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;-) All good!

Calm down Vin, we’re on the same side... Just wanted to correct the OO statement because there is a large difference between 213m and nearly 2bn.

All the same they will be happily absorbed, just not as optimistic as you regarding 10 days... Fingers crossed tho...

However I am hoping a large majority of the ii’s will target more than a quick 20% and hold, but we’ve seen what drives the bankers!!

It’s not just the OO that was 15p remember, the full placing of nearly 2bn shares will be issued at 15p... Plus the day traders extending the churn

The higher it goes does make me worry that some ii’s May just bank a 30-40% profit and sell as soon as the placing shares are admitted... Even so I don’t think with the current volume it will be too long to churn those before the steady climb towards production... Wouldn’t want to bet it won’t drop down either if the big boys can see the real potential...

Been trying dummy sells all day, no joy until just now and got 18.50 for 200k

Nice idea and very possible... Ive traded a few times with around 50% success. Im not trying this time as I feel more comfortable spending some extra cash to get the extra I could make with a successful trade.

Dont think you'll be the muppet of Sirius St, that accolade will more than likely go to those who get bored or disenchanted with the journey here and sell before it realises its potential.

I am convinced there will be a lot of regrets in the 5-10 year range, Id say a fair few within 2 years once we break the teens and twenties for the last time...

Good luck

MITM - I considered this morning and couldnt get a quote, cant get a quote now either... Id probably get it wrong so am busy freeing cash for any retrace to 15 whereby I'll add some more...

I have a new target with the proposed dilution that will keep me roughly where I was pre ST2. All its costing is buying a new car and watching it depreciate over the next 2 years...

Almost exactly the same price movement as yesterday... Def some trading going on, the difference being there are more professionals now doing it with better access...

KOH - They also said getting planning permission in the NYMNP was rather unlikely, and then getting financing was also rather unlikely...

As long as we keep completing the rather unlikely tasks I'm happy, would have preferred 2bn dilution but grin and bear the 4bn and will live frugally for another couple of years to enable increasing my stake...

As long as the mine starts producing commercially I don't really care because if it doesn't it will be rather likely I'll lose my entire investment.

I rounded up as share capital should not quite be 10bn and also company is predicting an average sales price for the first 5 years of $171/t. Im assuming this will start from first commercial tonnage delivery in 2022...

'The Company’s business plan assumes a POLY4 price of US$171 per tonne over the first five years of production in real 2018 U.S. dollars, following which prices are assumed to rise, towards and beyond the nutrient value of the product, i.e., the value of the nutrients of which it is composed (US$225 per tonne as of January 2019).'

Facepalm! It should have read 200-230...

KOH, from my understanding it would be possible...

2029 is marked as 20Mta so lets say we are at 18Mta by 2028, we should be coming to the end of some of the initial contracts and pricing closer to market ($225/t as of Jan 19 - variable obviously) So lets take a price of $160 * 18m = Revenue of $2.9bn, margin of 70% (mid-range) gives earnings of $2bn.
Forward PE may be higher as once the contracts expire we will be selling at market price or even a premium to, this will be known and therefore I could see a forward P/E of 12-15 which would give an Mcap of $24b-$30b.

Even with 10bn shares thats around 20-23pps.

Pointless debating it as its 10 years away with a lot of variables but just trying to highlight it is a possibility..

Good point Chilting, one I had overlooked...

My OO entitlement is 36,363, I am requesting the additional to take it to 50,000 total but would not be at all surprised if I dont get it... For circa 13k shares Im not that worried about paying market price after the deadline tho...

Fred, personally i bought yesterday and thought about taking the very small profit this morning and waiting but then slapped myself and reminded myself its not worth the risk and Im buying for 2024 anyway.... By which point your musings now will seem irrelevant.

The Open offer at 15p is limited to basically 4.5% of the share capital and only for qualifying shareholders, any that dont take their full entitlement will get distributed to some/all of those who took their full entitlement and requested more via the excess application...

There are no other 15p shares available and at the current price I would say all of those who are still active with their investments will take the offer. A small minority who either are away on holiday, do not follow their investments or who cannot release further capital, and those who have become emotionally involved and now berate the ST2 deal will not take their shares - this will be a very small amount to be divided by a large proportion asking for more... IMVHO

the final price opportunities for averaging down for a lot of those in at ST1, and already passed many who timed it well post ST1... Those who understand the financing a lot better will probably be more confident on the successful completion of ST2 and start building positions, as Norges have done...

I only use Google Finance for price info... I find it the most accurate... Incidentally now showing as 18.6... Flying start!

LSE prices are not accurate until 8.20 as they are delayed 20mins unless you pay premium...

the OO relies on every shareholder taking up their full allotment, the amount available as per the prospectus (218m) is the current share captial divided by 22...

If every shareholder takes the OO then any 'Excess Applications' will be unsuccessful as per pg92 in the prospectus:

'There is no limit on the amount of New Ordinary Shares that can be applied for by Qualifying Shareholders under the Excess Application Facility, save that the maximum amount of New Ordinary Shares to be allotted under the Excess Application Facility will be limited by the maximum size of the Open Offer, being 218,048,057 New Ordinary Shares. The total number of Open Offer Shares is fixed and will not be increased in response to any excess applications. Applications pursuant to the Excess Application Facility will therefore only be satisfied to the extent that other Qualifying Shareholders do not apply for their Open Offer Entitlements in full.'

If say the OO take up is 50% then you potentially would be awarded 50%+ of your OO entitlement in excess shares but the allocation of this is entirely in the BOD's discretion and it may not be that simple...

Personally I think the take up will be circa 80%+ and therefore excess applications will receive some shares but it will more than likely be between 20-40% of your OO entitlement...

All guessing and if you don't ask you don't get so I'm asking for more...