Member Info for RS2002

From today and because of the success of the booster rollout, all measures under Plan B have been lifted.

No more face masks in doors which should encourage more to attend cinemas (appreciating that it did help concession sales - you cannot wear a mask whilst eating popcorn and having a drink).

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/england-returns-to-plan-a-as-regulations-on-face-coverings-and-covid-passes-change-today

Lejjb, first of all - don't take my response as personal. I have no desire to block you or anyone for that matter. I am merely calling out that misleading posts to encourage others to sell to satisfy your cheaper entry are wrong.

Regards to the box-office claim that "unless you have US comparative figures, the UK ones are all that professional investors and traders can use to gauge commercial success" this is simply incorrect. If Cineworld had a 50-50% split you could forecast with a degree of accuracy, however as stated several times, when Cineworld's UK operations amounts to just a little over 10% of their estate and you forgo the other 90% of their box office admission, you have to heavily caveat that claim which you did not.

As for THG, the SP declined to 160p since your 191p push to then 120p - a 40% drop. I held off buying THG as I could see it declining and when the Russia/Ukraine situation hit I managed to buy and I hold an average of 130p, some 30% cheaper than the "double bottom" you called.

I suggested you put in a DYOR at the end of your comments when posting technicals, so not to mislead other investors.

Lejjb, I don't make posts personal but you at risk of losing credibility.

This thread was commented where it was explained that using UK cinema box office figures alone, was misleading when you appreciate that Cineworld's UK estate only comprises 12% of their estate. The US makes up 75% and is more relevant. Universal's Sing 2 was released in December there and has carried over into January there so whilst we in the UK may have had a reduced movie slate (because Sony's Morbius moved to 1st April) a lacklustre quarter is certainly not a given, particularly as we have 2 more months to follow.

I appreciate you are looking for a cheaper entry but I would ask you be more considerate with misleading posts.
You have been ramping THG for some time with some misleading technicals. Case in point, you posted on the THG BB:

Board: THG (The Hut Group)
Price: 191.40
Good technical signal
12 Jan 2022 10:29
lejjb posted:
"I pointed out yesterday that the daily candlestick looked like a bullish harami - the shape changed and we were only borderline after the candle became red, and this look more like a doji (look again on Investopedia for an explanation). However, today's clear rise is a confirmation of the change of momentum to bullish.
The MACD has also gone from red to pink, also announcing a possible (but not strong yet) move to bullishness. But more interestingly, we have clear bullish divergence of the MACD.
And finally, it appears we have formed a double bottom."

The share price then tanked ~40% to 120p. Please be careful and post up "DYOR - don't take my posts as accurate" as investors can take what you write for truth and be out of pocket.

TheMadStork whilst your objective post is appreciated, it is flawed.

1. You are using UK weekend box office to base your forecast for Cineworld's entire global performance when you need to appreciate that UK cinemas make up just 12% of their estate. The US where 75% of Cineworld estate is most valuable and appreciating that Scream (5) did very well and in fact obtained their entire budget ($24m+?? marketing) in the first weekend (MLK) of $30-40m, it did very well and then appreciate that Spider-man NWH is showing great legs as it has reclaimed the top-spot again in the weekly charts.

2. January is a slow month, as FunInvestor has posted, you need to look at the quarter to give you a more accurate projection. Morbius deferred from January to 1st April means it will be a Q2 performer now.

3. You have not accounted for concessions or advertisement revenues, where advertisement is applicable, I posted this a few weeks ago, 2019 witness ~$500m in advertisement revenue, it is ticket sale agnostic - Cineworld will get paid regardless to the number of bums on seats. This is useful because it is reported that cinema advertisement is looking very bullish and will return to 2019 levels. Source: https://www.thedrum.com/news/2022/01/14/cinema-spend-near-2019-levels-almost-every-advertiser-returns

So in summary, you are cherry picking information to base a flawed forecast.

Time will tell but as we see Omicron has peaked in the UK and the expectation is the US will too. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/23/fauci-omicron-us-peak

Cineworld is well placed to recover this year.

No supply chain issues with product, microprocessor glut or other inflationary concerns that could stub the movie release process, either.

Content is king and 2022 has plenty of big movies to keep paying customers coming.

Popcorn and drinks machines remain in situ and merely need refills and the margins are incredibly high, as much as 1500% markup with popcorn.

