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Credit where credit is due! Definitely agree with that... Would have been very easy for RG to issue equity albeit diluting his considerable stake, however they have streamlined, trained and improved efficI envy during a tough economic climate. The tide is turning for O&G and for China and RG is now positioned to gain strong returns from it... The diversification into India could prove to be very lucrative also, would this have happened without the Chinese slowdown? This also keeps us busy during the slow winter in China... Still a way to go but I think from here it becomes slightly downhill.... Anyone else been collecting in the 2p range?
�8m Mcap for a company with net assets of over $50m? $15m contract just waiting for contract and over $100m of work scheduled for GDG in the next few years... Def its too low but need to see the cash coming in, if we can get mobilised for ONGC this winter and then hit the ground running in the spring for the Chinese then hopefully H1 next year will be multiples and EOY's should see us closer to 10p... The wait is nearly over one way or another...
They are significantly better than last year but we need to see a zero on the end to start the ball moving here... Still need the ONGC contract and a big one from GDG....
mmm... Cash in the bank? Kicking off the ODP...? Wonder where that cash will be heading soon?...
Even if not, anyone who does a little digging here can easily see that this has the potential to multiply very quickly when the MOB orders come through... Personally think it will be next year that the big contracts will come in, final results for 2018 will see some fireworks... Still a long wait but at 2p worth the risk and the wait...
And this bit... Furthermore, on 31 July 2017, the Company announced that NDRC has approved a Project Code for the Overall Development Plan (ODP) on the Greka Shizhuang South Zaoyuan portion of the Main Block (GSS), concluding that the ODP does not require an approval process and only needs to be registered. This results in the drilling of an additional 42 vertical wells and 47 LiFaBriC wells by 2020.
The drop has already come for SXX imo, I bought between 17-20p rode out the high and happy to sit, topping up at current levels. 25p will be the bottom and that wont be for long. New TorPs and then St 2 financing will see it hold above 50p, downhill to production then...
The black and white of it is the Mcap of the company is currently sitting at roughly 25% of the Net asset value... So, hugely discounted simply on poor sentiment for anything to do with China/Oil & Gas... Hence the move into India, so far only small contract wins there due to the O&G slump but that will cover operating costs and leave a little cash left over, nothing to write home about. But, they are looking to increase CBM production significantly so a foot in the door could be very lucrative in the coming years... RG does not dilute so we are safe there, and there is enough small contract cash coming in to keep us going for the next few years. China is slowly warming up and there is a huge need to switch away from coal burning. GDL is set up nicely to reap the eventual rewards when the Chinese start investing again. O&G will start to rebound from 2018-2020 due to the huge cuts in exploration and new projects, peak oil demand forecast for 2030-2035. Once the rebound starts, big campaigns from GDG and the SOE's will again see income here in the tens of £millions, when this is about to happen the rerate will be very quick, nobody knows when - I predict 2019. However, one big contract with Mobilisation and this will fly, once the results show the $m's, sentiment will return and underpin the rise in the 15-20p area... Could be months, could be years... If you never sold then no point now - I sold after RH left fortunately but have been building at sub 3p, lowest buy 1.8 so far... Up to 1m shares and happy to lose it for the potential returns we could see here. But thats my business... Other big play is SXX, probably a similar time frame for decent returns... Patience will be rewarded IMO... GL
When the contracts are in the tens of $m's then it will move, $2m is not a great deal historically for this company... Still worth the risk at these prices IMO, with what is forecast in China and India I would be surprised if we werent much closer to 10p within a year...
by the end of next year I would hope that dummy sell will be offered 10p+ once we get cracking on the GDG and India contracts...
Yup... Particularly like this bit: 'Drilling of an additional 42 vertical wells and 47 LiFaBriC wells by 2020 for an investment of c.US$82 million (US$49.2 million net to Green Dragon)' Thats nearly $100m of business coming our way...
He actually is asked about funding for GDG specifically where he states he will not look at equity fund raising but has options of RBL's or project financing. This is what would pay for the drilling so GDL can expect cash payment. He then says that they may consider equity funding for the subsidiaries if required, considering we have just been provided with a loan for immediate cash requirements and also the confirmation of ONGC contract which will shortly bring roughly $5m a year I would doubt that equity fund raising will be required. RG owns 60% of the shares so why would he dilute his own holding? All this needs is time, the GDG contract and some positive end of year results... Maybe next year but looks and sounds like definitely EOY 2018 will be transformational (from present position) anyway...
The spread is never as bad as it looks on here but usually pretty bad due to such low volume... A lot of sleeping dogs holding from the good old days who will not sell at these prices and know that just 2 decent contracts and we will again get above 10p. I have bought recently at 2.85 and happy to see that stay put for a few years, average down is a good plan - below 3p shouldnt be too difficult an average to get to and fair value. Expect a minimum 18month hold and up to 3 years to get a decent return but it should come eventually... Cant help but smile at the oxymoron that is your LSE handle and your ill researched purchase here... GL
Sub 3p seems reasonable for now but the potential is there for a multibag in a very short period of time subject to getting the contracts and mobilisation news...
The Chinese and Indian players only trust this company because it is UK listed, I would suggest it would not be in his own interest to take it private.
I bought initially at 11p then started selling at 17.5.... dropping down through 8p i bought back although much smaller amount and sold at 5p for a loss... Have recently been accumulating a modest amount anytime under 3p which I think offers fair risk/reward for the current state of play... Def has the potential to hit 20p again but need the money in the bank before sentiment returns...
Well we needed new blood and its arrived, maybe now they should have a look at what we do... Yes, there is definite multibag potential here but not from this contract - this is merely pocket money to keep us going until the real ones hit from China. Have a look at GDG latest investor presentation: https://viz.tools.investis.com/green_dragon_gas/efr/live/Apr-2017/index.html#12 bottom line of page 12, Launch GSS LiFaBric drilling programme... Who does their drilling? GDL. How much is a LiFaBric well worth to GDL? $1.5m Now have a look at Dec 2016 GDG presentation: https://viz.tools.investis.com/green_dragon_gas/efr/live/Dec-2016/index.html#10 Page 10 - Have a look at how many they plan to drill, maybe just 2 this year, but then 9 in 2018... Not to mention further contracts due in both China and India. This company is well below NAV as China is in a slump and will continue to be for a while, 1-3 year timeframe we could easily see this at 10x current price IMO. A long way to go and with the volume we have currently the spread will kill any day traders... This share is still a HOLD but GL to the newcomers...
Some decent working capital and ability to pay RG his loan back... Need the GDG contract now to kick start the turnaround...
Good buy at 2.8p potentially... If we get the news expected this year and on the balance sheet for next year do you think we can be at 10p by Jan?