Member Info for RS2002

LPD, I can genuinely say the current share price does not bother me in the slightest. Many here would differ as their investment strategy differs. I am here for 180p+ on the basis the appeal is successful or damaged significantly limited.

Until then I am interested in the performance of the box office and receiving updates from cineworld on admissions.

My average is 30p so whilst I’m 20% down, I can appreciate others may be nursing more paper losses. My advice is don’t get emotional and keep exercising patience. Institutional and inside investors are holding and have much invested. I have yet to see a TR1 with a significant reduced position.

Novice. With respect, do not get emotional. It is the worst thing you can do when investing or trading.

Understand that Nav is likely a 47 year old, middle aged trader. His source of income to sustain his family is from trading and attempting to push FUD. Right now, he is either experiencing crippling FOMO or is very nervous about his position which is likely short.

You have made your investment and should take comfort that prior to the suspension, Eurasia advertised it has not one but several suitors interested and one for an entire asset purchase.

Go over to the Petropavlovsk board to see real degenerate play outs from day traders. It will put things into context.

Rest easy, this is going to be a good outcome.

“ Eurasia Mining PLC (LON:EUA), a platinum group metals and gold producer, said it has received several proposals including one from a credible party for the potential acquisition of substantially all of the company's assets.
It added that it has now concluded its strategic review and formal sale process.”

Source: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/949358/eurasia-mining-announces-potential-asset-sale-949358.html

Morning LPD,

Like you, I see this as a 3 pronged attack.

1. Dispute the earlier judgement that Cineplex did not deviate from standard business practice. One could argue, Cineworld were then within their right of standard business practice to pull out of the Cineplex acquisition to save money and misconstrue that it was a standard business approach. It was not. Cineworld cited Cineplex breached not one but several business covenants.

2. Cineplex were never benefactors of synergies. That would be to the acquirer of their assets, namely Cineworld. Thus, behind lost transactions ($5.5m) there was no award to be granted to Cineplex.

If 1 and 2 don’t see reason for a successful appeal…

3. Any damages should be offset against current debt between entities which would significantly reduce any award (which would not be enforced and Cineplex would struggle to claim).

As I posted earlier, I am very pleased with the strategy and I believe Cineworld and their litigation team have got their act together and present a very good case to repeal the earlier judgement.

It is my belief Cineplex will try to negotiate out of court as the appeal from Cineworld reads very strong.

Great post, HNS. That is a great appeal that articulates the deviation of standard business practice and disputes the judgement on synergies.

Mooky has every right to be confident with that appeal and I am feeling very bullish about the outcome.

Great find. Also pleased that it reiterated what we know. The judgement was in favour of lost synergies and only $5m for transaction costs.

I believe Cineworld will have reported positive Q2 and early Q3 results by this time to establish the recovery and the appeal winning will be the icing on the cake for a great recovery to the share price. All IMO.

I am already picturing JohnnyCodswallop with a doggy-eared A4 pad (obligatory coffee ring on page 5) and a chewed up BIC pen counting the pedestrians and trying to discount Deliveroo riders. Comical gold.

We will know next week if a TR-1 is issued. I suspect a short has increased. They will have to cover eventually. They have likely hedged their position.

Remember, Cineworld reported a short interest as high as 15-16% back in Feb 2020 and the share price was 180-200p.

Johnny it is a shame you didn’t use the moniker, codswallop at the end of your username.

1. Your post is completely anecdotal. Did you really post that you sit looking at footfall from your flat high rise and you have established the habits of leisure habits as a result? I have secondary embarrassment from this statement.

2. 75% of the Cineworld business is US based. The U.K. represents just 13% of cinemas.

3. Amazon is seeing negative growth and has lost 30% YTD. They missed earnings and analysts have claimed the lockdown pandemic gains are being eroded away and many return to pre pandemic habits.

4. Cinema are recession proof and have history to support this. 80% of cinema goers are under the age of 45 years old. Peak demographics are 15-24 year olds who mostly live at home and have disposable income.

5. Streaming is reporting negative growth. Are you aware Netflix los $54bn market capitalisation and is on track to lose 2m more customers next month?

6. Studios are committed to theatrical first to reclaim production costs and appreciate the most profitable release strategy. Make the customer pay twice. Theatrical then for TV. You do not cannibalise the business model by reducing the experience to one outlet (television by passing theatrical).

7. Many bought in at 19p and sold at 100p+ so made more than the amount you claimed and have since re-bought in now.

8. “Woke rubbish” is a term used by Daily Fail readers. A survey in 2014 found the average age of its readers was 58, and it had the lowest demographic for 15- to 44-year-olds among the major British dailies. See point 4 on key demographics for cinema goers. If the content is woke, won’t that be coming on streaming and television eventually? So no one is going to watch movies because of your senior mindset? Flawed.

