Member Info for RS2002

Anyone else smell that desperation?

Posting an article from 15 December 2021?

Have a £1 from me for your coffee cup.

He doesn’t have the bottle to short it. He’s just an opportunist with an empty coffee cup looking for a lower entry.

“92% of client accounts are long on this market”

Little wonder IG are nervous. It’s going to be a big pay day for them to the majority of IG customers with LONG positions open. If I was IG, I’d be pushing FUD too, to get positions to close.

As other have cited, Cineworld have no immediate liquidity concerns, debt covenant not due until June (6 months) at 5.0x

The Net Debt (ND) to Earnings Before Interest Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) ratio is a debt ratio that shows how many years it would take for a company to pay back its debt.

Pre-Coronavirus, Cineworld’s Net Debt was $3.5 Billion (Pre-IRFS 16) and they scored a 3.4 ND/EBITDA ratio, which was very low (under 5 is considered good) and was used to support covenant testing by lenders to install confidence that they were in a good place to pay back their debt.

Given the way the box office has responded and once we see Q4 disclosed I have every confidence that lenders will relax the ND/EBITDA ratio as they will see us exit the pandemic and on a positive road to recovery.

Keep in mind, Cineworld have negotiated some changes to their ND/EBITDA ratio in the past to give them more breathing space to get through the pandemic and reduced footfall. Cineworld previously had their ND/EBITDA ratio increased to 9.0x to support the testing covenant due 31 December 2020. It will happen again. The lenders will crunch the numbers and if there is a chance of a covenant breach 6 months from now, watch for the update from Cineworld to announce relaxation or we are either very close.

Happy with my entry and ready to see Cineworld recover again to 120-150p by the end of Q1 is my estimate.

I witness this past October and saw Cineworld recover from 17p to 104p. This isn’t my first ride.

Source: https://www.ig.com/uk/shares/markets-shares/cineworld-group-plc-CINE-UK

Happy New Year, all.

2022 is a new year to look forward to.

Keep healthy, content and happy.

Wait a minute, Biden has advised the winter plan for the US is to shun lockdowns, restrictions and push the vaccine booster drive and testing. That is also where Cineworld hosts some ~75% of its cinemas after all.

It's a good job, you're not aiming high for 2022, eh?

Good spot, FunInvestor.

Sadly Mojo don’t present a quarterly breakdown of worldwide.

That said, domestic (US) is still a good indicator and appreciating Cineworld run almost 75% of their cinemas in the US will give us good confidence of a positive quarter.

I await the update in a few weeks time from Cineworld with much anticipation.

Not sure why we have some posters sharing OLD Motley Fool recommendations.

The LATEST one is a BUY.

“I know I am disagreeing with some of my Fool colleagues here, but on balance Cineworld looks well worth a punt to me at a current share price of around 32p.“

Source: https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/12/30/the-cineworld-share-price-looks-cheap-to-me/

This year will end with a cumulative Q4 total of $1,995,319,445 in the global box office.

Comparatively, 2019 Q4 recorded $2,889,021,866 in global box office takings.

Percentage wise, 2021 has observed a 70% recovery of 2019 (pre-pandemic) box office takings.

This is an incredible milestone.

It is little wonder, Mooky has stated he has seen FOUR (not three) strong performing months.

I believe Cineworld will state it was able to see ~70-75% of 2019 performance in Q4 this year, I believe the market and analysts will significantly rerate our target.

The data will be empirical; cinema is recovering, the business model is still valid and Cineworld won’t just return to net cash flow, it will record profit in time to come.

Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/

Battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric can cohabit together and the technologies both have an important role to play.

Nikola trucks is striving for this with their hydrogen trucks.

https://www.nikolamotor.com/energy

Keep in mind all, there have been ZERO TR-1 statements from institutional investors.

They are clearly NOT reducing their positions, so why needless worry?

The box office takings and Mooky quoting four strong performing months is doing the talking.

The appeal process is in play and there are likely a number of commercial sensitivities that deny Cineworld from sharing too much. I don’t want to see the process jeopardised, so I will leave it in their hands.

This screams UK approval leak to me. Time will tell - I'll be keeping my eye open for an RNS, tomorrow.

Thanks for posting, this was a good read and as you say, another lucrative area that could see Kromek capitalise on.

I look forward to viewing Kromek's 2022 business objectives/roadmap that may reveal more on this revenue stream.

This bodes very well for Q4.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/12/28/movies-on-their-way-back-after-strong-last-four-months-says-cineworld-ceo.html

Got to love predictive text!!

