Member Info for RS2002

Imagine, commenting that the current SP of 20p, from a pre-covid SP of 200p (90% drop) is considered a spike.

Enough basis for an involuntary commitment some would argue...

Good to see some positive movement in the share price as we return to the 20s.

Make no mistake, Squib has been lurking this BB or using another alias; this company and its share price lives rent free in his head. I am sure this is also the case for many private investors on the side lines who would love to go in but have all their capital tied up in other investments, namely Boohoo which are nursing a defeated share price - Cineworld is not unique, so until macro market conditions improve, we have to endure his nonsense but at this point it is so repetitive it is just noise that most ignore.

Key points to remember concerning Cineworld:

1. ~70% of shares are owned by institutional investors and insiders
2. ~70% of the debt, $3.4bn (pre-IRFS 16) was acquired through the Regal takeover in 2018/2019
3. Cineworld has navigated what many believe is the worst of the pandemic and the box office is recovering - empirical data proves this. Lenders have afforded flexibility in the past, to the tune of 10x leverage, ND/EBITDA ration (Dec 2021)
4. The Cineplex judgement is not enforced and is undergoing an appeal process - at any time between now and October, we can expect an out of court settlement or the advancement through the courts where the illogical synergy claim to Cineplex will be challenged
5. Mooky and the BoD have a lucrative bonus scheme that only kicks in when the share price returns to 190p, that is 10x the current share price.

Good luck, all and remain positive.

Was just about to post the same.

This pipeline that services 40% of gas for Europe won’t be coming online Thursday which is a daunting prospect for European leaders who have only collected 65% of gas reserves from a 90% target ahead of winter.

Could this be the final straw that forces Biden’s hand to sign off more development in Alaska to 88E benefit, inconsequential to ESG targets?

It seems some have forgotten that the Cine share price is influenced by a number of external factors, beyond the judgement from Canada that is not enforced against U.K. listed, Cineworld PLC.

1. Netflix have their Q2 earnings tomorrow. All eyes on churn (subscriber loss)
2. Box Office Mojo for US domestic box office is demonstrating a sold recovery, not quite 2018 but ~80-85% for the past month
3. Rival cinema operator, AMC Entertainment (AMC) is releasing its earnings report for fiscal Q2 2022 on 4th August and all eyes will be on their recovery data
4. Many analysts have been quoted as saying the Cineplex judgement can be negotiated out of court and why not? It is in the interest of both parties to resolve.
5. Eyes on macro market conditions specifically the conflict in Europe.

I will end this message with two proverbs:

“There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”

“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”

- Sun Tzu

That could aptly apply to Putin/Zelensky and Cineworld/Cineplex.

If you needed any more evidence that, short term, the CINE share price was being held back, look no futher than todays trades:

# Trades 660
Vol. Sold 2,181,155
Sold Value £399,306.61
Vol. Bought 1,866,841
Bought Value £342,589.03

~15% less buys than sales, yet the share closed up.

I already am in Boohoo, Ocean. Average 104p. A small holding of 5,000 shares only fortunately...

As my favourite Boohoo poster would say "Ka-ching"! :-)

Institutions have had 2 years since March 2020 to sell and even during the peaks of 100-120p. They did not. They tells you everything you need to know. They are not day traders like most of those attempting to talk this share down, they are holding considerable amounts of their clients money, of which has been invested in a number of equities, CINE included.

Depends entirely on each investor and their duration. Many retail are content holding 12 months+.

Do you believe the ~70% held by insiders and institutional owners are only holding for < 4 months?

Small volume once more. Very few are budging. I’m staying put.

# Trades 810
Vol. Sold 2,692,383
Sold Value £464,389.34
Vol. Bought 2,119,873
Bought Value £364,473.97

July 19 we have the Netflix results. If they demonstrate a higher churn rate it will boost theatrical.

Forecaster, re-read your own shilling over at BOO.

Forecaster
Posted in: BOO
Posts: 98
Price: 52.66
No Opinion
RE: If you don’t need the money30 Jun 2022 09:17

I think what you have experienced is what many more seasoned investors have experienced, before realising how the process works. We've all been there, watching a sp reduce, only to find it recover well and kicking ourselves. Yes it takes discipline, but the key point is recognising and resisting the emotion, which is what the market relies on. All you need to do is look at many many of the companies that suffered when Covid appeared, and then came the recovery. What we now see is primarily the impact of the situation in Ukraine and the myriad of sanctions on Russia driving inflation and impact on the market. And it's these market downturns that are the precise moment to be capitalizing imo. Accumulating stock when it's on sale and cheap.

