Member Info for RS2002

Many of us have discussed the merit of this strategy.

Netflix has seen over 200,000 subscribers drop and industry experts forecast more abandoning them as the streaming market becomes

1. Too saturated
2. Too expensive
3. Lacklustre and “lost” amongst dozens, hundreds of other titles

John Fithian, head of the movie theater industry's trade body NATO has allegedly had conversations with Netflix CEO and content chief Ted Sarandos and "urged him to take a shot at seeing if they can also do well theatrically."

It is no secret many Netflix customers are not happy that

a) advertisements are coming
b) Password sharing clampdown is coming

Netflix have an opportunity to play SOME big production movies in cinemas first, RECLAIM production costs, SAVE the consumer having to absorb these costs by keeping mo they subscription costs for down.

In the process, Netflix can expect to make money via an additional revenue stream and not only advertise their movies and services more but reduce streaming churn rate too.

Netflix LOST $54 Billion in Market capitalisation.

Source: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220428-can-movie-theaters-save-netflix-door-is-open-says-trade-group-boss

Great find, Herbey.

Does anyone know what exploit or workaround from Greece was used?

100% agree, Mountainous.

The media has discussed this with lenders who say much the same.

“Cineworld debt pile set to save cinema operator from bankruptcy”

Canadian rival UNLIKELY to push for damages over failed takeover due to debt structure.

“… investors in Cineworld’s debt expect the two companies to strike a deal for a significantly lower amount even if unsuccessful… because if Cineworld were pushed into bankruptcy by the damages, Cineplex would be near the back of the queue of creditors to be paid, multiple lenders told the Financial Times“

I can see the 10% rise has already attracted the day traders so they will no doubt come to push FUD/ramp according to their current position.

Long term holders need to remind themselves that the theatrical business is an essential distribution vehicle. The property footprint and footfall attracts visitors to ancillary retail streams like restaurants, pubs and even shopping malls.

This is not a small time boutique cinema, it is a multi billion dollar multiplex, second largest in the world and it is not facing the current punitive measures other industries are because of geopolitical issues. Western territories have managed Covid and have come to live with it. It is back to business. The argument that streaming will make cinemas redundant is defeated. Those working from home spending 10 hours in the home office will also not want to retreat to the living room after a long day to watch television. They will want to enjoy time themselves, with friends or family out of the home and Cineworld is well positioned to cater to that demand.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/949af51b-7807-41c6-a895-223519dfa221

You have answered the question, Hexam.

We simply don’t know what is happening closed doors.

I mentioned yesterday in another thread that I am also invested in another company. An oil exploration outfit called Rockhopper. The have been involved in a legal arbitrage with the Italian government which has been running since 2017. Five (5) years investors have remained patient and just this week, they were told legal council has been drawn to a close and a judgement/award will be issued within 120 days (so another 1-4 month timeline).

Throughout this time, the CEO has stated he believes despite an upheaval battle that the judgement will be awarded in favour of shareholders and he has kept shareholders regularly updated throughout that five year period. I hopeful we have similar communication updates from Cineworld and something can be agreed out of court to maximise shareholder value for us all.

I suspect it was just algo sells, yesterday. As another poster put it, part of macro market conditions that we are just a casualty of right now amongst thousands.

Right now, the focus is on the summer months and the movies that await theatrical release.

Studios have reiterated their support of theatrical first. The streaming churn rate continues to grow pushing the peak demographic to escape the home and seek refuge in a cinema. Cineworld is well placed to welcome them and upsell concessions at the same time. This is a peak demographic (15-24) that as no interest in reporting deadlines, school fees or mortgage payments over the summer holidays.

I hopeful we hear some positive news on the appeal soon but if not, I will appreciate the commercial and legal sensitivities that potentially deny too much transparency to shareholders and the market.

Totally agree, Bonkers.

The first was originally released in 2009.

Most 15 year olds would have been 3 years old and more interested in Lego and dolls than going to a cinema.

This is going to open the movie franchise to an entirely new generation of teenagers and young adults.

There will be 4-5 of the movies one released each year so more great movies for theatrical exhibition.

Disney are remastering the first Avatar movie and re-releasing this September. A great movie to

a) Increase box office revenue
b) Build anticipation for December

Encouraging data, betahighalpha.

