Member Info for RorkesDrift

Oh the irony

We know 30million workers in UK. Many of them not high risk.

Let's "pretend" we get to a point where only Skegness has cases. There would be little point testing someone on a plane in Cardiff. I doubt NZ are testing at that level.

So even if we start at high testing rates has people are isolated the need for trusting declines. The dentist model is interesting - you could use them, hospitals and GPs to passively test the population - would quickly identify hotspots.

My sums are 20% of 30M workers. Tested on average 12 times. These are reliable as numbers I pulled out my are which coincidentally ......

Don't call me that

BanjoString is just tuning up - needs to whackamole first but should be there soon

Safy - so before covid they were at a much lower valuation - I'm thinking most of the rise is due to covid test. My next move is to top up here rather than here cause the timelines are shorter and the risks lower - as you say none of their therapies are even preclinical yet.

Safy - I'm in both as well. Valuation for AVCT is shifting the existing market for Mab to affirmers in diagnostics and therapeutics. Huge but will require millions, time and a lot of misses on the way.

TILS has delivered more and has concrete assets. So less risky but much smaller potential.

Great to see two UK companies - being in both gives me some cover

Bump and thanks to all posters. Love the science (light relief from guess when the RNS, guess the SP tomorrow)

Its on website

sir A stated CoGs of £2. Think this looks a low overhead company so if each test was £10 (note Sona stating $50) plenty of head room for profit above £1 per test.

Number of tests is the key driver. This depends on strategy - test everyone often or hit outbreaks hard (or both). Then we consider duration - my view is with the brake off lockdown the R number will increase for at least six months now.

Then 30M workers in UK. If 10% tested weekly thats 3M tests per week say x 20 weeks = 60M tests.
60M x £5 margin = £300M profit.

Given size of UK and say multiply by 10 to account for RoW thats £3B. Assume sums are over optimistic so cut them all in half

5% tested x 10 weeks x £2.50margin = £375M which is current mkt cap.

Not an epidemiologist

Jim Croce - what a track.

No proven therapy for CCHDV. It doesn't affect the West so no money to create on but mortality rates are high.

Its the sort of thing that WHO or BMGF would support - Avacta could do it as proof of concept since other then Zika its the most advanced to date (although the mystical RNS may change that)

If you spend everything you make from Avacta in a huge blaze of decadence before you pop your clogs you are also pay 0 IHT.

1, 2, 3, hello chucky, 5, 6...//

Yesterday someone posted this. It shows a benchmark for covid.

https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0008364

Bill Gates would be more likely to fund this.

I tend to lean to the left

So normally I'd retaliate by saying something that makes me sound considered, empathetic or knowledgeable but its important that the opposite would make me insane.

We all want to see the end of coronaviris, its important that we recognise the tremendous work of the NHS, its awful that people have died etc etc. I'm standing at next erection

Its politician pointing with their thumbs that winds me up. Did they all go on the same bull****e course where you learn to trivialise a question by starting your answer with Look.....

I'm 60% cash at moment.

If I said we were going to fly I'm 8000 people from Wuhan and let them travel over the UK you would predict a second wave. Well that's how many native UK cases we have a day and that's with lockdown.

They are trying to triturate economic activity against bed occupation.

My concern is that opinions about what clinical evidence might be forthcoming are not facts. Presenting them as if they are in order to establish a valuation is not great analysis

Product X is truly a disruptive technology and will revolutionise the treatments of Disease Y. The CEO says its is amazing and Z million people who suffer are all looking forward to this revolution happening at some unknown time in the future. It definitely works all the time, some of the time.

I've sent them my CV and asked if they have a problem with small burrowing mammals.

Any response is more info - tell them you are a share holder and I think they have to consider it.

Another Covid play although they already had phase II data in other areas. Thanks - will have a look.