Member Info for Roobans

Surely the whole point of the bond being senior secured and the basis of which will help towards the rating for the bond, is the fact it is secured.
Nobody would by a second hand bond without that security coming with it. If JPM sell on then maybe it will be for a small margin although most of JPMs costs for this will be covered by SXX. However, when the bond is sold on it is entirely removed from JPM and the new owner takes the bond and security it comes with.

This is the same in all secondary bond markets as far as I am aware...

JPM acting as initial purchaser enables them to charge a little extra if the opportunity arises but also allows them to control the amount they keep and the amount they syndicate.

This is the way I see it, I may be wrong tho so happy to hear any arguments...

I agree although the target is 10-12% the bonds are more likely to sell at close to 15% as this has be published, however, if you truly believe CF would allow any situation to occur that would wipe out the SH then you shouldn’t be invested anyway.

There is a huge appetite for HY bonds at the moment, already the worlds largest SWF’s have started taking a stake which shows a belief in the project. This belief may be supported further by purchasing secured bonds paying in the 12-15% range IMO.

Also the ST2 syndicated banks are still on the sideline having already spent a lot of time and money on due diligence and probably having a better knowledge of the project than anyone here...

Construction risk is already mitigated as much as possible albeit still a relatively high risk of delay but there is some fat in the timeline for this.

With the current progress on construction, the institutions already on board, the forecast margins, the TorPs, the size of deposit and projected life of mine alongside the BOD in place, I strongly believe the bonds will be highly attractive when launched.

Am I’m heavily backing them to be sold. At which point the re-rate will be sharp and fast. AIMVHO.

Verde, know that pain... Bought SOLG at 2.5p, set a limit order which triggered at 5p... Bought again at 6 then sold at 8... Facepalm!
Also bought BDEV at around 86p after the crash, sold at £1 then they went to £6...
There’s more too! Guess at least I pick some good shares, not selling any now until commercial production and only if we have a fair valuation then...

I go on holiday for 1 week and we hit 16p...

The moral of this story is I really need to go on holiday more....

Brad, I would imagine a large proportion of the younger employees there are already prepping cv’s and wording letters of introduction. When we get within site of the main goal, I’m sure there will be plenty of experienced applicants to fill the required vacancies...

As somebody else put recently, Que sera sera... My strategy is to keep buying whenever It hits a new low, most recently at 13.4-14.5... If it goes lower then so be it, I’ll try again.

At some point it will be the bottom and I will be pleased I took the opportunity!

Until then, my new car and Maldives holiday aspirations are on hold... But I’m happy anyway :-)

Fwiw I am very confident that the bonds will be sold, although JPM are not obliged to purchase any remaining unsold, as their own financing rests upon them selling then surely the benefit of such a purchase will have been mooted...

Plus the U.K. banks, plus the SWF’s who will have invested for a reason and will have allocated funds to follow up that investment when required... In my layman opinion...

Thanks! Really looking forward to that now!! Looks like the PR machine is in swing, more of the same tomorrow...

Better say Boom and £1 party too, see Im languishing in 55th spot... :-|

I know it’s blue but the odds are much higher today so will have to call the bet 15 +\-, not letting my shares go that easy!... ??

I do my calculations based on a forward PE of 12 but believe up to 20 would be achievable due to the fundamentals of the project...

Not that easy Chesh, same terms.. Over 15p I win! I’ll take a pickled egg and a wham bar...

Today’s bet is 2 SXX shares....

And a packet of pork scratchings!

Very close Chesh...I owe you 1 share! Will need to buy it as I cant go to an odd number... At least that will start the RNS rumours tomorrow... ;-)

1 SXX share that we finish on 15p or more today...?

It’s JPM who devised the ST2 package, all of it. They dictated the terms in order to release the main component which is the RCF. SM cannot just go to somebody else and get more favourable terms for the HY bond, we have to follow the JPM plan which let’s be honest has been devised to significantly financially benefit JPM. They will also IMO already have in place other financial institutions who are in the market for higher risk bonds.

A lot of financial back scratching has already and will continue to occur regarding the whole ST2 package. Any other ‘outsiders’ such as the U.K. big banks will have to wait until the prospectus is published and bonds are released to now get involved.

I’m sure they will all have an element of HY bonds in their portfolios though and wouldn’t be surprised if they are early purchasers...

All IMVHO however

Sheep, why do you assume the banks have cold feet? The convertibles were sold in no time at all and except from buying on the open market there has been no other way for them to be involved at this stage...
Once the agencies see the bond prospectus and give a rating then it’s all go and they can get involved, IMO the bonds will be sold without an issue, the question is at what rate? 10-12% is the target and 15% the cap, after recent events I would say 12-15% is the realistic range.

Yes

Just maintaining continuity with the Stage 2 financing prospectus... If it wasn’t in there it would be questioned.

Covering their bases... In a few days we will have another 'Millionaire maker' or 'How Sirius minerals will make you rich' effort so either way they can then publish the I told you so we are great article in 12 months...

Utter tripe!

Perhaps he just arrived back from 2027 using 1.21 gigawatts and a flux capacitor...? Maybe we are all wealthy in the future...

Id like to see the crystal ball for 2024... Should think we will have shipped the required amount for the JOE awards to be issued, circa 5Mt...