9. You are posting here for what? You sold and exit and made profit. Why have you returned? Agenda clear.

1. Net debt is $5bn and investors need to consider that $3.4bn (70%) was accrued by the Regal takeover in 2017/2018 which saw the cinema group attain 2nd largest in the world and a share price of 300p.

2. Whilst Q1 2022 has been lacklustre thus far ( the movie slate was not there post Spider-Man No Way Home), the summer months constitute 40% of an annual box office run; following Dr Strange MoM and with Top Gun Maverick, Thor, Jurassic Park, Nope, Bullet Train and a number of other movies lined up, there is enough to entice the peak demographic (which isn’t facing a living squeeze courtesy of living at their parents home rent free) and their disposable income to enjoy evenings and weekends out which will include cinemas. The US where 75% of the estate operates is culturally aligned to going to the movies and is something passed down generations. It is a social activity ingrained in American culture.

3. The Cineplex judgement is not enforced and is undergoing an appeal on the basis of lost synergies in favour of Cineplex which is where the majority of the award was granted. I believe Cineworld will succeed in appealing this on the grounds Cineplex were never going to be at the receiving end of synergies as does most of the industry who have reviewed the court judgement.

4. Lenders and landlords are aware that the vast property cinema footprint is instrumental to drive footfall to other commercial interests like bars, retail and of course restaurants. Retail parks would struggle to repurpose themselves even for residential applications (read: Hammersons and Leicester Debenhams) given they provide business for districts and councils who would be reluctant to sign off such planning permits. Also worth noting the U.K. Cineworld estate is just ~13% of the groups business with 75% in the US.

5. The streaming bubble has burst and churn rate has proven Morgan Stanley’s leisure analyst, Ed Young wrong. Viewing habits were modified during the pandemic but as with most equities and business who flourished during lockdown, they are now witnessing huge subscription and consumer loss as many return to pre-pandemic habits Inc leisure ones like cinema. Ed has only a 42% success rate and most of that was on the back of online gambling and William Hill who got bought out last year. https://www.tipranks.com/experts/analysts/ed-young

6. Insiders and institutional owners make up 72% of the shares held. Have you seen any TR-1 sales? I haven’t. If they are holding why would I as a private investor be spooked and sell?

7. The Cineworld board are incentivised thanks to a lucrative bonus scheme which must hit 180p for them to be awarded $200m+ and more if they achieve 360p. At the current share price, that is a great entry and return for many. My average is 30p so not quite as low as those who are fortunate to buy now but I’m content to keep buying and reducing if this continues to be sold off my market makers and algo trades.

This is fantastic work! Well done guys on speaking to Mooky and co afterwards. I am really encouraged with those responses.

Thanks for feeding back, Mountainous.

Expectations were set that commercially sensitive news would not be shared without a formal RNS.

If you could advise how the boards demeanour was, their body language and any hints that may have been shared on their next steps that would be great to read. They could be misinterpreted but as mentioned, we will have to wait for a formal RNS.

I am pleased to read that Mooky took the question on the appeal and reaffirmed his belief that it would be successful.

Can I join this circle jerk or do you have to be oblivious to the fact there is a global market sell off and Cine is just one of thousands of equities seeing a sell off?

It will be interesting to see if any TR-1 notices are issued with increased holdings or reduced holdings. So far, we have seen none during this global market sell off.

When the entire market is down, it is high risk to assume it will continue or if capitulation is reached and a spike comes.

Markets are significantly oversold at the moment hence I’ve been bought some Nasdaq EV stocks appreciating they could drop more.

For those with cash, they must be like a child in a sweet store.

Let me guess you diversified in Rolls, IAG, TUI, Russian miners and FANG and they have all done well and not seeing any fallout on the back of a global sell off, right? The losses are only seen in CINE, right?

This is not an enforced judgement and it is under appeal.

Next.

Brilliant, Bonkers.

This bottom feeder is so busy attempting to day trade, shilling one share, talking another down the next, I doubt he has made any gains at all.

Now he is posting he is not invested another made up story.

What is here posting in a share he doesn’t believe in? Certainly not an altruistic motive to help out fellow investors but to bend the narrative.

Let the market sell this off and the patient investor will carry on accumulating for a large pay day when it comes.

Just did another up myself, Bonkers.

The movie season is picking up and we have Top Gun and Jurassic Park to look forward to which will draw good admission.

I will also be looking at purchasing some tech stocks on the Nasdaq if they continue to decline today, too.

You would think Squib would know this given the amount of yellow priced sandwiches he likely eats from Morrisons.

The very concept of comparing a “saved” newsagent chain to that of the second largest cinema operator is baffling.

Agree Tegop.

It is the same scripted responses. It would not surprise me if the poster is a BOT merely used to disrupt and naively believing it can influence the share price.