Member Info for RS2002

Disney charged $30 per Premium Download x 20 million = $600 million loss of revenue.

Things to consider:

- The single spend PER HOUSEHOLD of $30 would likely have been seen by 3-4 members of the family?
- The downloads from the torrent sites (which were captured) do NOT track further downstream transfers - i.e. I download a copy, I put it on USB and I share it with my classmates at school (x 20) - they in turn pass it on.

The issue is you put 4k PERFECT copies of a premium movie on a day-date strategy you lose.

I posted this on Monday, but I'll re-post as it is very eye opening:

A good article here from Deadline.

Summary:

1. Studios experimented and didn’t see ROI. They have lost billions in the process. Disney investing $9bn by 2024 and unlikely it will see anything but losses.

2. Warner Bros paid talent $200m to accept the dual platform approach but won’t be doing this again for 2022.

3. Disney witness 20 million free downloads of Black Widow from torrent sites which amounted to $600 million loss from PVOD alone (let alone the cannibalisation of downstream platforms). 4k copies of movies made available within hours of day date streaming release.

4. Analysts are bullish on theatrical exclusivity returning. “Studios are looking to go back to the theatrical window,” Eric Handler, Managing Director and Senior Research Analysts at MKM Partners.

5. Over 40 big movies this year that will be theatrical exclusive and will entice audiences back.

Source: https://deadline.com/2022/01/2022-box-office-theatrical-streaming-day-date-experiment-1234902774/

- Retail traders know.
- Institutional investors know (I haven't seen ONE TR-1 reducing their positions),

Source: https://www.ig.com/uk/shares/markets-shares/cineworld-group-plc-CINE-UK

Suspect they want Canadian audiences to visit too. Whilst Cineworld isn’t impacted, it makes more sense to leave it for spring. Spider-Man is doing exceptionally well so it is a good reschedule to maximise earnings.

*Sony (not Don’t)

Edit: 3. Disney witness 20 million free downloads (FOR BLACK WIDOW ALONE) from torrent sites which amounted to $600 million loss from PVOD alone (let alone the cannibalisation of downstream platforms). 4k copies of movies made available within hours of day date streaming release.

Imagine this $600m loss on x 5 movies for a given year? $3bn loss on PVOD a year on piracy is what studios are waking up to.

Don’t successfully mitigated piracy and without China (which 2019 factored) it has virtually recovered across territories in the past quarter.

There is a lot of upside from here.

It’s no secret African countries have the lowest vaccine uptake (~6%) compared to other developed and undeveloped/emerging countries.

I feel for squib, he’s getting more desperate by the hour. I suspect he’s watched a few YouTube videos on “how to short” or maybe attended some of those masterclass where these self made millionaire traders have made so much wealth, they want to share their secrets for the sum of £1500.

The irony is, squib could made that money back if he just invested in cineworld and ignored macro movements and amateur FUD.

A good article here from Deadline.

Summary:

1. Studios experimented and didn’t see ROI. They have lost billions in the process. Disney investing $9bn by 2024 and unlikely it will see anything but losses.

2. Warner Bros paid talent $200m to accept the dual platform approach but won’t be doing this again for 2022.

3. Disney witness 20 million free downloads from torrent sites which amounted to $600 million loss from PVOD alone (let alone the cannibalisation of downstream platforms). 4k copies of movies made available within hours of day date streaming release.

4. Analysts are bullish on theatrical exclusivity returning. “Studios are looking to go back to the theatrical window,” Eric Handler, Managing Director and Senior Research Analysts at MKM Partners.

5. Over 40 big movies this year that will be theatrical exclusive and will entice audiences back.

Source: https://deadline.com/2022/01/2022-box-office-theatrical-streaming-day-date-experiment-1234902774/

Well, the scores are in.

Box Office takings in the US (where Cineworld has 75% of cinemas operating):

2021 Q4: $2,061,787,492
2019 Q4: $2,889,021,866

A 71% RECOVERY to pre-pandemic performance whilst Covid was still prevalent, particularly the uncertainty around Omicron which has now been acknowledged by the international world as a milder variant.

Another great statistic was the final month of December.

December 2021: $919,225,798
December 2019: $1,148,160,515

The final month of December 2021 revealed an even bigger recovery of 80% to pre-pandemic December 2019.

Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/december/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses

That moodys news was dated: London, 07 December 2020

Turant, posting news over 12 months old smacks of desperation. You must be nervous. Slow and controlled breathing is in order for you, tomorrow.