“Cineworld’s small bag of popcorn had an eye-watering mark-up of 1500%.”

Cineworld is well positioned in this current climate to perform very well.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/1ty0bQlZXsgTwbhFVCyzNl6/mark-ups-popcorn-and-parking

1. Politically sensitive geography where cinemas are located? No
2. Supply chain issues with product (movies already produced, popcorn and drinks machines in situ)? No
3. Immediete liqudidity concerns? No

It's not difficult to see that Cineworld is well positioned in the current climate to do very well and the market is appreciating that.

Ouch, Bonkers. I bought at an average of 32p in ARB and I was very envious of those who had it sub 10p. Such a shame to see where it is going now price wise. Let us hope the Pluto listing helps them recover as I believe they hold 25% interest in the company.

For now, Cineworld is looking like one of the safer stocks right now - which is hard to believe, but given they have product which isn't at risk, 75% of their estate is in a safe geography and their concessions are popcorn kernels and drinks we should see some good money made here at least.

Cineworld is holding up well considering the awful day global markets are having.

I feel for those in crypto right now particularly miners like Argo Blockchain. I managed to sell out of that at 138p with a little profit but in hindsight I should have sold in the 300s.

I feel stocks like Cineworld which have 75% of their cinemas in the US, where it has a busy 2022 slate of movies that are already produced (no supply issues) and ready to play is a great hedge to that of travel, energy and mining (crypto and minerals) given the escalating crisis in Europe.

Good luck, investors.

Oh dear, the BOT engine from the shorters has incorrectly posted an article dated: Fri 22 Jan 2021 11.40 GMT (1 year old).

That is shame but I suspect this is related to the Ukraine Russia border issue going on. Something political for sure.

If Paramount and Sundance were worried about playing the movie, they would have deferred Top Gun which is coming out in months, rather than a movie that was slated for September this year.

I don't buy the Covid reason.

14th January 2022 – Scream
21st January 2022 – Belfast
21st January 2022 – A Journal for Jordan
21st January 2022 – Nightmare Alley
28th January 2022 – Sing 2
11th February 2022 – Uncharted
11th February 2022 – Death on the Nile
25th February 2022 – Cyrano
4th March 2022 – The Batman
18th March 2022 – Downton Abbey: A New Era
25th March 2022 – The Lost City
1st April 2022 – Sonic the Hedgehog 2
1st April 2022 – The Bad Guys
1st April 2022 – Morbius
8th April 2022 – Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
22nd April 2022 – Operation Mincemeat
22nd April 2022 – The Northman
6th May 2022 – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
20th May 2022 – DC League of Superpets
27th May 2022 – Top Gun: Maverick ---------------------------> PARAMOUNT Release still on track!
10th June 2022 – Jurassic World: Dominion
17th June 2022 – Lightyear
24th June 2022 – The Black Phone
24th June 2022 – Elvis
1st July 2022 – Minions: The Rise of Gru
8th July 2022 – Thor: Love and Thunder
22nd July 2022 – Nope
22nd July 2022 – Where the Crawdads Sing
29th July 2022 – Black Adam
23rd September 2022 – Don't Worry Darling
30th September 2022 – Mission: Impossible 7 ------------------------------------> Political agenda
7th October 2022 – Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 2
4th November 2022 – The Flash
11th November 2022 – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
16th December 2022 – Avatar 2

Netflix is now down 25% and this is going to make Bob Chapek, CEO Disney very nervous. There is no way that Netflix was alone in the streaming bubble that is now showing its cracks.

Strike, good comment about Netflix looking at cinema. Mooky has in fact said he would welcome dialogue with Netflix and made it clear, he would not entertain any hearsay over the internet, social media - it would be a tabled conversation to discuss terms. I would like to see Netflix who make good content, start playing in cinemas with a theatrical window.

Red Notice was a big budget movie, but it still had that stigma of "made for tv" all over it - Netflix could easily add some prestige and enhance the value of their content looking at playing cinemas for some of their larger movies. This would then play on their streaming platform and allow them to reduce costs and make up money elsewhere.

Netflix advertising an increase has gone down like a lead balloon - the cost of inflation and talent is only going to continue driving this up.

- The Basic plan goes from $8.99 to $9.99 per month. A $1 increase.
- The Standard plan goes from $13.99 to $15.49 per month. A $1.50 increase.
- The Premium plan goes from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. A $2 increase.

