Member Info for RS2002

Most brokerages are defaulting to the scrip dividend. It was successful for me as I was able to get my average down to 16p before I sold at 40p.

I was able to buy back in at 19p and I’m holding for the long term now.

HNS_77 is in witness protection - pending the outcome of the appeal! /ramp

Warner Bros Discovery have $55bn of debt to reduce.

Jason Kilar, the former CEO disrupted the market when he green lit ‘Project Popcorn’ which put the entire 2021 theatrical movie slate on day date. Analysts like Morgan Stanley’s Ed Young were too quick to jump on that tactical approach and the best thing for theatrical and Cineworld is the new CEO, David Zaslav u-turning that strategy now.

Zaslav was quoted saying:

"Our conclusion is expensive direct-to-streaming movies, in terms of how people are consuming them on the platform, how often people buy a service for them, how they get nourished over time, is no comparison to what happens when you launch a film in the theaters. This idea of expensive films going direct to streaming, we can't find an economic value for it, and so we're making a strategic shift."

I want to see WBD get 25-35 tentpoles out for 2023/2024 and we will have an excellent slate of movies.

Cineworld and all cinemas are suffering from a reduction in content to play. This was expected as production has been hurt. With more movies being green lit and WBD endorsing theatrical first, should contribute to Cineworld’s recovery.

Good liquidity and near break even for the quarter. Projections look good for continued recovery. Demand is almost pre-covid. Good time for a top up for me personally.

It was posted earlier that the cancellation of HBO MAX Batgirl and the desire to stop cannibalising theatrical for streaming subscriptions over at Warner Bros Discovery was going to be good news for cinema and Cineworld.

Today at the WBD earnings the recently appointed CEO, David Zaslav has doubled down on his push to make it clear: theatrical first and with an appropriate window.

This is fantastic news and whilst we await our Q2 results which will be positive and an improvement year on year, the market is going to begin to wake up to the industry reverting back to a more traditional distribution strategy.

Chin-up, Cineworld LTH. This should encourage competitors to join them.

Source: https://deadline.com/2022/08/warner-bros-discovery-ceo-david-zaslav-theatrical-windows-1235085460/

It seems ASOS another disastrous fast fashion brand has taken Cineworld’s third spot as well.

Tomorrow we will get to see AMCs Q2 results and it should set an expectation for Cineworld’s recovery.

Very encouraging news that the WB HBO Max made for TV movie is being scrapped. It has cost $70m but the realisation from WB is they need to invest more for bigger and theatrical.

“ Warner Bros insiders are insisting the decision to axe the film was not driven by quality, but the desire for the studio's slate of DC films to be at a blockbuster scale, according to the US entertainment news website Variety.

The studio has made a corporate decision to refocus its priorities back to cinematic features.”

Don’t underestimate how significant this news is for theatrical and in turn, Cineworld.

Source: https://variety.com/2022/film/news/batgirl-not-released-warner-bros-hbo-max-1235331897/

"You do not need to take any action, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD Evraz shares in your account on your behalf and maintain an accurate record of your shareholding."

No panic.

A lot will say 85% of 2019 levels for US admissions when this was a base case forecast. The minimum liquidity covenant test, which would not apply if the Group reached 80% of admission levels for a 3-month comparable period in 2019, was the primary target. Q2 may or may not have achieved this, we need to see blended admission for RoW as well as US and Europe. I would imagine a waiver was received.

What we know is 68% YoY is a positive step and I would like to see 80% YoY come December.

Year to Year comparison for 2019 vs 2022 is beginning to paint a nice picture.

2022 to date = $4787.8m
2019 to date = $6947.9m

68% to date

August 2019 did $837.6m
September 2019 did $686.7m
October 2019 did $781.6m
November 2019 did $959m
December 2019 did $1148m

We may have a slow August/September but I believe Q4 will pick-up given the movie slate.

Keep the faith LTH.

Merely posting that there are still movies. It is no secret that the number of releases are half what they were in 2019. Covid hampered production and some lower tier movies were sent to streaming.

Summer months amount to 40% of the yearly take and I think June and July have faired well - the movies I posted below should keep things going along, together with movies in July.

I am not overly concerned as I am looking at the blended average scored by year end which should be ~80% once the autumn and winter months pick-up and we get big titles like Black Adam, Black Panther 2 and Avatar 2.

I'm not ramping but I'm not doomspreading either.

05/08 - Weekend 1
- Bullet Train
- Easter Sunday
- Bodies, Bodies, Bodies

12/08 - Weekend 2
- Emily The Criminal
- Fall

19/08 - Weekend 3
- Beast

26/08 - Weekend 4
- The Invitation
- Three Thousand Years Of Longing

This would certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons. If both business are seeing recovery, perhaps they have come to realise the only benefactors long term would be lawyers.

Cineworld investors need to keep in mind, this is not an enforced judgement and appeals can take years.

Go over to Rockhopper and look up the Ombrina Mare arbitration. It has been ongoing since 2017. Five years and not a penny paid.

In that time both business can expect to see a full box office recovery and would benefit having clarity which the market would look at favourably.

Date Broker Recomm. Old target price New target price Notes
05/07/2022 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 40.00p 40.00p

JP Morgan reiterated 40p target short term (with no news of box office recovery/Q2 earnings/arbitration with Cineplex) so we know this is significantly undervalued at the moment.

PANR up 30% and 88E remains flat? Let the MMs hold this back. WIth over 35 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves and a potential 100 trilion unconfirmed, in the North Slope of Alaska, it is only a matter of time before the market wakes up.

There are two other movies playing august:

1. Lionsgate Fall - 12/08
2. Universal Beast - 19/08

Both should do well.

Good post, HNS. Alboumphoto will be telling us what recommendation his postman is giving next. Sheer desperation.

IAG results have shown them return to profit for Q2. I expect TUI to be reporting the same.
Like others, I'm nursing a high average of 260p so will have to be patient but I expect it will come evenutally and be back to his 300s.

Considering the slate has been limited, the performance has been excellent and touch wood, we have not seen the resurgence of omicron or another variant. Consumers are returning to habits and Hammerson today announced footfall is 90% to retail which we know is also where multiplexes exists in the U.K.

Next year, 2023 should have significantly more movies to play as nothing has disrupted production this year.