Member Info for RorkesDrift

Some times I see professional investors missing the obvious and I think I'm wasted in McDonalds.

I'm worried its a group of monkeys with a set of dice. Moved into cash end of last week

Lovely. It kind of feels right as well. If we said to the world we have an antigen test I think those human types would stump up £2B

Mmm - I think the cash raise has enabled a change in approach - up to now been reliant on partners to handle the regulatory. Going for your own is a sign that they are moving towards a more independent approach. In terms of the diagnostics then CE mark applies - a much lower standard than pharma. I'm guessing its class 2 or 3. Given the volumes then QA probably justifies a FTE+. Again suggesting he thinks it will work.

Just seeing if you were paying attention

I bought CSL last night

Apologies for looking like ramping but I'm looking for other covid plays

They make flu vaccine
They are very good at other vaccines (2 in world)
Their share price is down 30% from peak
They grow like strawberries
They have an IL6 covid treatment (see TILS)
They have a great pipeline

Just thought I'd share

I'm thinking vaccine companies as a double edged bet.

We are going to need a significantly bigger flu campaign this year to free up NHS

Now if a company also had a covid vaccine in development and a covid therapetic that would be a three edged sword and such a thing would be beautiful to behold.

Good to see 4. putting in another good performance

100% agree - cash in bank at £1.8B would give an asset sheet value of £1.8B and some pence.

I'm a bit higher - I think £3 net margin based on ASP of £15.

Then number of tests will be driven by

1. Government test and trace
2. Opening up schools, hospital, police - say 250,000 per week.
3. Private sector so airlines, warehouse etc - say 2M per week which is 10% of workforce. Could be H&S gone mad

So 3M per week x 24 weeks = 72M tests in UK at £3 gives UK value.

I tend to multiply UK by 10 to get a WW value = £2.1B

This is my base case - best and worst are big big funnels.

With no test then £0. Like you say its a **** or bust cat scenario

Can someone cut and paste this thread at 4.45 everyday and save everyone a job.

Combine it with "I think there will be an RNS tomorrow" and Great time to buy avacta

Google "what is PCR"

No its OK use https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction

Then google layerak flow device.

Come back in 15 minutes

It will come up again at AGM. Share holders have right to ask questions.

1. How did boo boo time their investment so magnificently
2. How did market know price of placing the day before

I think I am right in saying

1. They now have enough cash to get their first chemo therapy into phase 1 (humans)
2. They have tested two others in animals
3. They have partnerships where 4 big pharma stump up R&D
4. They have a prototype for BAMs and are in active discussion with MS manufacturers
5. They have shortened a year long development program down to weeks re LFD.
6. No one I say I say no one has yet got a rapid test to market. The requirement is increasing not decreasing (OK that last one is an opinion.
4. That's twice now
7. You only make or lose money when you sell. If you want smooth I recommend a savings account
8. Google use Google

I thank you

Why does it matter.......?

Why does it matter?

I don't know, I was never there

Does this mean I won't wake up every morning and go to bed every night seeing a dozen posts saying I think there will new an RNS any moment. Shame - they help me sleep

Apologies - that is hard core staying power. I saw them first in 2017 but didn't invest - bit too lab centric. Saw the light at start of 2020 - worked out covid potential but was shocked to see chemo developments - came in at 16p but my average is way higher with last lot at £1.87. Grrrrrrrr

You will get slated but for me its useful to know sentiment out there.

I'm staying and its more that with a high % of portfolio do I risk anymore at lower prices

Whole market is dropping so perhaps people distracted but surprised given the no news but warm feelings in today's ppt.

If you been topping up and your average I'd 33p then it is only little top ups?

I thought that went well - when he said prototype LFD I went to top up but saw price had fallen so didn't

When he mentioned two new therapeutic chemotherapies I went to top up again - didn't for same reason

Traditional LFD would use antibody has binding reagent. No one has cracked that yet. Affirmers are new - different size so will move along strip differently. Not surprising not ready yet - still think Avacta look most likely to get there first.

Without Cytiva I think current SP still looks OK - whole new class of chemotherapy drugs plus whole new class of drug conjugates with four big companies all paying the R&D