If Netflix can play 10% of their movies in cinemas and use box office sales to recoup or even profit from their movies, they can pass this saving down to subscribers else we will continue to see their share price drop further and further.

4. You stated that funds or institions are not investing in Cineworld. Have you actually reviewed the breakdown?

Public Companies = 13.9%
Private Companies = 20.2%
Insitutions = 41.6%
Retail Investors = 24.1%

There is a huge investment from funds.

Source: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/media/lse-cine/cineworld-group-shares/news/what-type-of-shareholders-own-the-most-number-of-cineworld-g

Your subtle de-ramp actually helps the case for Cineworld, Chatroom.

1. Cineworld was 15% shorted in February 2020 (before lockdowns or restrictions concerning Covid were announced). The share price was 220p (some 5x higher than he current SP)

2. Mooky (CEO) was quoted back in 2019 after the Regal takeover that Cineworld has always been a target for shorters as streaming services were picking up - well guess what, yesterday Netflix reported a missed growth target and analyst are quickly establishing that it could be the next bubble ready to burst. The area is too saturated now with multiple streamers, the previous cable companies (read: SKY TV) had a single subscription offering content across the channel and genre spectrum, now you have so many multiple streamers all wanting money - the consumer will grow tired and cut down, pirate where content is available free thanks to a generation who are much more tech savvy and this will hurt studios who are investing hundreds of millions into big movies (like Matrix) to find they are pirated and their content stolen.

3. Cineworld has already completed a number of initiatives for synergies such as bars (NYC has just approved the consumption of alcohol in their movie theatres btw) and restaurants and other VIP lounge areas etc. They also offering private screens for parties and gaming events, plays being streamed and extend their screens for business conferencing. That said the bread and butter is for consumers to enjoy out of home entertainment and Spiderman has proven if the content is there, the demand will always exist.

Thanks for posting, LPD. Great to see Everyman also doing well and bodes well for a global box office recovery I believe is achievable this year. Many analysts say 2022 will recover leading to 2023 for a full recovery.

Citi says the guidance will start speculations on whether the broader SVOD (subscription video on demand) market is going "ex-growth".

The cinema business model is being strengthen each day this quarter. Bodes very well as more big movies prepare for premier exclusively via theatrical distributors like Cineworld.

Any analyst worth their salt will now look at dwindling streaming growth and overlay it with the box office recovery.

This isn't a decision to reduce short interest on impulse or a whim, it will be well thought out from the funds and they will continue to do so. They will now do their best to exit carefully, so not to spike the share price but this is where Retail investors have an opportunity to acquire more and make it more difficult and see the share price rise.

I can also see a TR-1 or multiple ones issued with intuitions now BUYING MORE Cineworld as a result of the Netflix streaming disappointment.

So much for streaming taking over and decimating the theatrical experience. Q4 was a about ~75% recovered across the average with almost 90% recovered for December for Cineworld to pre-pandemic 2019 revenue.

The penny is dropping that the recovery of out of home entertainment is a forgone conclusion.

Netflix slumping is just the start. Other streamers, notably Disney+ will report the same and importantly we will see more and more movies being theatrical exclusive and respecting a window.

Warner Bros have seen The Matrix Resurrections flop in China because it was day date released. It was pirated heavily before Warner Bros was able to see any significant revenue let alone profit considering HBO Max doesn’t operate there.

This is a great win for Cineworld shareholders and you should be mindful to ignore the damper/deramper tag team currently going on to distract you and other investors of this very positive news.

I can see institutions rerating Cineworld and it has also further negated the pro streaming stance from Morgan Stanleys Ed Young.

91% of client accounts are LONG on Cineworld.

I feel for those 9% who have gone the other way. Once Boris announces the end of Plan B and the plan to see all restrictions and tests end by March, we will see thoe 9% stop-loss and exit.

Source: https://www.ig.com/uk/shares/markets-shares/cineworld-group-plc-CINE-UK

Great find, Hussartbr.

Once we have Boris announce the end of Plan B and the expectation that come March, things will be returning to normal (rumour) - this will significantly re-rate.

This is the quarter for recovery plays and Cineworld is the leader of the pack.

Meanwhile, Cineworld reports 90% recovery during December 2021 (peak Omicron period).

Given the cases are easing and normality is within our sights, do you think, Squib that attendance will be going down or up? That was a rhetorical question before you google it.