*Nice

*A niece piece from the FT

A nice from the FT citing the need to have a nationwide airborne pathogen detection system, even going as far as quoting the ~£2bn estimated spend from Kromek to set this up.

Some great exposure for Kromek and I really hope government agencies are in talks with Kromek about getting this off the ground.

Time will tell but from what I can see, Kromek are less interested in small commercial sales and more interested in government initiatives if the earlier UAE talks are anything to go by.

“Effective detection would require an array of sensors — consisting of an air sampling device and a rapid DNA sequencer — at ports, airports, and international rail hubs. This would act as a virus weather map operating in near real time. Once detected, infected people or animals would be obliged to quarantine or isolate. Since the system picks up only the location of dangerous pathogens, rather than the individuals affected, people in the relevant area would have to agree to be tested in order to isolate the source. The cost of an integrated threat system is estimated at around £2bn for a country the size of the UK, according to the chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threat security company KROMEK. Given the £37bn budgeted for a moribund test and trace system, threat detection looks like good value.”

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/c43eaac6-7386-4bcf-93cb-fcc89dab0654

Love this statement which summarises it so well:

“Traditionally, the synergies resulting from a transaction have been viewed as benefits that accrue to the buyer, not the seller”

Many on this board have stated such.

Complete opposite for me.

I managed to buy big in October 2020 at 17p when de-drampers came out and pushed FUD trying to shake retail hands.

You should have seen these scoundrels all making out they had the retail investors best interest at heart.

That said I see them across IAG, RKH, TUI and other chat boards. They are so predictable.

Within 4 months I saw a great recovery and I see it again:

October 2020 = 17p
November 2020 = 66p (388% increase)
December 2020 = 72p (423% increase)
January 2021 = 88p (517% increase)
February 2021 = 104p (611% increase)

I managed to sell in February and now I’ve bought back in at 32p and happy to be patient for some big gains.

My take is that Cineworld believed that Cineplex breached the debt covenants set about as part of the Arrangement Agreement.

This, the argument was, why should they pay £24-28m when it was Cineplex that was at fault.

Many posting here believe Cineworld should have just rolled over and paid the £24-28m. I disagree. That is a sizeable amount of money and the Cineworld BoD are duty bound to look after shareholder interests.

Get some rest, bullsbears and tomorrow, have a read through the contract using the URL I posted earlier in this thread and let me know your thoughts.

I read a PRIOR figure and an AFTER figure depending on the date.

EITHER will be part of the SHAREHOLDER TERMINATION FEE.

I read this that PRIOR they pay the equivalent in Sterling £24,157,480 and AFTER 20 Feb they pay £28,275,895 (increase of £4,118,415).

We irrevocably and unconditionally undertake, represent and warrant to you that we shall pay to the Company

(a) $41,520,000 in the event the Termination Event (as defined below) occurs PRIOR to 11:59:59 p.m. (Toronto time) on February 2, 2020,

and

(b) £28,275,895 (payable in Canadian dollars based on the spot foreign exchange rate published by Bloomberg at 11:30:00 p.m. (Toronto Time) on the date of this letter agreement) in the event the Termination Event occurs AFTER 11:59:59 p.m. (Toronto time) on February 2, 2020

(EITHER, (a) or (b), as applicable, the “Shareholder Termination Fee”)

Funinvestor, my take is that Cineplex raised the aggrievance. It was in their best interest to get the most awarded they could. They would not want to settle for a termination fee. Cineworld had no choice but to oblige the Canadian court summoning. They have followed through but they will appeal and as HNS’s news stream correctly insinuates, this could well find its way in the U.K. courts where I believe the termination fee will hold. The argument that lost synergies was the basis of most of the remuneration reward is illogical. There was no synergy to begin with and as others have stated, during the covid era, how would one calculate it? Surely with closures and during peak pandemic, cinemas were closed and their costs were negative. It was more expensive to keep the theaters running and staffed, so how compensation can be awarded is absurd. This is exactly what the U.K. courts would see reason to and supports the 25% chance of Cineplex winning an award.

I have feel more confident in cineworld especially when you consider pre covid, 2019 - Cineworld had a turn-over of $4bn and after setting all debts made a healthy profit of $0.2bn - this was also realised as 9-10% dividend paid to shareholders.

- The business model works
- Demand across western territories is recovering
- The termination agreement exists with cineplex
- No synergies were lost

The share price is at 32p with plenty of upside for me.