Member Info for RS2002

The world is facing a semiconductor shortage and expects to navigate this crisis for a few more years.

It is well established that Gold (Au) metals are vital to the manufacture of compound semiconductor devices.

Those citing imminent bankruptcy are mistaken that whilst debt transfer may have taken place, it will involve a long drawn out legal process, navigating each others sovereign judicial before any judgement is afforded (should it reach that point). It is more likely that a new peace treaty will be drawn up before this materialises.

I am comfortable taking a position and demonstrating patience.

The ban is due to come into force shortly and will apply to NEWLY mined or refined gold.

It will NOT affect Russian-origin gold that has been PREVIOUSLY exported from Russia, the British government added.

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-live-kyiv-attack-murderous-cowardice-ambassador-says-johnson-mocks-putins-pecs-at-g7-summit-12541713?postid=4075767#liveblog-body

The ban is due to come into force shortly and will apply to NEWLY mined or refined gold.

It will NOT affect Russian-origin gold that has been PREVIOUSLY exported from Russia, the British government added.

Source: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-live-kyiv-attack-murderous-cowardice-ambassador-says-johnson-mocks-putins-pecs-at-g7-summit-12541713?postid=4075767#liveblog-body

How is TUI these days, iTurnip?

A lot are discussing 85% of 2019 REVENUES required.

I do not see this unless I am mistaken, so please correct me if so.

What I see is an ask for a MINIMUM of 80% ADMISSIONS.

Cineworld advised in their March 2022 RNS that they required either:

A. 3 months of 2019 ADMISSIONS at 80% (not 85%)
B. Not to exceed 35% of the RCF

To BYPASS the covenant test.

Cast aside Jan-Mar (Q1) and await the ADMISSIONS for Apr-Jun (Q2) and I am hopeful this 3 month period or quarter has picked up enough ADMISSIONS to meet the 2019 threshold.

Should this not happen, then REVENUE will come into play and Cineworld need to satisfy a 5x ND/EBITDA.

The Net Debt (ND) to Earnings Before Interest Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) ratio is a debt ratio that shows how many years it would take for a company to pay back its debt.

“The minimum liquidity covenant (which will not apply if the Group reaches 80% of ADMISSIONS levels for a 3-month comparable period in 2019)”

Source: https://investegate.co.uk/cineworld-group-plc--cine-/rns/preliminary-results/202203170700051081F/

Good find, BHA.

The admissions are progressively improving as more become comfortable, crave and seek out out of home experiences.

Some will cite the cost is too high for a family but the reality is most who attend will get a single ticket and as posted several times before, peak demographics are 15-24 year olds who have disposable income as they don’t bear the responsibility of the cost of living, courtesy of living rent free with their parents.

Spot on HNS.

Cineworld have averted protests and business disruption.

Well done to them.

I want punters through their doors and hopefully more from their community spending money on concessions at Cineworld. I don’t care what their race, religion or makeup is.

As investors, you have to detach yourself emotionally. That said, there are some posters who are pearl clutching, feigning outrage about the 8 Cineworld multiplexes not playing this, not appreciating the bigger picture (pardon the pun) or hoping to embellish this news to talk down the share price which is futile as posts here are only used in-conjunction with Algo trades from funds to push the price down and nudge retail to surrender their shares. Our share price is dwindling because of macro market conditions. Go over to Poly or Petropavlovsk boards to see what folly is happening there as the desperado day traders switch their narrative at the drop of a hat to support their trade.

Sadly I don’t have a news source but it was verbally stated on the news, that 8 Cineworld multiplexes had the movie pegged to screen. The 20 locations were likely other competitors like Vue and perhaps some independent ones.

Amc/Odeon chose not to screen the movie.

I am not interested in the politics or religious aspects of the movie or protest, I am concerned as a shareholder about business operations of Cineworld and in my opinion, they did the right thing pulling it.

If it was a mainstream big budget Hollywood movie across hundreds of locations, I would want it to play. Fortunately, it was not. It was just 8 and I would rather have this community attend Cineworld and forgo Vue.

Bonkers,

1. The movie was to play at a total of eight (8) U.K. cinemas

2. Cineworld pulled the movie whereas Vue have taken the stance to continue playing it.

So, revenue from the movie would have been minimal.

Cineworld have safeguarded the interest of their business, ensured they have not alienated a paying demographic at a time of recovery.

Cineworld have also courted free PR in the process.
What is the saying, any PR is…

Great find.

Established studios like WB, Disney and Paramount have thrown their weight behind traditional theatrical following earlier streaming first experiments. They simply did not work and discouraged ancillary spend. If you watch a movie on TV first why watch it again, whereas the cinema encourages a second watch and thus monitizes better.

Squib is holding on for dear life to the Cineplex arbitration because that is all he has.

The core business and further more the business model has been vindicated with Strange 2, Maverick and we have Jurassic Park, Nope, Black Phone, Lightyear and a number of more films to come.

The appeal is yet to be heard and as others have said, there will be the matter of enforcing any such judgement. Synergies were not to the benefit of the acquired, but to the acquirer.

