Member Info for Sageman

Happy, Your analysis misses one small but very costly detail. We just joined the FTSE250. To be clear it means that trackers ( funds that passively track the index irrespective of any company analysis) are forced buyers. I did a bit of maths. If Tullow are circa 0.2% of the index and FTSE250 trackers have circa £6bn then they need to buy circa £120 million of stock. On top of that there are managed FTSE250 funds who may decide to buy. There is an old saying "follow the money". The last company I spotted in this situation rose 50% once the listing was announced. Sorry Happy but you got this one very wrong!!

Jeffrey you are wrong - DYOR! Tullow will be circa no 210 in the FTSE250. The passive trackers have no choice but to buy. FTSE250 managed funds will also buy. If you do some research you will see that these funds have AUM of £billions. In the real world when there are more buyers than sellers the sp risers. As you say DYOR or should I say do Some research!

Once in FTSE250 we will get both active and passive institutional buying. Sadly our friend “ Happy” does not understand that when you get buyers the price risers. Some of the active 250 managed funds will have already started to buy but the trackers must track the index. Trackers try to track as accurately as possible so it is reasonable that they will buy from tomorrow.

We should receive another $165k from NRR in early April. Helps to top up the cash and means we shouldn’t need dilution just to keep the lights on. In the meantime the wheels continue to grind very slowly....

I have been here since 2017. The mine itself is a gem, the resource undeniable but the management inept. Sentiment here is dire so decided to pick up another 500,000 for my bottom drawer. The need for nickel is growing exponentially ,at some stage this will happen and I am very patient.

It is clear from the RNS that Tullow was a basket case rescued by a rapid acceleration in POO. That is why Odey shorted. Tough luck Odey we got lucky! FTSE250 entry is massive news. We now have a pile of passive trackers who have no choice but to buy. Institutions who are forced buyers - love it. We also have managed FTSE100 funds who can buy. If oil stays strong and management delivers the future is very bright.

Hi Ozzy, I don't post here often but my posting history is visible to all. You can see when I invested and that initially I was supportive of management and SS. I still hold shares and would be very happy if SS turns it round, I have just lost all reasonable hope.

D.O.Y I am lucky that I never invest more than 1% of my portfolio in an Aim share initially and never more than 2% (allowing for averaging down). It has saved me on U-DOG. I also sold the bulk of my U-dog shares at circa 0.22 and moved over to Alba ( it is in my posting history). Irrespective of the actual £'s involved (£1000 to you and I is 50 pence to David Beckham) the actions of SS leave much to be desired. I am a big boy and accept losses. What I find annoying here is that SS lied. If someone says the odds are 10% you bet one way. At 40% you bet another. SS led us to believe that whilst U-DOG was not 100% guaranteed it had a very high probability in terms of success. I invested expecting a high probability ( and invested accordingly) whereas if SS had said the odds were 25% I may still have invested but maybe a quarter of the amount. That is what annoys me most, the misrepresentation of risk.

Ozzy , you have never said anything about me. No worries mate.

Ozzy, I am no fantasist. I trusted the walking C U next Tuesday called Sanderson. I bought in at 1.8. I worked my magic through trading and got my average down to 1.3. If I felt that I could get SS in a court room for perjury I would. Fortunately I am widely diversified and my portfolio has made large gains elsewhere but I am extremely angry. Sanderson has lied and mismanaged at a level that transcends incompetence. If I ever met him he would be left in no doubt as to my views. He sees PI's as a source of free money. People to dupe . There is no interest to pay. Simply spin them a plausible story and get them to fund the next commercial disaster. All the time the despicable Sanderson smugly smiles and collects his inflated salary. I am literally fuming and Tymers is equally as despicable.

Stuart if you think about it a hedge fund short selling into a rise is the same as you buying on a dip. It gives them a higher B/E. The issue would be if they were overly exposed but most of these funds eg Odey have hundreds of millions . If Odey lost £4m it would be less than 1% of his fund. Good to see this rising especially as I put the Mrs in it!

Lots of comments here but most reflecting that they just skimmed the headlines. A heads up. Try reading the bit about impairment provisions. Then read the NWG results and Barclays. Then consider the reason for reduced profits = mainly bad debt provisions. Then consider that if those debts don’t materialise what would happen. Lastly do some proper research!

Usual drivel on this board today! The big deal in the Nat West results is the comment that they made x billion provision for bad debts but have seen very few. The relevance is that if the debts don't materialise then the provision isn't required....I think you may find this has massive future potential impact for Lloyds given the level of their bad debt provisions. I would say DYOR but I will change it to Do Some research!

People always search for negatives. However, it is material that the price of gas has risen sharply this year as has the futures prices. The relevance of the latter is that this can be used to show debt serviceability. It’s a bit like with Tullow oil Poo at $45 is very different to $65 because the $20 is pure profit. I am hopeful that the delays are being used to take advantage of the improving situation. Time will tell.

I am very happy that the sp is going up but wish people would stop posting jibberish. Odey runs a fund a fund of over £400m. Today’s rise cost him 0.2%. He probably made the money back elsewhere and would have few worries. Small beer to a large fund. What is odd is that shorters have been slow to reduce their positions given the increase in poo futures.

Scot, I guess no one told you that the Fed can’t go bust. All US debts are in $. The Fed prints $! The U.K. is in a similar situation.

Gusto to close a short you have to buy the stock .This increases the sp it doesn’t reduce it.

Mike with all due respect in the last month alone we have had a trading range of circa 10p with a low of circa 25p . When I went to school 10/25 was 40%- and you call that flat?! Seriously.

If that is the case Mike Odey has little to worry about! But the shorters are NOT in control. They are the tail. The tail is not the dog. This is NOT GameStop where according to Moneyweek 140% of the company was shorted. This is Tullow with circa 7.5% shorted. I reiterate this is about a debt pile, an RBL and POO combined with potential production. I have cut my holdings to 150,000 pure profit and am waiting for what I believe will be a positive RBL. I believe that the rights issue bullet has been dodged and even if it is required it would now be modest ...time will tell. FWIW I believe shorting should be banned.

My point is that Odey has a £400m fund and holds circa £7m of shorts here. If the sp doubled he would lose circa 1.5% of his fund value. An irritation but he would hardly be having sleepless nights especially since he would sell out well before that. I dislike shorters but they represent a minority with over 90% of the shares being held long. Personally I think that the actions of the 90% are more relevant.