The pot calling the kettle black comes to mind, right?

AllKap, the $8-9bn is IRFS-16, factoring future lease costs.

Mooky has stated, the debt is in fact $5bn of which $3.4bn was acquired pre covid and pre lockdown. So debt has grown grown some $1.5bn but this was during prolonged lockdown periods.

I agree on your basis of inflation and cinemas have done well historically during down periods during recessions and if we see one this year, I see no reason why we will not perform well again.

Cinema going is a cultural experience and enough have returned to re-establish the habit of going frequently/returning.

We have less movies this year because Covid hurt production as well. This year with no restrictions should see plenty of movies made which suggests 2023 should have the number of releases to pre-covid if not more.

*has

Simple question for you: Forecaster.

Looking at the empirical data, is CINE performing better 2022 vs 2021?

Answer: YES

Looking at the empirical data, is BOO performing better 2022 vs 2021?

Answer: NO

This is why it is come down from all highs of 413p to 55p.

If the recovery of CINE continues whilst it also navigates arbitration with CINEPLEX, it stands to recover the share price over time.

So in summary, apples are selling, potatoes are not.

Check out https://www.shein.co.uk/

Best of all, free returns. Unlike Boohoo who now want to charge their customers £1.99 for a return. How do you try on clothes when the fit could be completely wrong and then expect to charge the customer for a return?

I suspect many will be damaging the clothes and feigning it was damaged in transit to avoid postage costs. The Kamani family have not through this through.

Meanwhile, no supply chain or return issues for Cineworld.

It is there in black and white. The bonus incentive plan. Many investors are aware that Cineworld has repeatedly recovered.

“ Mooky Greidinger, and his brother and deputy, Israel, will receive awards worth £33m each.
The proposed long-term incentive plan will reward the company’s senior executive team if Cineworld’s share price bounces back to 190p within three years. If this level – which is close to its pre-pandemic level of 197p – is reached, bosses will share £104m. If the share price reaches the upper cap of 380p, executive directors would between them be awarded shares worth a total of £208m.”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/25/cineworld-bosses-bonus-scheme-worth-up-to-208m-gets-green-light

I am interested to know how the market will react to this news segment. We have some positive data from how Britain and Europe is performing, thanks to the VUE piece.

“Since its pandemic-induced troubles, Vue's performance has rebounded strongly.

One source said that every one of its markets exceeded the three-year average for admissions in the last week, while it also marked the first time that Vue had recorded consecutive weeks over 1.8m customers since reopening.

Performance has been buoyed by the arrival of films such as Top Gun: Maverick, starring Tom Cruise, and Minions: The Rise of Gru.

Over the last four weeks, it has seen an 18% increase in admissions versus the three-year average.”

Nothing more than distraction techniques to shift the focus away from the news that lenders for VUE are keen to acquire it. Settle the existing ~£400m debt and pay the existing holders a further £600m for a cinema chain considerable smaller in less lucrative territories.

Squib knows the market will wake up to this and wants to shift the focus away. He needs to be more concerned about Shein decimating Boohoo and their paltry £1.99 return fee to subsidise returns.

Ocean says the Vue lenders are taking the company for peanuts. They are taking on ~£400m debt and then the article suggests paying an additional ~£600m to the existing holding funds, for Vue which has ONLY 228 sites. It recognises the market cap of Vue at ~£1bn on this basis.

How many sites does CINE have?

It operates in 10 countries with 751 sites and 9,189 screens.

So, appreciating the market exposure is much stronger in America where CINE has 75% of its business, if we were to do a crude site for site count basis, we can say CINE is 3x larger than VUE (751 sites in more lucrative regions vs 228 sites in Europe where box office doesn’t perform as strongly). One then realises if lenders are prepared to PAY £1bn for VUE, how much does that value CINE, which is 3x larger and has a market cap of just £270m?

CINE may have more debt but it should get this back under control with support from lenders who are clearly able to recognise the value of theatrical and this is supported by VUE’s own lenders taking interest.

Vue lenders aren’t defaulting on them. They are keen to acquire the company from the fund who manages the Canadian teacher pensions pot. Clearly the recognise the recovery is underway.

“Since its pandemic-induced troubles, Vue's performance has rebounded strongly.

One source said that every one of its markets exceeded the three-year average for admissions in the last week, while it also marked the first time that Vue had recorded consecutive weeks over 1.8m customers since reopening.

Performance has been buoyed by the arrival of films such as Top Gun: Maverick, starring Tom Cruise, and Minions: The Rise of Gru.

Over the last four weeks, it has seen an 18% increase in admissions versus the three-year average.”