Squib talks about October as a definitive date.

The fact of the matter is at any point between now and October, parties can sit down and work out an out of court settlement but first, the priority is to see the admissions and ancillary revenue streams recover, legitimising the business model which studios have only recently thrown their support at by abandoning day date and acknowledging that cinema release is an effective way of mitigating piracy and maximising return on budgets. I won’t go down the streaming fatigue and high churn rate reported and coming from Netflix because that has been talked about enough.

I would call those trying to persuade LTH to sell, to satisfy their margins for short term trading - bottom feeders, every day of the week.

I would suggest you propose that question to 72% of the majority shareholders who are insiders and institutional investors. You see, just 28% of CINE is held by private investors. Beyond one institution reducing their stock by 8% I have seen no other TR-1 issued.

I am holding an average of 30p. Some may have acquired at a higher price, averaged down, some may have been fortunate to have acquired an average of just 23p. That is their prerogative to manage risk and investment exposure for suitable reward based on their strategy.

What I do not do is tell people to sell up or buy. Why? Because I have no interest being a bottom feeder ramping or deramping for short term gain.

The reason I hold long term is because the insiders have a great incentive to return the share price to its prepandemic price.

Up to £208 million in share awards will be dispensed to senior executives under a proposed long-term incentive plan (LTIP), which will dispense awards if the company’s share price returns to 190p within three years. Cineworld’s shares were priced at 197p each prior to the pandemic. If this level is achieved, senior executives will share an award of £104 million. CEO Mooky and his brother and deputy, Israel, will be eligible to receive £33 million each. Should the share price hit an upper cap of 380p, the executives’ award will be doubled to £208 million, with £66 million for the Greidinger brothers.

At this share price, with those proposed returns, it is worth the wait.

The cognitive dissonance that day traders have on this BB is sometimes remarkable to bear witness to. So consumed chasing their daily 2-5% they remain ignorant that LTH pay no attention to such short term volatility. They are in this for the long term.

If investors were to entertain the premise that Russia would continue to be annexed from global commerce following a ceasefire and newly drawn peace treaty, one should consider:

a. Any likely treaty will draw input from NATO and global economies to see sanctions relax before Russia sign the dotted line

b. Should any treaty not offer any such graces for Russia to continue to trade, it should be reminded that Poly is a London listed company with mining operations in Kazakhstan as well. It is not an exclusively Russia mined outfit.

Expanding on Kazakhstan, Poly reported its Q1 2022 results demonstrating high gold output yields from its two mining operations there: Kyzyl and Vavara. In fact both of those mining facilities produced, cumulatively 139 koz out of 372 koz for their entire assets (Russia included) for the quarter. If we were to entertain the idea that Russian assets would be discounted, as farcical as that sounds, Kazakhstan is delivering to Poly ~40% of its gold output which would not be subject to sanctions.

For context, 139 koz or thousand ounces at a rate of $1800/ounce would be $250m. That is for the quarter so Poly is standing to deliver $1bn worth of Gold for the entire year subject to no business interruption in Kazakhstan.

Poly’s current market cap is £1.1bn or $1.38bn. It’s current P/E is 1.55 and as such, it stands to recover significantly.

So big-blue, you may have spread FUD historically over at the IAG board, but your argument is flawed here.

Good find.

Glad Mooky addressed the alleged shortage and said Cineworld is managing supply so far.

Glad Quest also asked about the supply of movies. It was no fault of Cineworld that the year started light. Investors need to keep in mind that summer is where 40% of the years box office is taken so it was natural for studios to defer big titles to now. Also covid has subdued across western territories but it would have certainly impacted production of movies a year ago. Post editing and getting the said movies ready for distribution would have certainly reduced the sheer number compared to 2019 for example. What we should see now for 2023 is a lot more movies by quantity coming, given 2022 has not seen the same restrictions as before.

Glad Mooky is bullish but it would have been nice to hear from him on how the relationship is with landlords and lenders too.

If some good comes out of this development, I hope members of their community now give patronage to Cineworld as opposed to Vue who have chosen to continue playing this movie.

The market is not looking very optimistic to fashion retailers, least of all fast fashion ones.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/ted-baker-says-preferred-bidder-does-not-plan-make-offer-fashion-chain-2022-06-07/

*trick

Netflix lost $54bn in market cap.

The inherent problem they have is they are a one truck pony.

There is a reason, Warren Buffet/Berkshire Hathaway invested in Paramount. They knew streaming alone would not be sustainable but they wanted to invest in a media company with MULTIPLE revenue streaming including traditional theatrical and ancillary sales.

Netflix is now having to pivot and look at password sharing lockdown (entirely voluntary according to Latin American subscribers who are piloting it and failing) and advertising the very benefit it plugged as its USP.

Much delusion to follow if anyone is sleep walking into Netflix reporting a 2m+ subscriber loss at next earnings June/July.

I would rather invest in a company which stands to recover, even 70-80% of 2019 levels than one that has peaked and sees only negative growth like Netflix.