I am also aware that Fandango, the US largest cinema ticket broker conducted a survey that states that moviegoers believe that higher-quality films are released in theaters compared to streaming service platforms. The study was conducted on over 6,000 ticket-buyers.

- 93% of respondents said they will see films across multiple genres in theaters (not just superhero/comic book movies);

- 93% will purchase concessions at the theater (up from 84% the prior year), with popcorn and soda ranking as the most popular items;

- 89% indicated that moviegoing is their favorite activity outside of the home (ranking higher than dining out, shopping or sporting activities);

- 85% said they prefer films in immersive premium formats (like Imax and Dolby), feeling they make the moviegoing experience more enjoyable; and

- 68% said they believe believe that only-in-theater movies are of a higher quality than straight-to-streaming titles.

The demand is increasingly growing and bodes well for the coming months starting with Strange 2.

These are the most desirable movies with Strange at number 1, based on the survey.

Survey respondents’ top 10 most anticipated summer movies were:

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (May 6)
Thor: Love and Thunder (July 8)
Jurassic World Dominion (June 10)
Top Gun: Maverick (May 27)
Minions: The Rise of Gru (July 1)
Lightyear (June 17)
Elvis (June 24)
Nope (July 22)
Bullet Train (July 29)
Downton Abbey: A New Era (May 20)

Great support for cinemas from Marvel chief Kevin Feige at this years CinemaCon.

“We make movies for big screens and big crowds.”

Feige said he will be heading right back to the first creative retreat with the Marvel studio team in three years, going through the next DECADE of MCU. “And they are BIG and MEANT for your THEATERS.”

“I know we’re back,” said Feige about theatrical moviegoing. “We made Spider-Man.“

To investors, worried about any existential crisis of where cinemas are in the near decade, remind yourself you have the biggest box office revenue generator: Comic book action movies committed to cinema for a decade. Cinemas are here to stay.

Source: https://deadline.com/2022/04/doctor-strange-in-the-multiverse-of-madness-advance-ticket-sales-extended-footage-cinemacon-1235010956/

Good find, HNS.

That is a 96% upside from the current SP.

Granted this statement was issued by John Fithian, president and CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners (NATO).

His words sing true.

"I am pleased to announce that simultaneous release is dead as a serious business model, and piracy is what killed it,".

Cinemas are not going anywhere. They are an essential distribution vehicle for studios to profit and mitigate production loss.

For consumers they are a welcome respite from home, particularly teenagers and adults.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/26/same-day-theatrical-and-streaming-releases-are-dead-says-natos-john-fithian.html

Hello Tommy, you have answered the question. We are just one industry and play amongst a backdrop of geopolitical tension and China’s Omicron (albeit later than most western territories) is frightening the market.

Keep in mind, yesterday, every major index closed down over 2.30%. The Nasdaq dropped 3.95% and had its worst day of the year. The Russell 2K dropped over 3.26% and the S&P 500 sank 2.81%. The FTSE dropped to a 2 week low.

This is not exclusively a Cineworld decline.

Many will say it is linked to box office performance or the court judgement awarded to Cineplex. These are factors but we have to wait out the box office recovery and exercise more patience on the appeal Cineworld are undertaking.

I had my earlier hopes pegged on a Q1 return to somewhere north of 80-90p, alas Russia invaded so I remain waiting.

Also if you want to see who are really patient, make a visit to Rockhoppers board. Many have been invested since 2010. The Ombrina Mare Arbitration which has had the oil exploration company fight the Italian government on banning offshore drilling has been running since 2017 and has now only just closed legal discussion with a view to award a judgement in 120 days. Now that is patience and I continue to remain invested there.

Good luck and as others have stated, switch off, enjoy life and come back much later.

Q1 has been lacklustre because of the reduced movie slate, some movies under performing I.e. Morbius and Ambulance and the residual impact of Omicron.

That said, I believe we need to assess all income streams rather than just box office takings.

2019 saw:

- 275m admissions
- $2.5bn ticket sales
- $1.2bn concessions and retail
- $0.6bn in other income comprising advertising and commission booking fees

Something that hasn’t been taken into account in this thread is with regards to outgoings. We know Mooky has made it clear that

1. Cost saving exercises have been aggressive and from consultation with the majority of landlords, successful in reducing leasing costs or even deferrals. This can be offset against a reduced earning on ticket sales.

