Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Rogue the Bigg Market is in Newcastle (Upon Tyne).

Ghost town at the moment of course but people travel from all over the world - ok the Uk to have their stag dos and hen parties.

Yes Rogue for sure and post Covid Saga is going to be in better shape (once cruising resumes) but that is going to take time. £6 is an amazing return for me personally and £7 is the absolute max in the next 6 months IMO. Long haul after that and I haven’t got that long an attention span.

Surprised at Banbury spelling it wrong but it’s the Bigg Market and is where all the young ones go drinking. I first went there from the Boro in 1977 oh dear who blinked.

Earth calling millionaire!

Keeping it real £7 would be amazing in fact I will be tempted to top skim from £6 onwards and here is my reason why:-

Using the old share prices on the Lse tables it is possible to calculate (roughly) the average Market Cap (Mcap) for the 12 month period preceding Covid.

Remember though this was pre-Covid so both ships were cruising.

Jan-Jun 2019. £850 million.
July-Dec 2019. £560 million.

£850 million is a share price now of £6.

The current Mcap at close of play today is £569 million (£4.06 share price) so we are already at pre Covid levels.

Millionaires estimates of £12 to £15 is £1.6 to £2.1 Billion Mcap respectively.

All possible of course if you are prepared to hang around long enough?

Twice as many as I thought and 49 including Banbury (since he can’t recommend his own post).

It’s all going to change soon though.

Once the ships sail this will re-rate and and once this gets into the £6 - £7 region the masses will come and spoil this lovely board for sure.

Honestly Rogue couldn’t make it up.

If I buy it goes down if I sell it goes up guaranteed.

I feel like a camera is watching my every move and I’m part of some big experiment. Ha ha

Like Jim Carrey and I’m the Truman show. Lol

£3.99! Awww ffs man knew it. kiss of death.

Hi jedclampit
10p minimum gain is what I try to go for so in this case it would be 3914x10p so just under £400.

£100 costs so £300 gain.

Hardly worth it really and I will only sell on no news. If there is good news I will hang on a little longer.

Just a bit of fun and I wouldn’t touch my core holding.

Would NOT recommend it though I’m just bored. Ha ha

As Britney Spears would say...

‘Oops I did it again’ ha ha

That 3914 @ £4.0398 BUY is mine and I’m going to sell them at £4.1398 in the next 24hours.

C’mon man I know I can do this.

I’m trying a different tact. Every time I sell and re-buy back I mess up so I’m trying the other way round.

Look and learn you lot (what not do!) ha ha

I concur Banbury and also agree that past share prices comparisons are purely academic because the past is the past and a lot of people don’t care.

Personally (as most here know) I do and are one of the reasons I’m so heavily invested.

One of the past figures that I find particularly reassuring is the 33p offer price by the Private Equity (PE) firm.

It must be remembered that this was offered when Saga’s management team had lost their way and the Company was was on its knees with both Covid and no Sir Roger.

So a ruthless PE firm thought Saga was worth a punt and were prepared to pay £370 million.

It was turned down of course and Sir Roger (the previous owner and son of the founder) injected £100m of his own money and made some big changes.

Covid is now of course on its back foot and the future is bright.

37 Recommends! Ohhhh I wonder who will click on 39 to clam the prize of No40?

Whoever it is please announce yourself.

Will it be a regular or will it be a silent reader?
Will it be a shareholder or someone who is thinking about becoming one?
What will the share price be if/when it hits 50?
Ha ha The worst part of all of this is that I’m genuinely interested!
This lockdown needs to end and soon for everyone’s sanity ha ha

Friday? Ha ha *MONDAY!

Rogue if we join £10 club mate then I think we (Beachbum) should organise a Shareholder Saga Cruise - Don’t worry FJ we will get you in { smiley face }

The drinks are on Millionaire since he owns half the Company ha ha

28 so far and that has surprised me mind especially for a weekend.

Be interesting to see what it is at close of play on Friday.

Excellent post Banbury informative interesting and well thought through as usual.

I’m curious how many people actually read this board? How many are there of us?

I’ve just ‘recommended’ Banbury’s post so the count is 3.

Would everybody please do the same - even you quiet ones who never post please.

Just for a bit of fun.

I will be amazed if we exceed 20 but let’s see.

The refinance was totally expected so can’t see any big change in the share price as a result of that but great news nonetheless.

Check out the difference in the share price on sheltie and then joetricky posts above though - nearly spat out my cornflakes! Ha ha

The elephant in the room though (as Banbury correctly points out) is what about the £140m cash raised?

It can’t be ignored but equally it can’t just be added to the Mcap.

I personally deal with it by just being aware of it.

Truth is that it just doesn’t matter anymore in fact this is the last time I’m ever going to mention it (unless somebody else brings it up first!) ha ha

Jasonsdad Yes!

At last somebody has taken into account the billion shares. Hurray!!!!

What Jasonsdad has done there is ‘halved’ the old share price and then correctly multiplied it by 15 to get the current share price. The reverse of this is to divide the current share price by 15 and then double but everybody here forgets the ‘double’

Here is the actual correct calculation.

Just over 8 ie

My calculations :-

Stage1
1,122,003,328 (1.1 BILLION) shares BEFORE dilution ie The ‘OLD’ share price.

Stage2
2,093,921,536 (2.1 BILLION) shares AFTER dilution.

Stage3
139,594,769 (140 MILLION) shares AFTER 15:1 Consolidation. Ie The ‘NEW’ (current) share price.

If we simply divide the current share price by 15 (which most people here do) that converts the price to the mid stage2 completely ignoring the extra billion shares. It needs converting AGAIN to get back to the ‘OLD’ share price Stage1.

The easy answer is to miss out Stage2 and divide the current ‘NEW’ share price Stage3 by 8.04 to get to Stage1 the ‘OLD’ share price ie

1,122,003,328/139,594,769 = 8.04

So the IPO of £1.85 old price is 185 x 8.04 = £14.87 new.

Perturbed your question is the other way round ie new £4 new to old so we have to divide by 8.04 ie

400/8.04 = 49.75p

Hope this helps!

In 12 Months...

WRKS (now 47p) solid double+ so £1+

CARD (now 69p) risky double so £1.50+

SHOE (now 67p) solid double+ so £1.50+

Always the last to know...

Millionaire has nobody told you that sir Roger is taking Saga private at £7?

The itinerary is still the same as far as I am aware. I’m not when the decision was made to sail around Britain in May but I’m sure it was relatively recent and obviously as a result of Covid. Not sure.
One thing I am sure of though is that it will rain ha ha

Morning Beachbum oh yes Saga have pipped everyone at the post for sure and ahead of the game.

Not only did they announce it first, they have printed all their brochures and sent them out. I have them in front of me now, they came yesterday.

The “Dear Guest” intro by the CEO Nigel Blanks is reassuring and talks openly about Covid and free cancellation and no amendments fees and free £5m medical cover etc etc all in all very impressive.

“Treasures of the British Isles” did make me laugh though - couldn’t think of anything worse personally!