Member Info for Sageman

I think that some of the posts here about Odey are beyond ridiculous. The fund has more than £400m. He has a short of less than 2% of our co. We have total shorts well under 10% of co value. His short position has probably made him shed loads over time given the falls we have had. The big deal here is poo, debt and RBL. Shorts are just a side show.

Jubilee when are you going to read the RNS. If we hadn’t sold Uganda we would not have been a going concern in a few months time. It is in black and white in the half year report! The creditors would have ripped us to bits.

I said earlier that the RBL was a close run thing but that Oil was digging us out. Odey clearly thought we were short and would need a rights issue. This sale removes that threat IMHO. RBL should now be nailed on.

The RBL focuses on the 18 month position. People here focus on the spot price of oil. The lenders are looking beyond that. In contrast I have been looking at futures prices. These are now north of $55 throat 2021. It is this that will convince the creditors of sustainability. The situation has changed dramatically in the last month. Also we wrote down our reserves fairly heavily to reflect $60 per barrel long term average. The oil price recovery makes this more robust.

I think you will find that Odey is sitting in profit on his Tullow positions and will have stop losses in place. He is looking at the RBL and the 18 month funding , well aware of the debts to be repaid next April. He clearly expects a rights issue and with his stops in place would expect to close out well in place here. So suicidal? I don’t think so! My view is that POO has saved the day but it will be a close run thing.

After reading some vacuous posts over the weekend I revisited the 1/2 yearly results published in September and reread the text regarding low case / base case and the sale of the Ugandan assets. It reaffirms that the company had no choice but to sell. It also reaffirms my view that the increase in the oil price has essentially saved the company from being savaged by its creditors. The increase in the bond price reflects this. I don’t think we will ever be told the truth but this was a close shave.

Bull, I can’t take undue credit. I have a B/E of 19.75. Thus up circa 50% and up circa 10p per share. My B/E is not 10p. I did buy my first tranche sub 10p but that was gambling and small beer. GLA oil currently holding up well. Just watched a very bullish oil report on CNBC looking for $65-$70 in the next few months. Now that would be very nice indeed...

Bull it depends on what you mean in terms of return for shareholders. I am looking for the sp to rise as opposed to a dividend. Tullow has already given me a 50% return ( 10p a share) on 400,000 shares. I have no view on the oil price moving forwards but was always confident that it would return to over $50 and it was on that basis that I 1st invested last year. At 40p I will sell 1/2 and enjoy the free ride.

The difference is that when the sp was under 10p it was there for a reason and fully, if not over , valued. If oil reaches $80 this is an amazing buy with £1 easily achievable. The current sp with a decent RBL and no rights issue and $60 per barrel is too low IMHO. We await RBL but my B/E is 19.75 so I am very relaxed. GLA

Hmm Bull I guess you have never worked in finance? The critical thing now is the RBL. Lenders look hard at business models and cash flow. They are hard nosed and don’t like being bloody nosed. They will look at everything but oil 20% above forecast is critical as is futures prices. Everything includes resultant impact on value of assets and reserves. The rising oil price is rescuing a company that got fat and complacent with oil at $100 per barrel and were dead in the water.

Hey Mike share up over 20% since 1st Feb. I would say that 20% in a week just about counts as “ a head of steam” when backed by rises in the underlying commodity!

Steward your calculations are correct. Also you have done them on 60,000 BOPD ( which is bottom of the 60-66 range quoted). Further I refer to slide 7 of CMD presentation. Production shows as back circa 75,000 BOPD for 2022 onwards. I would say DYOR but actually I will rephrase it to do SOME research where certain posters here are concerned. The bond market recovery price tells you all you need to know.

GameStop had 140% shorts at one stage. Source Moneyweek 5th February p20.

What a load of tosh this am. Suggest you read an RNS which tells you BOPD and free cashflow. Then work it out at $60 per barrel instead of $50. Also stop reading red top newspapers as your basis for financial knowledge. In the U.K. we do not have naked shorting. Less than 10% is shorted. Hardly a stampede not like in the US where 140% of Gamestop was shorted. Oil rises = creditors happy= decent RBL = higher SP. SIMPLES!

Jubilee, interesting conclusions none of which are logical! Working in finance has nothing to do with virtue but it does give an area of expertise. Similarly listening to those who are experts in their field and respecting their views does not make me an expert. I have made plenty of mistakes one of them being to liaise with you. You have issued the same post endlessly all week . We have read your view many times. Do you have anything new to add? For my part I learn from my errors and will never respond to you again.

Jubilee actually I am not an expert virologist but I have clients who are doctors and also pharmacists. I get sent unencrypted material from drs net etc. I work in finance and have done for nearly 40 years. I listen a lot. In contrast you are an empty vessel that talks a lot seemingly unaware of the embarrassment you bring upon yourself.

Jubilee I have read your posts but feel that you are in need of some medical education as well as financial. Firstly you said that the vaccines would be accelerated and they have. BUT you forget that the virus can mutate. What would happen if a highly contagious version of the virus appeared that was vaccine resistant. This remains something feared by both politicians and pharmacists. The impact would be more lockdowns and lower oil price. When it comes to money lenders want certainty not fragile hopes. Had oil tanked and we hadn’t sold we would be in a right mess. As it is with 20/20 hindsight the sale may not have been necessary but we are where we are and need to move on.

Bond = Bopd!

A bit of maths. 65,000 bond. Oil increase = $13 . Additional income = circa $300 million. This is the approx increase to revenues that will be received this year above projections at CMD should oil sustain $58. In practice less due to the fact that some is hedged but even half that number is significant.

Steward thanks for your point about the production cut being within the CMD presentation. After a long trawl I saw it on one of the bar graphs on slide 7. It is not mentioned nor referred to anywhere else and I had totally overlooked it. I suspect most other investors had too hence the reaction when it was highlighted in January. In contrast the RBL lenders would be 100% aware. This means that the oil price is now nearly 30% the numbers they were previously looking at.