Member Info for Roobans

I would suggest it is more about certain contractual conditions or FCA regulations than any concern about the direction of the company. Maybe it’s just he thinks it would look bad picking up over 5m shares on the cheap when the rest of us get a handful....

I have no reservations that ST2 is anything but in the bag and coincidentally it seems the worlds largest sovereign wealth fund and their very highly paid and intelligent investment bankers agree.

IMO The pain has been absorbed, will it drop to 15-16p again? Possibly but will just dig deeper if it does. I imagine more companies who may have better knowledge of the bond offer will be interested in getting in below the 18p bond price but can also see a ceiling of around 18p for a while because of this...

To be fair this is a start-up no different to tech startups except for finding it more difficult to secure funding. With tech startups the early investors know and expect further fund raises and they are prepared to follow their money to maintain market share.
The real LTH way to play this is to invest early as many have but with every fundraise you must follow your money and buy more to maintain your original investment percentage.

Difficult for some as they have thrown everything at it or may be subject to ISA/SIPP limits. I hedged a little before financing which has left me in a better position to follow my money now.

I won’t maintain the same percentage as pre-funding launch but won’t be far off, enough that a significantly lower sp will still achieve my pre-funding targets.

I am committed to this company and fully believe it will reach the end goal, the relative cost of maintaining my share now will be worth it in 5 years.

Norge bank disclosure.... Now that is a large sovereign wealth fund! Circa £900bn invested worldwide... Lends credibility to the project!

On this board at the moment and not much reasoning...

Yes the financing was worse than most expected but trying to get money out of banks in the current world economic climate with the recent memories of the 2008 banking meltdown is probably much more difficult than anybody here can imagine...

My worst case was 3bn extra at around 18p so it went below that, yes it’s a blow but I’d saved some capital and traded some shares as insurance. I’m now in buying mode as the black and white is pretty simple when emotions are removed.

Yes there is still some uncertainty over the financing but I’m happy we are 90% there whereas 1 week ago it was 50/50.

Production is around 2 years away all going well, will the share price be at 16p when the mine starts producing? I highly doubt it! With around 10bn shares in issue I would say worse case it will be 30p and best case 40-50p. Even if it only limps to 25p by production that’s around 50% return on anything bought now. Not bad!

What’s done is done, if you have saved some capital for ST2 announcement then remove emotion and take your chance, if you haven’t saved then you were only gambling anyway... You lost, pick yourself up and move on with a lesson learned.

I’ve come to see this week that this board is nothing more than a medium for those who have no clue to vent their frustrations, myths and dreams, with a few notable exceptions!

Thank you to those exceptions, I’ll pop in every now and then once the madding crowd has dissipated...

This refers to convertibles with no fixed price, usually issued for much smaller and more speculative projects. The convertible notes to be issued for ST2 and the ST1 notes have a fixed conversion price and therefore convert to a fixed amount of stock.

Due to this it is significantly in the interest of holders for the share price to increase as it directly affects the profit they can make on conversion. Adversely as the price goes up however, there is more scope to short the stock to cover unforeseen events.

To put it bluntly, this term and the mechanism it refers to has no connection to either ST1 or ST2 financing.

That’s hugely Optimistic Jim? (Not the real JimG im sure) as with the now forecast share capital of circa 10bn that would equate to £1.8bn being handed back... Not beyond the realms of possibility but relies on selling 20Mta at a price north of $250/t with no debt payments.

Remotely possible but now we are talking in the 15-20 years time frame...

Just in time for my retirement! I’ll go with it ;-)

Medium term target for me is 70-80p, the £ party will have to wait until post 2027 IMVHO!

Personally I can’t see 22p but I also am not prepared to hedge my bets on seeing much lower, I sold half at 21p due to being stung several times... Couldn’t buy first thing but put all back in for around a 15% gain at 18.1p. Have a Lombard facility to increase if it goes towards 15 but either way this is now a switch off and hold until 10Mta whereby EBITDA should be around £800m-£1b.

Even with 8bn shares in circulation this should still equate to around £1 per share making many here members of the million pound portfolio club!

Bottom drawer and back to sleep, good luck and well done to all patient investors!

FWIW my take is there will be an issue to cover $250-300m, priced around current SP so in the region of 1bn shares... I personally would be happy with this level and believe any negative reaction (if any at all) would be very short lived.

Hopefully find out soon but again am not overly confident it will be before May...

GL all

article again from the poor journalism brigade! If you look at the history for Citadel they actually declared their short position in June 2017 and in fact decreased it at the start of January. They have recently increased it again but only by approx 1.75m shares so hardly warrants the headline and corresponding text from the telegraph article.