2. Other income specifically advertising is expected to bounce back considerably. Cineworld made ~$600m via this stream along with booking fees.

3. Passive income via Unlimited membership forms part of Ticket Sales. If Boxoffice mojo reports a lower turnout, Cineworld still get paid.

4. I am certain I read that BOTH Universal and Warner Bros agreed to PAY Cineworld a cut, percentage (no idea how much) for reducing the theatrical window to 45 days. Such that Cineworld (and AMC) get paid a cut of streaming revenues.

Finally, I agree that we will see summer and the coming seasons Inc winter when Avatar play boost box office and retail income streams so I am not overly worried about performance just right now.

Finally, I just topped up at 28p :-)

Good luck, investors.

A great read here: https://www.indiewire.com/2022/04/cinemacon-piracy-theaters-1234719274/

The slide that succinctly shuts up streaming fanboys?
[img]https://www.indiewire.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Black-Widow.jpg?resize=1280,709

Sorry to see another LTH go but each of us has to make a decision how we manage our investments. I am sure you made the right decision, KTP, based on your given circumstances.

For me the current share price is immaterial right now. For me and like minded investors, it is about obtaining an update on the company’s performance and their ultimate business recovery roadmap. Many are waiting by the side lines for news on the appeal. We just have to be mindful, right now there are a lot of commercial sensitivities and legal implications which does impact transparency to shareholders. This is frustrating but logical.

I remain invested and from what I have been reading about the CinemaCon event, underway right now in Las Vegas, a number of industry players and experts are predicting a steady recovery to the cinema industry.

To those who remain invested, remind yourselves:

1. Institutional investors remain invested (no TR-1s issued to suggest their holdings have reduced).

2. The BoD are involved in a delicate legal arbitrage and have to be mindful no inside information is revealed or anything that could jeopardise the appeal process.

3. The movie slate for the coming months is attractive. We are now seeing multiple movies released each weekend, rather than just singular movies.

4. Rumours are spreading that WB are debating Batgirl being theatrically released as opposed to straight to TV. The Batman achieved $750m via the Box Office and 720,000 views over HBO Max suggesting if they had only invested in streaming, at $15/month the initial take would have been $10.8m, paltry in comparison to theatrical takings which were $134m US domestic for the opening it saw. Internationally, the movie opened to $124 million for an INITIAL global total of $258 million. Best of all they protected the movie from pirates who had to settle to a horrible CAM rip.

5.; Sony have stated they remain committed to theatrical first. Spider-Man enjoyed an 88 day theatrical window before it was available for digital purchase and then physical media sales like Blu-Ray and DVD. The third best movie performance in box office during Omicron is an incredible result and we will see studios embrace the window more as they witness the streaming bubble burst and high churn rate reported. Netflix losing $54bn in market capitalisation was a big wake up call.

Good luck, investors.

Coach operator National Express said on Tuesday 26/04 that first-quarter group revenues were back to 2019 levels, with the group actually trading ahead of the same time two years earlier during March.

"The cost of living crisis is starting to bite for many people, and our bus services offer an attractive low cost alternative form of travel to help offset higher prices elsewhere," Chief Executive of NEX, Ignacio Garat said.

Tomorrow, Go Ahead will issue Half Year Results and I believe the results to be very encouraging.

Afternoon, Mountainous - thanks for spotting the typo! :-)

What the posters fail to understand is the peak demographics of cinema goers.

15-24 year olds represent the largest portion.

If mum and dad have not paid for streaming services, they will use their disposable income to go out and this will involve a visit to the cinema with their partner and friends etc.

I’m short, I believe the streaming churn rates will be positive for theatrical forecasts and will see studios wanting to make up returns, not double down on more streaming investment.

I won’t go down the route of comparing a home experience go that of an out of home one as that has been done to death now.

*judgement award

Anyone with a modicum of judgement can see who the derampers are and boy are they desperate. It is a nervous time for their positions be it as independent traders or as junior associates for whatever small time brokerage they work for.

Investors should not worry at all.

A partnership agreement is signed and the timeline for the OM arbitration is coming.