Member Info for Roobans

I would suggest there will be many people in the city that will know the outcome of the bond sale way before the general market does, this should see the price climb by closing of shorts and dare I say, friends and relatives that get a hot tip putting some cash in for a quick profit... Combined with all those on the sideline who are more risk averse hopping on the wagon again...

The sp could take off quickly with the huge following and some positive sentiment, obviously the usual morons at fool etc will jump on board and reference one of their previous posts correctly predicting the movement... forget about all of the others that are incorrect...

Hopefully July/August will see the end of sub 20p forever, but those who think this cant move quickly anymore may be proven wrong and the start of that move could come sooner than we think...

I hit my post-st2 stretch target of shares last week, a 3p dividend will secure my retirement in 13 years... Hopefully not too much to ask for...

John, CF holding is now approx 1.75% and at current possible full dilution around 1.25% so he has def had to suffer the dilution... All relative as he is still worth millions and won't struggle whatever happens...

My TA: Manipulated to collect easy cheap shares from the scared, over-committed or simply uneducated... These filled several larger orders to ensure daily targets were reached.
At some point it will be manipulated up to get the trading from the same brigade due to the FOMO effect and the cycle will continue.

How would these guys make any money in the next few months with small chance of any significant news?

Without movement either way nobody would sell and hence nobody would buy... Its just how it works and why the bankers win nearly all of the time...

Well 75% of the last 4 trading recommendations on TA site British bulls have been wrong... Just shows what historical tripe TA really is... Generally the percentage correct hovers around 50%... Strange that for a binary decision

Not bad Kapersky, pretty close... ;-)

Post St1 for me so happily a MTH... I made my initial investment based on the potential value at 20mta, I’ve traded a bit, some losers but more recently successfully, added significantly on dips and hold way more than I thought I wanted to.

Anything before 2021 is just temporary IMO and only those with a temporary view will really care. I will derisk a little as the valuation increases but I really don’t see full potential being realised before the 10-15 year window. My main holding will wait patiently for this and a simultaneous retirement and I will not stress the daily’s.

If the meteorite hits I will merely be working for another 5 years to cover the loss but am prepared to accept the odds of this not happening!

As I’m 3500m away from Yorkshire I can’t easily make the AGM so I really do appreciate all those who went sharing their factual and subjective opinions. I can guarantee I will be at the £ party when it eventually happens and also at the AGM following the party...

I do empathise with those who have held for a long time and seen multiple large scale dilution and the current sp however, the chance of the dream succeeding before planning was very small, the chance of funding the dream smaller still and the chance that the world would accept the product again small. The chance of all of it being realised and the mine being built was tiny therefore the price was small. As the big VC boys say with start-up investing, believe in the end game and follow your money, fundraising and delay is inevitable!

Your money is safe until the company collapses and the further we go the smaller this chance becomes...

GL all and thanks for the info...

$144 x 30,800 = a potential revenue increase of $4,435,200 per crop or over $18m per year!

The prospectus tells a lot, the LTIP awards for 2024 will IMO be what can be realistically expected... If you look at the JOE awards for last year 35p was the target sp, news was released strategically to achieve this sp and shortly afterwards came the rumours/leaks and the sp dropped...

The boys in charge are not amateurs! Still, if they get the job done and if we do hit 5m before 2025 I'll be happy...

Garbage read, so many errors as usual for the rinse, rephrase and repost brigade! He uses a PS ratio in his calculations which doesn’t illustrate the potential Sirius has with the forecast high margins.

Using a more accurate PE ratio for forward earnings and applying it in the same method ($100/t earnings for 10Mt), BHP has a PE of around 17 currently with an industry average of 12.8. Even with the potential 10bn shares in circulation this equates to an sp of between 94p - £1.34 at current exchange rate.

50p is a nice start but personally I think we will see a higher price in 5 years.

What would be nice is if the UK had a nice SWF to be able to invest in projects of national significance....

If Palestine and Rwanda can do it, why havent we? (Major, Blair & Brown?)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2008/04/why-hasnt-britain-got-a-sovereign-wealth-fund/

Slightly different now than ST1 but agree it takes a while for the churn to get through the upset and frustrated holders into new hands... It certainly helps that a good portion of these have gone to some big experienced hands and am sure that when we get confirmation of the successful bond issue (Possibly before the anticipated date) then we will see a significant reduction in sellers and a rise in buyers...

Supply and demand will sort the rest, but as Myo says, if we see any further sharp climbs I will be setting more anchor points...

Sorry forgot to say that I can’t find anything that states they must inform the market of a change of holding, only when a pre-set threshold percentage is crossed either up or down. They may re-issue a new TR-1 with a similar percentage and a lot more shares but I’m not sure if this is mandatory...

Myo, yes that’s what I’m saying, the only reason we may not get a TR-1 from them is if they have added yesterday or today and are within the time limits for issuing but maintain their previously notified 3-4% holding. If they didn’t add we should get one indicating they are now below 3%...

Know what you mean! I was holding a horribly random number so had to add immediately to make it nice and fat and round... :-)

Will be interesting to see if we get a TR-1 with reference to Norges dropping below the 3%, if not then they must have bought more shares to maintain the 3-4% holding with the addition of the new shares...

Yes, that adds up... I got 20% of my extra request... Requested about 7 times more than my entitlement though hence getting more from the extra...

20% of the extra requested or 20% of your entitlement?

I got more shares in the extra than I got through the 1/22 OO...

Senior secured debt is the intention, by the time it is required it should be reasonably straight forward, however to cross t and dot i there has to be a back up which is apparent throughout the prospectus. In this case there is an alternative option to cover with convertible debt, common equity or other forms of debt.

I would like to think that after the significant dilution of ST2 they will do all in their power to keep the RCF to debt but never say never...

I’ve heard a lot about this name and although I was not present when he stated it I’m not sure how some are arguing that it is BS...

J’s don’t start from the bottom and continue upwards and if I’m not mistaken, the 2 year chart looks strikingly similar to the start of a J... All it needs is maybe to level off somewhere near this price for a while and then start a slow rise before accelerating into the pre-production, ST2 forgotten, sentiment driven, it’s actually happening sharp rise...

#herecomestheJ

A lot of mention of 30th September for the bond issue but as per my understanding of the prospectus this is just an anticipated issue date from the BOD, the ST2 funding deadline is the end of December unless I’m mistaken, gives a bit more breathing room if required.

Also I noted that there is room in the RCF for another $1bn of credit should there be any cost overruns...

Just don’t want people to get carried away with a BOD anticipated date again and start to panic when end of Sep approaches.

Am sure we won’t need the extra time but at least it is available...