Now the 12 most lucrative movie at the box office, DURING the pandemic no less.

This bodes well for the box office recovery for 2022.

Source: https://deadline.com/2022/01/spider-man-no-way-home-third-weekend-matrix-sing-global-international-box-office-1234903579/

Yes, Covid was all Mooky’s fault.

Cineworld and beyond cinemas, no other industry or business was impacted.

The share price is not currently 32p and is still trading at the pre-pandemic price.

Do such false words make you feel a little better?

Sensible posters have done their research and are ready to see a nice recovery for 2022.

Delicious, as you say!

Hmm.

Who to trust?

1. CEO who says last FOUR months have been strong
2. Random poster pushing FUD stating he is shorting

I’ll stick with the facts from the CEO.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/12/28/movies-on-their-way-back-after-strong-last-four-months-says-cineworld-ceo.html

Not even $30bn. It’s closer to $20bn.

Peter Cohan, a lecturer at Babson College and author of “Goliath Strikes Back,” told GOBankingRates that Evergrande’s default will have no significant effect on the U.S. economy since it has ONLY $20 billion in U.S. dollar bonds outstanding.

“As of 2021, the size of the bond market (total debt outstanding) is estimated to be at $119 trillion worldwide and $46 trillion for the US market — the Evergrande bonds are 0.04% of the U.S. total,” Cohan said. “Investors in those bonds will suffer losses but since the risk of Evergrande’s default has been high for a long time, those who invested in the bonds should be well-prepared for what is happening now. Even if those investors end up losing everything, the systemic impact will be TINY.”

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-evergrande-defaulted-debt-does-171343026.html

It won’t make a difference. It is well know the exposure to US banks from Evergrande is about $30bn (~10% of total debt). The majority is domestic China affiliated.

Both DOW and S&P 500 Futures are UP pre-market opening.

*as if he was comparing

Retail sales vs online sales.

You believe this is comparable to Hollywood which values its product for theatrical exhibition and following a failed streaming experiment (read Disney and WB) have now agreed to revert back to theatrical exclusivity first then secondary streams.

I don’t see the comparison. Do you want to be another clueless poster who was talking about NAV as of he was comparing hydrocarbon and crude oil by barrel to market capital, next?

I would get some rest, squid. You’re confused and need to re-strategise. Try again, tomorrow after some sleep.

More fables from you squid.

1. I have never been invested in Debenhams
2. I don’t tell others to Buy Buy Buy

I give my personal investment stance.

I bought in October 2020 17p and sold at 104p making a handsome profit.

I’m back now invested and happy to sit tight for the recovery I believe is coming based on fundamentals.

You can keep posting new threads to keep your FUD at the top but each will be replied.

Perhaps you should get in touch with the number of BIG Institutional Investors and ask them, when the share price dipped, why didn’t they sell? Why have we not seen any TR-1 disclosing a reduced position?

I’ll give you a clue because you’re a pretty clueless poster: they aren’t worried about short term price movements and recognise that the Box Office in western territories is making a recovery, ready to join China which has already recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Perhaps we do have it all wrong?

Perhaps, squid is an altruistic poster - uninvested and deeply concerned about the well-being of anonymous retail Cineworld investors.

If you believe that, you will believe anything.

Squid is here to lower his entry as he see value in the company and the box office performance performance of Q3 prior, Q4 coming is making him and whatever small time brokerage he is potentially posting on behalf, extremely nervous.

You see, there is no more negative news.

1. Box office recovering
2. Debt covenant test not due until 6 months
3. Appeal against Cineplex judgement underway (could well take years)
4. U.K. ministers advising that no lockdowns are coming and despite cases up, omicron is milder and doesn’t warrant such
5. Pharmaceuticals progressing antiviral drugs
6. Vaccine and booster drive progressing well
7. Biden administration stating the US won’t lockdown and winter strategy is testing and pushing more boosters

You can see why the derampers are out. It’s bottom of the barrel FUD pushing but it will be ok vain.

We will entertain it though only for good banter and humour. It has no other intrinsic value.

Couldn’t agree more.

The appeal will drag on for years potentially and I can see it going through U.K. courts before any enforcement is granted.

These matters take a long time. I fully expect western territories to see a full box office recovery before the appeal concludes and many other analysts believe so, too.

“The thing is that Cineworld is going to appeal and that could go on for a COUPLE OF YEARS before the whole process is exhausted.” Eric Handler of MKM Partners.

Source: https://deadline.com/2021/12/amc-entertainment-adam-aron-cineworld-regal-amc-stock-1234891902/