Member Info for Roobans

Wow, just checked back in for the first time in a while… Last message I read was somebody selling out at 2.65ish having dropped from circa 3.50 on trade war fears…

I feel bad for that guy! He did make me stop reading these boards though and remember I’m invested in the company not the price… Covid was a once in a lifetime discount for airlines. PE ratio is still way below average and I’d say this is a good 5 year plus hold… Dividends would be a bonus but returns here so far pay for any short term volatility.

Avocet, nice to see you here… Been in a few together but I’ve been ignoring the boards for years…
Think we saw an initial PI profit take this morning but propped up by those with greater knowledge and ambition in what is the start of a full recovery over the next 12-18 months…
I’m in here and IAG for the last 2 years, buying dips and holding for Q4 2024 at the earliest.
Demand is currently outstripping supply in the sector, more efficient trimmed businesses and feeling very positive!
Well done all in here and other industry partners and GL all

The guys buying are the ones that want the deal to go through i.e. Anglo and any of the banks/legals involved in the deal... They will gladly buy as many as possible at or below the offer price as they can then vote for the deal.

The downside from here is significantly worse and more likely than any potential upside, I personally have sold and drawn a line under this. The big boys beat the small guys once more, the worst of capital markets strategy in its full glory...

GL

Looks like they have got the loan shares back... Bought by the lender/shorter and returned...

Can anyone post a link or tell me where to find it, can’t find the recording... thanks

Possibly because this is bottom? Maybe before he knew what was coming or at least had a strong feeling more pain was to come, maybe now he thinks we have finally hit bottom and the only way is up?

Just theorising, no fact or evidence to prove....

Throws his toys again, on a positive note it could be good timing... It was always going to swing back in the tit for tat playground mentality of all of this. At least by happening now it gives us time for a period of instability, some fallout to head Trumps way and then something positive happen to calm the markets again... Just in time for a bond issue.

I imagine CF will prepare everything and only issue when the window presents itself in order that they sell...

Strikes again... Seems the tariff announcement but China and possibly the news out of the fed today quenched the rise slightly...
And next week or possibly over the weekend the news will be positive again and we’ll head back up...
One hell of a ride at the moment!

5000 auto trades... :)

Thanks Smalltime, nice link... Breaking it down by month August is clearly the slowest month which we all expected but by how much is significant... I guess CF thought he might sneak in before the banking break, possibly predicting some volatility and trying to capitalise (literally) before it kicked in... Sadly the BOB spoiled that plan...

An average of 5.18bn issued in August over the years compared with 33.42bn in September! In fact there are only 2 months in the year significantly better to issue bonds and thats March & April with average issue values of 47.81bn & 52.42bn respectively... Looks good for September!

Fed announcement due today, expecting a cut of 25bp next month also, some predicting 5 rates cuts before Apr 2020...

As long as the US/China trade issues doesn't flare massively, I am very confident about the bonds, RNS Sep 11th 0700.

Need to get to a computer, sounds complicated... If I get the gist, a slight reduction overall but a swing in weighting towards a successful bond issue...

On my tiny phone so can’t see the others easily...

Sold 6m... explains the after hours trade that showed up this morning... Any ideas?

Personally ffc, I'm reserving judgement until I receive my Poly4 treated berries to taste...

This was the point I tried to make (badly) last week, thanks Verde for pointing out the error!

As the asset manager for Jupiter has pointed out, in ‘MOST’ projects like this the first shareholders are wiped out - This would have been ST1, the. The second set of shareholders are wiped out (ST2) but due to the management team we have this has not been the case.

I understand the frustration with the failed promises but at the end of the day nobody knew what was possible and CF had every intention to bring these promises to fruition. An impossible task? Yes, we all had the chance to sell for large profits at one time or another...

At the end of the day Jupiter and other large ii’s have bought in not because they thought they would t be diluted but because they are confident they won’t get wiped out.

What do they do with dilution? Buy more... That’s the game, we all have the opportunity to add at these levels but risk still exists.

I’m confident the bonds will sell but not confident enough to add now, I’d rather pay a 30-50% premium when they do and then kick myself for the next year.

If you thought this was going to go from fledgling explorer to fully producing world class fertiliser company without massive dilution then you really didn’t do your homework.

Take the pill, learn the lesson and pass that knowledge to your kids, no amount of whinging will change it. The best thing you can do is either sell and forget (best for mental health) or suck it up, move on and get behind this project fully!

Yes guess so... :)

The short would be to hedge and cushion any drop whilst reducing their position, without a short you just lose money, with it you make on the short and lose on the long.

Could the black rock short position be a hedging strategy against a recent stock purchase? They could have snaffled up to 3% recently at bargain prices without a TR-1. A circa 0.5% short on this would be reasonable... Just a thought...

WW As far as I can find it is usually in the region of LIBOR plus between 2-4%. No money trades hands for the value of the equity only the difference/interest is paid.

If the stock goes down then at expiration the owner also receives the difference, if it goes up the borrower receives the increase. Either way the owner makes money.

Yes, at the end of the day Citi are in for 5%, albeit they have arranged a highly complex solution of equity swaps, shorting and the CBs to ensure they are protected from short term volatility.

Either way they are obviously long on the stock and maximising returns and deferring risk in the short term.

Equity swaps go up or down they get paid but they are exposed if financing is not found that’s for sure...