Member Info for Sageman

Markets tend to buy the rumour sell the fact or sell the rumour buy the fact. In this case they did the former and the SP shot up. The news was not bad but profit taking has occurred. I sold half and now have a B/E of 11.5p. With strong oil prices we should move higher in the coming weeks but shorts may take us lower first. I will buy again on dips. GLA

The way to average down here is not to buy more but to sell some and buy them back cheaper. The SP keeps hitting new lows so you get lots of opportunities. Anyone trying to "invest" has lost money because the SP is at a new low. Only traders are making money. If you add to your holdings you just increase your exposure. I sold over half of mine a few months ago over 0.2 - wish I had sold the lot! Anyone who has bought and held for a year is circa 90% down.

One word UDOG!

SS the great diluter and destroyer of wealth at the helm. Who could want more?

Rat , whilst studying TS Elliot I remember reading that his poetry was intriguing due to an absence of connecting matter. Meaning that essentially you could read almost anything in to it. In contrast to you I have not seen a detailed cash flow analysis because the company have not issued one! Lucan said in an interview that he had cut costs very substantially but gave no breakdown. In my world I read RNS statements , in your world you fabricate “facts” attach a negative spin and then state them as truisms. The November 4th RNS says that they are looking for debt funding and that potential creditors are very impressed by the quality of their assets. This may be rubbish and your conjecture may be the truth but for now I will trust the RNS.

Rat, do not even go there regarding my qualifications! You refer to your calculations but conveniently don’t disclose them. All smoke , mirrors and inuendo

Price of gas now double what it was in the summer at 2.8....hmmm

Rat when gas tanked your arguments held water. However, as each week passes gas goes up and production gets nearer. On top of that we have a guaranteed buyer of all our gas. Yes we need £12m but not all at once and not tomorrow. A deal / deals will happen here .

Rat did you read the RNS of 23/9 and 4/11? The company did a placing and believe that they can get the balance via loans secured against assets. In fact they are very positive about their ability to do this per the November RNS. I have tried to explain how the futures market can be used to help give a net present Value for some gas sales in 2021 against which lenders will forward finance but you reject all . You just know they they will run out of money “now”!

The whole point of the futures market was to enable producers of commodities to secure a known price for their goods so that they could plan and budget. Silly me you thought it was just so that people like you could make money shorting!

Rat, you say they need money, “NOW”. You assume that all this money must come from a large placing because according to you they are way behind their own schedule. You assume that they have no money. You assume that despite the fact they have a guaranteed buyer that the banks will not lend them ANY money. You assume that there is no ability for them to forward sell any of their production. You clearly have detailed knowledge not known to the markets,lol. Oil companies use the futures markets on a frequent basis. You assume that Shell and Angus won’t communicate. You assume that Shell can’t go to the futures market and secure a forward price that enables them to give Angus a fixed price. In short you assume much and know little, doh!

Mr Nation the RNS , August from memory

Rat only a fool would sell all they produce in the futures market. But I have many farmers who use the markets to guarantee a set price for part of their harvest. It allows them to plan forward knowing that they will get a fixed return on some of their produce rather than take pot luck with the price at harvest time. It may be that the shell deal precludes Angus from taking advantage of this but the principle point is that once in production with a guaranteed buyer you can get loans against future sales. Thus there would be less need for placing etc. The critical thing is price of gas and timescales. You deliberately play down any price and lengthen the timescales to suit your shorting agenda.

Weald, with respect the rat has managed to write hundreds of posts with content enough for about 3! The same stuff rehashed time and time again. The Mcap says it all. Angus has been extremely badly run in the past not helped by UDOG and commodity prices tanking. The new management are going a different way. If they fail at Saltfleetby they are rubbish but for now it’s game on. Do I see 10p and £1 party - NO! However, with luck 2-4p which would get me out of here in profit. Continually kicking Angus and it’s management is of no help.

Happy? I don’t think you are- just a shorter. Markets tend to do one of 2 things. Buy the rumour sell the fact or sell the rumour buy the fact. We have had a strong run so it seems like markets are doing the former at this time but there is plenty of the presentation to come. Irrespective of short term price action I think that with rising oil prices Tullow is well placed for recovery. GLA

Luck did you take into account that a significant amount of production is hedged? Then did you re run the numbers to reflect $5 per barrel increases? Thought not! You are just a shorter focused solely on negativity.

Hey Luckcounts, you are out of luck mate. SP is rising and your shorts are burning. Love it

Does any one know what time tomorrow we will hear from the CMD?

I sold a third at 33p. Now holding 200,000 with a B/E of 11.5p. I am now happy to see what tomorrow brings. GLA

Buy the rumour, sell the fact. Sell the rumour buy the fact. Markets tend to one or the other. I hope to see this at 32 tomorrow at which stage I will sell one third. GLA

Garrard makes sense given U.K. royal links etc. Very top end and niche. Limited quantity would rule out Cartier and Tiffany’s unless production really ramps up.