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Netflix Q2 Subscriber Losses Could Be Worse Than Forecast, Analyst Warns!

They lost 200,000 customers following Q1 earnings and the stock price tanks 75%.

They are prediciting a further 2m customer loss, but analysts believe it could be far worse.

More evidence that Streaming (contrary to Morgan Stanley's, Ed Young who wears a his 37% success badge proudly) is not going to be the nail in the coffin for theatrical.

If their subscriptions loss ("churn") is greater than 2m, I am expecting Netflix to drop significantly and it should be a boost for Cine and AMC.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-earnings-subscribers-51657126815

Odd you post that small volume is a concern here at CINE, yet when the net difference is 500k shares between sales and buys over on BooHoo you are posting "Ka-ching".

Could it be that Shein has you tossing and turning at night?

That US domestic box office for June has posted an 85% recovery on 2019 and has demonstrated, audiences are coming back. What about Boohoo? Introducing a £1.99 token return charge is not going to cover all those Leicester sweat-shop garments being returned, is it?

The volume is low because retail isn't selling - as your ramping colleague, Forecaster posted over on Boohoo - macro market conditions have driven almost all equities down and most investors have their cash tied-up so funds don't permit them to buy. I am sure if they did have funds they would buy, but that isn't my objective to come and ramp, merely to warn others of cheap tactics employed by those trying to talk a share down or encourage retail to sell to assist funds to cover.

Imagine being so desperate, you have to post thread after thread to bump your feeble de-ramp?

I feel for Ocean. His paymasters must not be happy.
They are competing with retail and other funds, daily. Just a meagre 2-3 million shares traded and they need to acquire and all this while they are paying daily fees for the stock they borrowed and sold.

The Alaskan congressional delegation has the backing of Biden to expand the North Slope and 88E stands to re-rate significantly. A great buy at this price.

These de-rampers refuse to acknowledge that ~70% of the debt (pre-IRFS 16) CINE holds was acquired 2018/2019 when they took on Regal.

Covid/lockdowns hurt all stocks in leisure and hospitality - if lenders defaulted on all of them, what purpose would that achieve?

Let them carry on with their noise - the volume isn't there. It is ALGO trades doing most of it to spoof the market and encourage a drop hoping to fish for retail sell offs.

The earnings will do the talking for us.

I did state, to-date.

Yes, we are in the infancy of Q3 but these are metrics that demonstrate Maverick and other movies have helped to encourage demographics to return and we can continue to monitor and report on them.

More sqeaky bum time for the funds and their shorting crew.

Data from Box Office Mojo reveals Quarter 3 to-date, 2022 is leading 2019.

According to Box Office Mojo data, US domestic box office numbers for Q3 (July to September) reached a total gross of $536.81 million by July 11. 2019 (pre-pandemic) in comparison reached $439.33m.

https://www.thestreet.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700/MTkwODQxNTE5NzMxNjQ4MDgx/b883a46c-84ad-49bd-9a71-3b70582a7616.webp

The recovery is clear to see and lenders and landlords will recognise this, too.

Given that one fund needs the volume of shares to buy, they will want to increase their FUD on boards to weaken retail hands.

We have 2 months before the RNS drops so we can expect noise for 8 weeks.

My apologies.

I had incorrectly stated 24% not 2.4%.

Thanks, LTHCine.

So that one fund would need 32m shares to close it.

That would be 1-2 months.

Thanks for the pointer!

I was reviewing the top funds holding the largest short interest.

New Holland Capital LLC 2.42% (332m shares)
Whitebox Advisors LLC 2.36% (324m shares)

If we prod along with just 1.2-2m shares sold a day, it would take New Holland (332/1.2) 276 days to amass the volume they need to close their positions. With just 253 trading days in the year, they will be looking to acquire well into 2023. By which point:

- Q2 results due demonstrating a good recovery
- Appeal decision successful or partially successful in reducing the judgement/payment plan agreed
- US listing news could land

All this time, this one fund will be competing with others to acquire shares.

Tiny volume today and the derampers are out trying to push FUD to acquire shares on the cheap by encouraging retail to sell. You can see why they are so desperate. They will keep this up until the RNS drops 22/09/22. So we can expect another 8 weeks of noise from them. My advice to retail investors is hold on to your shares. Letting them go will only allow the funds to acquire and then close their shorts before 22/09 when Cineworld reveal admission, concessions and advertisement revenue is positive.

13/07/22

# Trades 463
Vol. Sold 1,266,868
Sold Value £227,993.67
Vol. Bought 1,894,814
Bought Value £342,383.08

Just 3.1m shares traded out of 1373m. Translation 0.002% of total shares traded.

Shaz, don’t get emotional. It is highly likely you are chatting to the same individuals or crew with either their deramp or ramp alias. What is amusing is the volume just is not there for the funds to close their positions. Let them sweat and let the box office recovery do the talking.

Good post, Wellington99. The writing is on the wall. Theatrical recovery is clear to see. Right now, with geopolitcs at play and energy increases, supply chain blockages, cinemas stand to do very well. Escapism and a proven business model. I am very happy to wait this out as are the majority of investors who are insiders and institutions (owning 73% of the stock).

Rival, AMC have just stated they have witness the best weekend in terms of admission revenue. 12% improved over 2019 as well. The recovery is there and cineworld shareholders just need to carry on exercising patience.

https://twitter.com/CEOAdam/status/1546528990495744000?s=20&t=xnb7IC3kuDFJ1gMw4KBQXw

Yes, Yuri. Nothing to do with sanctions denying said payments, right?

Entirely predictable. The market knows this is oversold and with the drop in sterling against the dollar increasing each week, ahead of any likely (certain?) down period/recession, gold is THE hedge right now.

Who needs BoxOffice Mojo to tell us how the North American market is doing (June 2022 recovers 85% to June 2019) where Cineworld operate 75% of their business, when we have a AlbumPhoto to give us that great insight.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTLITks0ZyM6cE7JsgSXGsxxK5SpE31K3yNiQMlQF4emQ_lZCCq

There was a drop. It was over at SIMEC Atlantis Energy Limited. Ticker, LON: SAE.
Squib was ramping it yesterday. I suspect he got burnt on that one, too.

He is only here to foolishly believe he can keep the SP suppressed. These days traders scrounge across BBs, reeking of desperation. The reality is, TUI, CINE, BOO etc will all go up once macro conditions improve. Namely inflation addressed which should come at the hint of peace in Eastern Europe.

Agree with your sentiment, LPD. School is almost out and the cinema will be a welcome refuge for teenagers (peak demographics) across all territories that CINE operate in. Away from their parents watchful eye and a cool, air con venue to take shelter from the blazing sun. The movies will keep coming.

Squib can say Maverick didn't make a difference, ignorant to the fact that Cineworld have not disclosed Q2 performance or earnings yet - when it lands, it will be very positive as we have all seen BoxOffice Mojo and observed an 85% recovery month on month to 2019.