Member Info for RS2002

I believe it is all about the target demographic.

Peak demographic for cinema going is the 15-24 year olds.

If the churn rate for streaming is increasing, it is usually the head of the household paying. This would put the onus on teenagers and young adults who will have more disposable income as they don’t have to pay mortgages and utility bills for energy suppliers, meaning they should continue to visit multiplexes as part of an afternoon or evening out.

I also agree with Fun; it is about the consolidated takings for the quarter through box office, concessions and advertising that should see us recover.

Fantastic RNS to read this morning.

Also pleased to read under other corporate updates:

On 28 March 2022, the Company received the following update from the Chairman of the Panel considering the Ombrina Mare arbitration:

"The Tribunal anticipates that the proceedings will be closed in the next few weeks."

The Company will update the market once it is informed that proceedings are closed.

Under the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes rules, the final decision should then be rendered within a four month period, although there is the potential for this to be extended to six months at the arbitrators' request.

Rockhopper continues to believe it has strong prospects of recovering very significant monetary damages - on the basis of lost profits - as a result of the Republic of Italy's breaches of the Energy Charter Treaty.

It seems we finally have an updated timeline that could see an award granted within 4-6 months.

This would be the remaining post-FID amount to fund phase one.

“Subject to a positive FID, Navitas will provide an interest free loan to Rockhopper to fund two-thirds of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion phase one development costs (for any costs not met by third party debt financing). Certain costs, such as licence costs, are excluded”

The ducks are lining up.

Investors should keep in mind that;

1. Cineworld is no stranger to short interest. It has seen short positions as high as 16% (pre-covid)

2. Net Asset Value (NAV) is not the correct bechmark to value Cineworld. Profit to Earnings (P/E) is the correct one. Cineworld has returned profit every year pre-covid.

Ignore the FUD and those with agendas.

The time difference and claim to be off to bed soon suggests this poster is a Walter Mitty.

The time in Pattaya City, Bang Lamung District, Chon Buri, Thailand is GMT + 7.

It is at the time of this post 0406AM there.

As others have stated, this has stopped from 20p to 2p and the bad news is priced in.

If you are not invested, don’t waste your time scaring others off. Steer clear of this share.

For those who have assessed risk vs reward, they are sensible enough to know if they want to remain invested or not without FUD being pushed.

Is anyone else reading the RNS, from POG as a tactical play to subtly advise bond holders and institutional holders (which will include lenders and their affiliates) that they need more flexibility in payment terms whilst the current crisis plays out?

This appears to be a game of leverage and if the worst case scenario is now priced in, what is the upside and value should a compromise be achieved?

I’m personally diversified enough with a low average to sit tight.

I took a small top up this morning but like Evraz, Eurasia and Poly these are shares to tuck in an ISA and leave until geopolitical issues resolve.

Also if you’re down, keep in mind BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has taken about $17bn in losses on its Russian securities holdings because of the attack on Ukraine. Clients held more than $18.2bn in Russian assets at the end of January. They have seen 93% of the value of their Russian investments wiped out. What did they do? Issue TR1s to signify an increase in their positions.

Trading absolutely fine with Halifax

So pleased that I was able to bag some at 203p and up 33% in a day on that top-up. As others have posted, it is near impossible to trade and then buy the quantity you want back. Thus, it is easier to buy these big dips and sit tight.

Good luck, investors.

Did the same at 203p and content with my increased holdings.

1. ~50% of operations and income via Kazakhstan
2. Revex and Manpower spent in Roubles (preferred at current exchange rate)
3. Metals sold in USD (preferred at current exchange rate)
4. Divided deferred not cancelled

These are marked for open in August/September when I believe the climate will be improved and value restored.

Good luck, investors.

I just checked Box-office Mojo and the US/Domestic box office seems to be doing well.

I appreciate this is just one weekend but

2019
=====
Weekend Apr 5-7 = $137k

2022
Weekend Apr 8-10 = $116k

That is a ~85% recovery to 2019 levels for that particular weekend.

I appreciate the share appears to have stagnated and the BB quiet - I imagine so because the news of Cineplex is priced in and we are now in a holding pattern awaiting further updates.

