Member Info for RS2002

I want to understand why the previous thread with this posted was removed.

Someone clearly wasn’t happy with that posted!

Source: https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B15FWH70/

There was a thread titled shorts reduced, posted yesterday that has disappeared for some reason.

I thought I would post my comment again so Retail Investors can appreciate the current challenge shorters like New Holland Capital LLC face.

There is the matter of them requiring 32,058,000 (32m) shares to close their position completely and realise profit.

This was posted yesterday and rather crude but it illustrates the position:

- 1,370,000,000 (1.37bn) CINE shares in issue

New Holland Capital LLC
=====================
CINEWORLD GROUP 0.63% 23 Nov 2020
Share Price at the time = 55p
Shares borrowed = 8,631,000
Value of shares borrowed = £4.7m

Position taken: CINEWORLD GROUP 2.42% 24 Nov 2020
Share Price at the time = 59p
Shares borrowed = 24,523,000
Value of shares borrowed = £14.4m (acquired a further 1.79% shares)

Total shares acquired = 33,154,000 (33.1m)
Total value of shares borrowed= £19.1m in 2 days (Nov 2020)

Recent Reduction from New Holland Capital LLC
=========================================
CINEWORLD GROUP 2.34% -0.08% 20 Jul 2022
Share Price at the time = 19p
Shared bought = 1,096,000
Cost = £208k to reduce their position

New Holland Capital LLC still need to cover shares borrowed to the value of £18.8m and to achieve such, need 32,058,000 (32m) shares which at 21p right now, would cost £6.7m.

- We know the current daily volume of shares traded is around 3m shares of which 1.5/2m is bought.
- New Holland Capital LLC have a potential gross profit of = £12.1m.
- Let us say in two years, they paid 5% interest on the shares so £950k.
- Net profit of = £11.2m potential if they can close at 21p - hence the sooner they close, the sooner they can realise profit before share price edges up to 40-50p.

At any time, we could have a news drop that "Cineworld and Cineplex agree out of court settlement" or "Netflix sign agreement with AMC and Regal to play Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery in theaters for 45 days" which would certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons.

So, New Holland Capital may have paper profit but this is not realised yet until short covering is done.

With a reduced float of shares available (thanks, Tegop for sharing: https://iborrowdesk.com/report/CINE.LN) and borrowing costs increasing (2/3% to 13%), it is in the funds interest to acquire shares and maximise profits before Q2 earnings I believe as they should be positive and further demonstrate the recovery in the business.

The Comic Con event has generated a lot of interest and from what I have read this is a trilogy so a nice 3 party franchise that should start in March 2023 and see a new movie each year to 2025.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/entertainment-arts-62261590
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiMinixSXII

Many congratuations, anewman.

Data Forensics is a very lucrative field within commericial law, servicing FCA s166/Skilled Persons Review as well as the other industries it can be applied to.

Best of luck to you.

Morning Strike, so glad I managed to top-up in the 17s, I was about to post the same 29% up in that time.
Even now at 22p the share price has all the risks factored and from a risk vs reward perspective, for me, personally, is a great share to top-up or buy into.

Take a look at SNAP which along with NFLX and you begin to ask yourself, investing in these digital companies with further negative growth expected and such artifical valuation poses a greater risk than getting into a business with a proven model that is ripe for recovery.

I don’t endorse “The Fool”, I merely post it as you and your boiler room love to cite them to support your deramps.

"I added the business to my portfolio. The shares are down 70% in the past year, but they’re up 16.7% in the last week. At the time of writing, they’re trading at 20p."

"...have had it tough over the past two years. While they’re definitely not out of the woods yet, there are indications that they’re beginning to recover. I’ll therefore [be]... topping up my holding in Cineworld to lower my average weighted price. "

Source: https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/07/21/here-are-2-stocks-ready-to-bounce-back/

Was it NOFEAR? @ Tom

IP, I believe another rocket emoji is long over-due!

