Member Info for RS2002

Ask yourself this:

1. Do schools have classrooms or canteens with children socially distanced? Wearing masks in classrooms?
2. Have many workplaces returned to the office/normal working practices?
3. Has the vaccine drive sufficiently mitigated the most at risk groups? Those over the age of 55 years old?
4. What is the peak demographic for cinemas? Those who sit for 1.5-2 hours on average to watch a movie? 12-24 year olds? Where do they register in the Covid risk scale? What about the fact that 88% of all cinema audiences are UNDER the age of 55 years old? They represent <2% of all covid hospitalisations

The fact is FUD is about and cinemas are a welcome refuge for the peak demographic who don't want date nights or evenings with their friends under the eye of their parents. They will always be a welcome respite for an evening or afternoon out with family, couples or individuals wanting to escape the home. They drive footfall to ancillary places of congregation too like restaurants and cafes.

These argument on cases just don't stack-up.

Why? Because for the majority its back to usual.

I have posted this before, but for the benefit of any lurkers, Cineworld was facing ruin back in October 2020.
The share price dropped to 17p when there were immediate liquidity concerns.

Many sat on the side lines, however, many including myself were brave enough to gobble up the drop.

The company soon after, issued an update that liquidity was addressed and believed the box office would recover.

The timeline of previous share price correction as a follows:

October 2020 = 17p
November 2020 = 66p (388% increase)
December 2020 = 72p (423% increase)
January 2021 = 88p (517% increase)
February 2021 = 104p (611% increase)

Now when you consider that the current situation is a judgement has been won in favour of Cineplex for £700m, this being contested and analysts believe this could drag on through litigation for YEARS.

I can see the bottom feeders out trying to push FUD, ultimately it comes down to investors to consider the risks of an investment and either take a stake, hold or sell.

Personally, I bought in on Wednesday as I knew the share price was oversold.

I await more positive news on Spiderman to surface where I fully expect this share price to re-rate to 40s and then once more news surfaces for it to re-rate significantly.

That may have been applicable to legacy retail, but you cannot deny Boohoo have captured the market and a current demographic who are very accustom to digital and influencers. Their brand is too well established to fade way into obscurity.

Just bought in at 100p - what an absolute steal.

This will be 400p, next year - not often you come across such obvious 4 baggers.

Good luck, all even those waiting for a further dip.

It was inevitable that the shorts would close.

- No immediate liquidity concerns
- Appeal in progress which some analysts say could take YEARS
- Box office set for a rapid recovery
- Spider-man mania with the first of the Phase 4 MCU movies lining up an entirely new multiverse phase and more lucrative movies to come
- 2022 packed with movies with big studios such as Sony, Disney, WB, Universal all committed to respect the theatrical window after trialling the day date release approach and suffering piracy and lost revenue

I suspect it will be the amateur shorts left open, left holding the bag as this re-rates.

Good job, Bonkers.

I'm glad you ask the question:

How do they anticipate raising funds to pay for the judgment? Any appeal loss would need to have an action plan in place in case of a worst scenario?

I would like to see a statement from Cineworld outlining that they have covered the worst case scenario and lined up additional lending, perhaps a convertible debenture to satisfy this payment at the worst.

That said, I am also mindful that they will need to be delicate with their communication, to suggest funds are available could counter their argument as part of the appeal.

I believe this appeal will take a while to see through and the litigation will be on-going for some time, enough time to see a fully box office recovery by Q1/Q2 2022? Yes, I believe so.

For now, we will await the update, but the important message from the RNS is no monies are being parted during the appeal process and I remain confident we will see similar bullish performance to that of October 2021 if Spiderman's first box office day (58% higher than "No Time to Die") is anything to go by.

I would hand you a tissue to wipe the egg off your face, dreamachine, but I suspect there will be more on it, tomorrow.

Incredible!

On a week-day no less.

"By comparison, Universal’s No Time To Die took £4.8m on its opening day in the territory, so Spider-Man: No Way Home is 58% ahead"

dreamachine, I told you yesterday was your chance for late 20s.

The news has digested and the market has seen the sell off was over-sold.

Tomorrow Spider-man mania in the US is with us - do you want to hazard a guess how the share price will react?

Waiting for 100p

US stocks will open up, following the word from the FED, yesterday on rate rises planned for 2022. This will push up the LSE stocks, too.

Cine remains up over 10% not sure I follow the "down she goes" mantra you're singing.

The market reacts to news.

I don't get this fascination with "15 minutes to US opening" - as Bonkers says, anyone is free to trade during LSE hours.

Speaking of US news though, some analysts are stating that Regal/Cineworld could see the litigation ongoing for YEARS.

I believe 6 months was too conservative.

“Look, is there opportunity to gain market share? Yes. But the thing is that Cineworld is going to appeal and that could go on for a COUPLE OF YEARS before the whole process is exhausted. We know Cineworld is going to kick the can down the road because they don’t have the financial flexibility to pay this,” said Eric Handler of MKM Partners. Cineworld “won’t sell asset at depressed prices until someone forces them to pay.”

