Member Info for RS2002

Why settle for £43.5m ($75m Canadian) when they can pay the termination fee of £28m and save £16m, instead?

Irrespective, the market should ready to this news soon and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see an influx of investors piling back in, more so given the recent strong box office performance we have witness.

Great find, HNS.

“We believe that if Cineworld does not honour the court awarded damages, Cineplex may then have to seek enforcement in the UK courts, which in turn opens up a series of new questions and uncertainties.”

I suspect this will be settled in the U.K. courts and per page 119, of the Arrangement Agreement, the only fee Cineworld will pay is the termination fee of £28m and the matter settled.

Citation:
We irrevocably and unconditionally undertake, represent and warrant to you that we shall pay to the Company (a) $41,520,000 in the event the Termination Event (as defined below) occurs prior to 11:59:59 p.m. (Toronto time) on February 2, 2020, and (b) £28,275,895 (payable in Canadian dollars based on the spot foreign exchange rate published by Bloomberg at 11:30:00 p.m. (Toronto Time) on the date of this letter agreement) in the event the Termination Event occurs after 11:59:59 p.m. (Toronto time) on February 2, 2020 (either, (a) or (b), as applicable, the “Shareholder Termination Fee”)

Source: https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/cineplex-inc-acquisition/arrangement-agreement.pdf

Also worth noting that given EU approval has been received, GDR could well be in dialogue now with European pharmaceutical outfits about getting the tests produced/distributed.

From my perspective, I want to see UK approval and then collaboration with other pharmaceuticals to get the tests manufactured. I'm thinking Glaxosmithkline etc

Surely the IP is where the value is at.

I've heard some cobblers in my time but a head teacher enquiring about tests, what next down to paper chase to pick-up some pens and pencils for the children? You will be telling us about your visit to the dairy farm to acquire some quality milk, next!

Is anyone else finding it hard to buy stock?

I just managed a top-up at 38p having sold earlier at 70p.

A great time to get back in.

Whilst Omicron is mild, don't discount the fact that the Biden administration has pledged 500m more flow tests and with EU approval, UK approval is almost a certainty.

Testing is always going to be in demand.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Warner Bros decided to day date their entire catalogue of movies this year pushing HBO MAX, they will see soon enough the effects. Streaming is too congested now and Disney have even dropped the price to entice many to come back.

The silver lining is Warner Bros have made it clear, their 2022 catalogue will have an exclusive theatrical window.

It's no secret that Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) used the worst case scenario, as such their modelling was not accurate and is clearly NOT representative of the figures we are seeing now.

Javid, our Health secretary has made it clear: 90% of hospitalisations are amongst the unvaccinated.

The government is pushing ahead with the vaccine and booster drive and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the hospital stats are manageable.

Just 4% of UK hospital beds are occupied with Covid patients.

The Biden administration has made it clear - live with it and use testing but no lockdowns to come and as such we should see our SP gradually increase as the market absorbs this and factors that 75% of the Cineworld estate is in the US.

Keeping in mind this is just one broker target at 35p, the positive is this represents a ~10% UPLIFT from the current SP.

Granted we have some vultures circling hoping to see 20s again, this is a firm bottom called out with plenty of upside if the pieces come together.

Right now, this is a good entry and I stand by it, having taken it.

A very merry Christmas and HNY to you, maddanus69 and all other genuine investors/traders.

I personally, don’t think 1 week or even a month of silence is unusual.

The process takes a while, it is the holiday season and throw in covid and operational needs from two entities, a lull in communications should be expected.

If you want to see just how long some arbitration takes, go visit Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) and see how long the Ombrina Mare arbitration has been going on. Since 2017 UK-based oil and gas company Rockhopper Exploration has been suing Italy over the state’s refusal to grant it a concession for oil drilling in the Adriatic Sea. The refusal came after the Italian Parliament banned all new oil and gas operations near the country’s coast, amidst concerns regarding the environment, earthquake risks, local fisheries, and tourism as well as strong opposition from local residents. Rockhopper
is claiming up to US$350 million in damages.

Whilst these are two very different sectors and disputes, all legal challenges and appeals take some time.

I still stand by my belief, it will take 6-12 months by which time we will a 100% box office recovery and Covid and Omicron the dominant but weaker variant we all have to live with.

I believe once we have some news stream on the appeal progress and continued box office recovery, we could easily have a rerate broker target or 150p+

There is plenty of upside from here (5x) if you’re patient and suitably diversified.

They will want to monitor the box office performance and appeal progress.

That said, it does support the bottom we have seen.

KTP, whilst you may be jesting, you need to tone that type of language down.

These boards are monitored and whilst we don’t agree with the judges decision, there is no need to be disrespectful like that.

*believed

14/01/2020 - shorts were ~15%
Share price = 198p

Cineworld has always had high short positions because many beloved streaming would topple the business model, the same way many said home video, dvd, Blu Ray would too.

On the subject of the NHS, hospitals and beds, I posted this yesterday and I’ll do it again because it’s easy to lose focus.

The NHS have advised that currently there are 7,111 hospitilsations with covid.

The number of NHS beds in the UK stands at 170,548, with 124,903 in England, alone.

When you consider that covid hospitilsations are making up approximately 4% of all occupancy, you begin to understand that the NHS should be able to cope.

It’s no secret that cinemas make their most money from concessions. Popcorn is incredibly lucrative with a profit margin some report of 1275%

Source: https://www.rd.com/list/10-outrageous-markups-youd-never-guess-you-were-paying/

Now the recent news for Cineplex is a huge blow for them and they may find their current business model ineffective if their sales commission for tickets being their only income stream.

Cineplex made an announcement about changes coming to its cinemas across Canada. In its update for Ontario, Cineplex wrote, “Starting on Sunday, we won’t be able to serve you food or drinks, including our famous popcorn. We’re with you — it won’t be the same!”

It remains to be seen if this will translate across all regions in Canada or just Ontario but this has been a major blow for Cineplex. They cannot even sell popcorn.

Source: https://curiocity.com/ontarians-can-no-longer-eat-at-the-movies-even-cineplex-agrees-it-wont-be-the-same/

Plastered all over US media.

No lockdowns and the U.K. suggesting omicron may have peaked will see recovery plays including cineworld rerate.

This is prepping 2022 to start off very well.

Did someone leave some "Whiskas" out for our resident deramper?

If you need to be pacified by rampers telling you this will be back to 120p in a few days or weeks, you won’t find it in this thread, sadly.

Set your expectations.

I would give this 3-6 months before reach a target of 120p and then it’s entirely dependent on the new stream and appeal progress and wider box office recovery.