RE: Hot to value a company?11 Jun 2020 14:43
At the risk of mentioning that bloody cat again there are too possibilities
1. They don't get a test
2. They do get a test
4. Its back again
So the risk bit is how you factor in that unknown - at some point in the future someone will open the box. If it were a coin toss then 50:50 chance. Do you think their chances are more or less than a coin toss in the timescales you require. Adjust your risk factor accordingly.
If the get a test and sell £10M I'm suggesting you value that as a cash on the balance sheet rather than earnings since they are unlikely to be reoccurring over the timescales used for a PE type of approach.
Furthermore, it ignores the other projects that do aim to deliver over medium to long term