Ask yourself this, what is the landscape for Box office/cinema going to be in years to come?

I am expecting a full Box Office recovery akin to China by Q1/Q2 2022.

Source: https://deadline.com/2021/12/amc-entertainment-adam-aron-cineworld-regal-amc-stock-1234891902/#comment-3324637

US markets reacted very well to the FED increasing rates for 2022.

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, even with rising rates, stocks could keep rising for 10 months.

Inflation needs to be curbed and in turn we will see the price of consumer items and RPI adjust - this will mean more money for consumers in the long run and with more money, comes more spending ability which leisure and hospitality will enjoy - this includes, Cineworld.

Source: https://fortune.com/2021/12/14/fed-rate-hike-2022-stock-market-outlook/

Another consideration that may forget is the PASSIVE income stream, Cineworld gets from the across the world.

It's a wonderful subscription model that entices many to stay and even encourage spend at conessions offering a 10% discount on popcorn and drink is a great money spinner - it's no secret that popcorn and drink mark-ups are where cinemas make the most amount of money and who can say no to freshly made, hot buttery popcorn.

WIth close to 500,000 subscriptions paying $30/month in the US / £15/month in the UK that is around ~$180m/year.

Now we have France and many putting off their holidays to summer 2022, we will see an uplift in staycation activities and cinema will be very much part of that.

Great observations, mountainous.

If missed synergies are to be considered, when you factor that non essential retail and leisure activities (inc. cinemas) were closed down, I struggle to compute how much loss of revenue took place during the peak Covid period that Cineplex call out.

I think an appeal stands a strong chance of refuting these damages.

The market believes so too given the share price movement we are now seeing.

Yesterday was clearly over sold.

That is very anecdotal, where-is-my, sadly the data suggests otherwise.

Source: https://variety.com/2021/film/global/cineworld-regal-trading-update-dune-no-time-to-die-1235112191/

October say a 90% box office recovery and more will be much more comfortable attending the cinema, particularly when the peak demographic is 12-24 year olds with over 88% of all attendance under 55.

In short, this is a demographic that is returning back to the cinema in flocks.

Historical data certainly does apply.

We are still operating in a Covid era but with no immediate liquidity concerns and a recovering box office landscape, we are in fact in a more favourable position than last October (2020) when we saw such a significant rise.

You see autumn and winter is a cinemas best friend and with Spiderman, Matrix and Kingsman lined-up all of which will appeal to the peak demographic, I'm expecting Mooky to deliver some stellar results for Q4.

Thanks, Bonkers - it's great to be back in Cineworld.

I don't wish to gloat but I managed to buy a sizeable amount last October 2020 and consider the situation was absolutely dire - immediate liquidity concerns and no direction.

Now we have a minor setback with a judgement which is being appealed, but importantly and what seems to have escaped so many:

1. No immediate liquidity concerns
2. Appeal in progress - will take the best part of 6 months minimum
3. A 90% recovery in box office and major studios like Disney/Marvel, WB, Sony and Universal all making it clear: 2022 will see an exclusive window and like Fast and the Furious 9, if the performance is good, they will EXTEND the theatrical window for a movie

I'm very glad I got in now and I fully expect to see similar recovery performance in the share price.

The current share price is a steal at this price IMO.

Timeline of previous movement of share price:

October 2020 = 17p
November 2020 = 66p (388% increase)
December 2020 = 72p (423% increase)
January 2021 = 88p (517% increase)
February 2021 = 104p (611% increase)

Four (4) months so the share price go up 6x - right now, many are hoping to see low 20s or teens again, they are delusional. It only hit that price last October 2020 because of immediate liquidity concerns - this isn't the case now, regardless, we will see a very health return at this great price.

Sadly, Bonkers there are too many amateur shorters who may have completed a few YouTube crash courses blissfully ignorant to how the market will sucker them in and then spit them out.

I'm fully expecting a TR-1 tomorrow with some big buys from institutions and short positions reducing.

The appeal process will take a 6 month period at which point, we will see full box office recovery, lenders and landlords agreeing that footfall is up and servicing other ancillary revenue streams like restaurants and cafes.

The share price will be significantly up all the while amateur shorters will be wondering why they didn't close their positions earlier.

it was entirely predictable this would return to the 30s.

Now we await more Spiderman mania; box office data will be coming through.

If Korea is anything to go by, this new theatrical exclusive release will be 10-15% more lucrative than the pre-pandemic 2019 Spiderman with regards to box office takings across other territories.

Best of all Sony have an exclusive agreement to put their Marvel offering to Netflix and Disney+ will begin to see interest fizzle as more become accustom to theatrical exclusivity.

This is a major bullish signal for the theatrical exhibition and Cineworld will happily ride the coat tails of this positive news.

Source: https://deadline.com/2021/12/spider-man-no-way-home-opening-weekend-international-box-office-1234891616/