What we can do is just continue to monitor box office performance.

As others have posted, Q2 appears to be picking up and there are plenty of good movies to entice audiences. It isn't new to hear that this generation is facing a real living crisis with high inflation but investors should remind themselves that teenagers and young adults may be putting holidays abroad on the backburner but will look for local activities to keep them entertained. Hollywood has a great movie slate and some big blockbusters await including Dr Strange 2, Top Gun 2, Nope, and Bullet Train. Thor to name a few so there is plenty to attract audiences back.

I remain invested but I'm not participating as much in discussion - as stated, I am merely keeping an eye on the box office performance and the newstream on the appeal process.

Good luck, investors.

Source: https://www.ig.com/uk/shares/markets-shares/cineworld-group-plc-CINE-UK

Coincidence that the derampers are spamming the board with tired 2020 arguments about how streaming is the way forward and cinemas are redundant?

Mr B at this rate you will tell us you pickup table scraps than spend £1.99 on a BigMac. The posters have made the point aptly. You do not compare a stay at home experience to that of one where you go out and make an afternoon or evening accompanying a movie with a meal out. A substitute is not staying home watching Netflix eating a microwave meal. One is vastly cheaper but does not return the same experience.

Peak demographics of cinemas are the under 25s and given the rising cost of property many want to seek refuge outside the home from the eye of parents or siblings for home with friends or partners.

The cinema has always done well even during recessions.

Further more the loss from studios due to piracy when streaming presents a 4K Dolby rip within a few hours is too vast to adopt permanently. Warner Bros ditched project popcorn and day date to HBO Max because it was not viable.

This is a tired argument and one played out.

LTHs aren’t swayed.

Like you, LPD, I'm in Poly, Evraz and Petropavlovsk and whilst many here have posted their disdain, these companies have valuable resources and are significantly undersold.

I believe Mooky has alluded to a US listing on the cards in the future which accomodate a gradual debt reduction.

For now, we have to remind ourselves 2019 when Cineworld was making $0.2BN profit, Net Debt was $3.4BN (Pre-IRFS 16). Debt has now increased to $4.5BN (Pre-IRFS 16) but what other industry in particular hospitality and lesiure didn't suffer similar harship?

Right now, Cineworld has negotiated with landlords and they need their legal team to appeal the Cineplex decision or reach a settlement out of court so the share price can recover and move on.

Personally - I am content waiting as an investor. I cashed out earlier at 104p and have returned with an average of 31p now so am happy to ride any short term volaility in the share price.

Good luck, investors.

Hexam, when you consider lenders afforded a 9.0x ND/EBITDA ratio test for December 2020, I would say it is nearly certain they will afforded leniency.

Why would a lender default a debt when we are now finally beginning to live with covid and the box office is demonstrating a gradual recovery. Q2 will be a much more fruitful period given the movie slate as we lead to summer. Regards to the RCF, perhaps they will seek to pay it off early despite the maturity being 2024 I believe but it wouldn’t surprise me if more convertible bonds are issued with a later maturity. I.e. issue today at the current SP and mandate maturity at 300p for example would be a significant return on investment to backers or institutions who can easily wait.

Do you understand the difference between debt maturity date and covenant test?

Some of Cineworld’s debt maturity is 2023/2024.

It is facing a June covenant test of 5.0x ND/EBITDA in June this year. This is a test from lenders to ensure they are making progress and positioned to satisfy future test. There is no immediate payment due. Maturity for some loans is 2023/2024. Enough time for the box office recovery to continue and ensure the business is viable and cash positive, as Q4 2021 was.

A great strategy to protect assets and mitigate the risk of any event further escalating.

Best of luck, Cruis1.

Wish you luck with your other investments.

Personally, I’m sitting put, which is the same strategy for the numerous institutional investors who haven’t reduced their holdings as we haven’t see any TR-1 statements issued.

The box office recovery is coming.

Bonkers, you can see who the traders are and who the investors are so don’t be dishearten by those making public claims of leaving.

I hope you were able to close that position, Manz and didn't get too burnt.

Yes, Cruis1 - start printing an Advent calendar.