Releases 12th August and the trailer should entice teenagers and hopefully more girls (both protagonists female) to return to the cinema more frequently. Important that movies attract a wide demographic as Top Gun Maverick has hopefully achieved.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSspRSGc4Dk

Worth noting that Nope opens in the US in 2 days (22/07) where as UK cinemas won't see the movie until 12/08. Granted Cineworld have 75% of their cinemas in the US, no grumbles from me.

That is true, antmoss44 but when you consider the resurgence of Covid (Omicron), Cineplex arbitration and macro-market conditions (Russia/Ukaine and raising inflation), Cine has been beaten down from 100-120p.

I previously sold at 104p, but I'm back in and I believe if the risk that hangs over Cineworld resolves, there is no reason on this occasion for the share price to recover significantly - particularly when you factor the proposed US listing to increase its exposure amongst a wider PI investor community.

Thanks, FI for posting that correction - that is true, the Long-term Incentive Plan (LTIP) states, that no awards will be granted in 2022 or 2023, but a one-off LTIP makes the executive directors and managers eligible for share allocations if the share price initially doubles to 130p no later than 2024. A lower price, and nothing is granted. At 130p, new shares will be created equivalent to 1 per cent of those already in issue (so proposed 1% dilution of the 1.3bn shares), of which the Greidinger brothers will each receive almost a third, worth £5.6 million. The team’s eligibility rises on a sliding scale to 4 per cent for a price of 190p and then reaches a maximum at 380p, the value to each brother would be worth £65 million, the maximum under the scheme. Shareholders will foot the bill - in theory, the creation of all these new shares would dilute the share price from 380p to 365p (4% dilution).

I am inclined to believe that Mooky and Israel will hold until the share price recovers significantly to retrieve the maximum award IMO.

Try adding a 0 to the end of that 10p (100p) would be my re-rate upon a successful out of court settlement/agreement brokered with Cineplex.

I will leave it with Cineworld and their legal team to guide all investors through this, though.

No rush for me. The box office is recovering and the business model is proven. The market is aware of this, too.

Squib, you are embarrassing yourself further.

Beta has stated, if you proceed to include the lease liabilities for Cineworld and quote $8.9BN, then you should do the same for AMC Enterainment who are quoted as having $10bn in debt, when you factor their lease liabilities as well.

"Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation is the debt and capital lease obligation due more than 12 months in the future. AMC Entertainment Holdings's Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2022 was $10,150 Mil."

Source: https://www.gurufocus.com/term/Long-Term+Debt/NYSE:AMC/Long-Term-Debt--Capital-Lease-Obligation/AMC-Entertainment-Holdings

The bottom line is:

- Cineworld have $5bn debt (pre-IRFS16) which does not factor the on-going lease due for rent
- AMC too have $5bn debt excluding on-going lease rent

There are ~25 tent poles that are claiming to command $5.8bn US domestic next year. That is plenty for Cine to pay down debt given they are the second largest in US.

Source: https://www.imdb.com/list/ls560955422/

The short interest would take a few days to reflect. Remember shorts have been as high as 16% (Feb 2020) when the share price was trading at 200p.

Many will be flippant to concessions like popcorn but as a business the margins are high.

Multiple the 790 cinemas, Cineworld have globally and consider that the mark-up for popcorn can be as high as 1500%. That is a nice earner.

"We found that Cineworld’s small bag of popcorn had an eye-watering mark-up of 1500%."

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/1ty0bQlZXsgTwbhFVCyzNl6/mark-ups-popcorn-and-parking

Keep in mind that the original premiered Dec 2009. That was 12/13 years ago. You have a huge audience who will want to watch the original and Disney are re-releasing the first in September. Expect pandemonium and hype to build up prior to the second.

Cineworld made 20% of their income - some $500m through "Other Revenue" which was mostly made up of Advertisment revenue.

The good news is, the market is saying that advertisment spending is going to recover to 2019 (pre-covid) levels before the end of this year.

We are all considering admissions and concessions, but don't forget about that sizeable $500m passive income which is paid, irrespective of bums on seats.

Source: https://www.thedrum.com/news/2022/01/14/cinema-spend-near-2019-levels-almost-every-advertiser-returns