It does seem there are a few in the city who are biased against the company for whatever reason, it could be as simple as the project is located near their holiday cottage but that is pure conjecture.

Either way, the mine will be financed. The current contractors would not have entered into long term agreements without some some reasonable assurance of this. The price will probably drift in the short term and drop on funding news but the drops become relatively less from this range.

I’m happy holding for now and will look to add on any further sp weakness.

Thanks for the responses, it really isn’t as bad as the market reaction dictates then. It’s no wonder financially vested organisations prefer a much small exposure to retail investors than we currently have.

Clocking off until the next RNS alert... Hold tight not long to go until 2021 and beyond!

Myo, my memory is not perfect but I thought CF said in the call that the additional funding package would be the final piece of the puzzle I.e would only be released once the structure of the other three debt tranches was secured.

I know we will be spending the additional money first but I would like to know the whole package is fixed before being hi with what is likely to be significant dilution for the additional...

I could have misheard though...

Theres always wonga or payday loans Andy - he'll get is sorted one way or another... Most here now wont be here in 10 years thats guaranteed!

One day a lot of people will see this company under headlines such as 'Dividend darling Sirius minerals...' and remember they used to have shares and will wish they had kept them....

I for one will be dusting off my passwords to claim my hard earned (through stress and patience) rewards...

The contracted sales amounts are not there solely because in year 1, production will be limited by how much they can physically extract. A simple understanding of how the mineral will be mined would tell you this, however your knowledge and therefore intentions have been betrayed by your foolish comment.

Personally, I am unmoved by the update as yes it may mean slightly more money required for debt servicing but relative to the project capex this is minor. There are advantages of entering the high yield bond market as stated in the CC so while more costly it could provide other financial benefit further down the line. The construction and S&M updates were both very positive and I like the stability shown in these areas which will also aid financing discussions.

I previously posted I thought an issue of 2bn shares would accompany ST2 at around $0.25 to cover a large part of the additional funding requirement identified in september. This was a worst case scenario at the time and I stick with this being the case albeit with the potential to increase up to 3bn as a worst case.

CF does not sound worried about ST2 completion so I have faith this will be achieved before we run out of operating cash. I fully expect sentiment to drop the sp in the short term but at the end of the day I am investing in a mine and not just a portion of its development. I won’t be selling until the mine is in production and I understand the risk I bear because of this.

I have added recently at 20.4 and I will be adding further on any equity raise. Approaching my average and in 10 years I’m sure I will not regret taking the opportunities to reduce my average.

Even if we hit production with 10bn shares the returns will be impressive for those who can switch off and wait.

All my own personal opinion and could very well be absolute garbage, GL and good night again...

$400m

When dilution is due to raising cash simply to cover costs then this can be the case but plenty of recent raises have caused the share price to increase well beyond the price equity was issued at.

In this case the financing to complete a project that has huge margins, proven demand and strong geopolitical stability will mean that the main risk involved in the project disappears. Reduced risk will equal a correction towards the NPV. This will be adjusted to the new share capital but IMHO the removal of the main risk will see a huge increase in demand which will more than compensate for any equity issued.

Any knee-jerk reaction selling will be happily absorbed by those more schooled in the company/project, alongside of which should see increased ii buying.

I would think if there is a drop it will be relatively small and short lived...

Recommended wwguk!!

Obviously no point discussing before we see the details of ST2, but £4-5 if you actually do the maths is not in the realms of fantasy as you suggest. To put it very simply, a price per tonne of $250 would equal an EBITDA of around $4bn. Industry typical PE ratio of 10 and we get an Mcap of around $40bn.

Split by roughly current forecast shares in issue at full production of just under 6bn would give a share price of around $7 so £6 very achievable depending on exchange rates at the time...

Very speculative but definitely not fantasy...

Nice find Mr dt!! Thats my local... Live and work in AD so nice to see international coverage.

Trying to avoid the forums and quietly still building, intending to repatriate once in full production to capitalise on the tax free growth. With any luck it will facilitate my early retirement.

ATB

I would say to be safe we assume 8bn shares in circulation and a more favourable GBP/USD exchange rate of 0.65. Also cant see 100% being returned, would agree your div cover of 2 is closer to the mark, maybe slightly more but then we would have a return of around 4pps.

Fast forward a few years and with POLY4 discounted agreements now selling at market price for 20Mta and its a whole different outlook.. 10-15p depending on debt level and exchange rate.