk of my money is in boring well diversified retail funds. I only "play" with 10% of my portfolio. It means I have fun but sleep at night.

Jaytem, you clearly have a somewhat limited knowledge of investing. People here are not "bottling it" by taking profits they are risk managing their holdings. Many invested and the share dropped so they averaged down. The intention then is to sell into the rise and progressively de-risk with an overall aim of making money. The ultimate situation is binary - commercial drill = 5p plus , duster = under 1p with lots of fluctuations to enable buys and sells. At present I expect a rise tomorrow but if news leaks of disappointing shows then expect a big sell off. I have progressively sold into an increasingly higher share price as have many others. I retain 1.5m and am happy with my position with a 0.08p B/E. GLA

xwave10 , I have a rule not to hold more than 1% of my portfolio in an Aim stock but sadly had to increase this in order to average down. I still kept it to under 2%! The actual money involved is irrelevant. Dave Beckham has over £100m if he did the same he would have had circa £2m invested. Portfolio management follows the same basic principles irrespective of the money involved. The one constaint is liquidity.

eeenf converted price is now circa 2.90 and rising. In the absence of leaks (someone always knows) Thurday will be very interesting as the last trading day before Easter and wireline results due immediately after easter. Stick or twist? I have already derisked but hold plenty. I still do not know what I would do if it was 4p on Thursday around 3.30pm.

From holding circa 10m shares at an average of just over 2p and given up all reasonable hope of seeing a profit I now hold 1.5m at an average 0.08p. At last I am derisked and have a decent paper profit. I am sure that there are many LTH in a similar boat. Duster or gusher the market never changes ..buy the rumour, sell the fact. Sell the rumour , buy the fact. At the moment the market is buying it and long may it continue to do so with a gusher leading to additional gains.

Many LTH invested , then invested more to average down thus meaning that they invested more than they originally intended. I am one such person and now find myself in profit and able to rebalance the holding. I have sold 2/3rds and am happy to let the balance roll for now. If this does not flow commercially it will tank. Investing is not just gambling. People who have sold some / taken profits are not fools. They are investors.

Why work, says it all! Do you think this is cash or an oil company? Doh. Rules on ISA’s are easy to look up. No this can’t be held in a cash ISA.

US close 1.71.

1.69 now if you convert current US price to £

And U-DOG hits another all time low today as markets express their confidence in SS, AKA Billy no shares the great diluter and destroyer of wealth. Even with oil back over $60 per barrel no one wants to invest in anything to do with SS - especially SS even at these levels!

Lots of vacuous posts by people who believe that are at a casino! Virtually zero mentions of market cap, NPV of oil, potential discoveries at Merlin and Harrier, the farm out etc. Reason for no mention is simple- no research! Sentiment is illogical so the SP is capable of massive gyrations. But looking at shares in issue, potential oil discovery and market cap gives a more sensible compass. Those talking about £1 short term are clearly ramping shamelessly. But the bulls are charging and caution is being abandoned. For me 1-3p pre drill result is where I expect the share to trade but I guess in this illogical market even 5p is possible, who knows?

Happy, I told you what would happen last week to the sp due to forced buying as a result of FTSE250 entry. Shorting at this time is foolish and expensive as you are finding. Once the buying spree is over then it’s back to fundamental analysis etc but for now there is only one game in town “ follow the money”.

Papa, the position with Tullow is both rare and unexpected. A rapid rise and then entry to FTSE250 not at the normal time. Therefore no opportunity for the institutions to position themselves. Whilst SXX eventually turned sour they experienced the identical situation. The sp went from circa 22 to circa 32 driven by forced buyers.

Android.....The money is from the FTSE250 passive trackers. without wanting to be rude it should be perfectly obvious that companies shorting are not trackerfunds!

Great maths guys...yawn! Here is the real maths driving the sp currently. As a result of entering the FTSE250 unexpectedly early the 250 passive trackers and 250 managed funds are caught short of stock. They only found on on the 9th that Tullow would be in the 250 on the 12th. Given that the 250 index is a weighted average and we are circa 0.2-0.25% of it they need to spend £120m plus buying shares = north of 200m shares. Even a zombie PI with little understanding of markets can see that Tullow volume has been well below this. It follows that the instructions are forced buyers and this buying will continue. I will be watching share volumes and in the meantime expect the sp to reach between 75-80p ( allowing for a 50% rise from 250 announcement). Arguments about debt are of interest on another day but for now just watch poo, sp and shares traded. GLA..enjoy the next few weeks.

Stanley...read the RNS. It said the 12th!

I read posts here " I don't understand why Tullow is rising when my other oil stocks are falling". My answer is FTSE250 entry ...DOH!

People clearly just do not get it. We are in the FTSE250 , per the RNS. It happened at short notice rather than at the normal review. Therefore institutions have been caught short. The trackers have no option but to buy. They need to buy circa £120 million which is over 200m shares. This simple fact transcends all other sp moving factors at this stage. The buying will be incessant until they have bought the requisite amount. I am not ramping this is just how it works!